Joshua Van Ryswyk

On the Grains Grains are up again in overnight trade. Concern that a prolonged bout of soggy weather for much of the Midwest will greatly slow planting progress remains the driving force. Yesterday’s weekly export sales were at least mid-range vs. expectations for beans but at the low end for corn and wheat and didn’t even make the low end for SBM. Yesterday’s announcement of a looming rail strike in Canada could halt their grain shipping if prolonged and potentially shift more business to the U.S. (More on other Ag implications below.)   Even though Brazil is down to its last 10% of the crop to harvest, rains have been so severe in the southern tip that 2-5 million tonnes of beans and corn might actually be lost and their crop estimates were already well below USDA’s. We’ve set a target for selling more old-crop and the first 10% of new crop beans based on the July contract. It shows first resistance at 1225.  This content is for members only.Log In Register

On the Grains Grains are firmer in overnight trade with beans leading gains. USDA reported crush in March a little lower than expected but still at an all-time record for any month. It was still enough to hint USDA's current forecast for the year is too low. Rapidly improving basis for beans in Brazil add credence to what private estimates and their own CONAB have insisted for months that their crop is much lower than what USDA has estimated. Weekly ethanol stats from EIA were supportive for corn. Production was higher and stocks lower than trade expectations. YTD data still suggests current corn usage for ethanol projected by USDA is solid and if anything, a little low. Crude oil took a big tumble, when stocks rose by 7.3 million barrels vs. expectations for a 1.5 million barrel decline. On the other hand, diesel stocks fell by 732,000 barrels and are 7% below the 5-year average. Even wheat is firmer overnight despite welcome rain forecasts for parched HRW areas because it won't stop raining in key SRW states and could now start hurting condition ratings. The forecasts for continued rainy weather slowing planting progress are an underlying supportive factor, even though…

On the Grains Markets are mostly weaker in overnight trade. The weather outlook keeps getting wetter for much of the Corn Belt over the next couple weeks, so the planting pace "lead" compared to normal we have at present is likely to rapidly shrink and could even fall behind if the forecasts verify. Yesterday was a blitz of negatives for the grain market rooted in outside markets going into "risk off" mode ahead of this week's Fed meetings that end today. They're expected to stay hawkish on rates in their comments, more than hinting not to expect any cuts in the foreseeable future due to stubborn inflation despite slowing in GDP growth – the very definition of "stagflation" at time that stocks have only recently hit record highs. The DJIA took such a beating yesterday that we had the first lower monthly close after five straight monthly increases. They're down again overnight. The monthly DJIA chart also shows the brief poke above 40,000 was the upper Bollinger band and the Stochastics oscillator in the "overbought" zone since last fall was turning down. It spilled into the grains because the dollar made a new high on prospects for interest to stay…

On the Grains Grains and soybeans are steady to weak in overnight trade with soybean meal a notable exception. It's up again and punched through some chart resistance overnight. It was up strongly yesterday on news from Argentina. They ship most of their crop as soybean meal and not only is their harvest far behind normal (25% vs. 48%) their oilseed crushers union has gone on strike. Even though rain moved into many areas Thursday and through the weekend, yesterday's Crop Progress Report showed corn planted 27%, pretty much what the trade expected and still ahead of last year's 23% and the 5-year average of 22%. On a state-by-state basis, Missouri, Arkansas and Kansas have the biggest leads over last year and average but Minnesota and Iowa have big leads as well and these 5 states account for a big part of the national lead. As for "laggards", CO, IN, KY, and AL are the only states that are several points behind normal and the rest are all either on track with normal or a few points ahead. Next week, we expect to see the lead shrink back closer to normal with widespread rain through last weekend lingering as it…

On the Grains Grains are steady-to-mixed in overnight trade to start the week. It was a very stormy weekend with over 100 tornadoes, frequent hail and widespread rain over much of the Midwest and Delta, that will slow planting considerably. Yet the pace was brisk through the early part of last week so today’s planting progress report should still show planting on pace with normal because we were a little ahead of normal the prior week.   Wheat was the clear leader in the grains last week on the unexpectedly sharp drop in wheat condition for HRW that more than offset the best ratings for SRW in decades. We’ll likely see further declines in today’s report, the rains have missed up to 40% of HRW wheat in western KS, the OK panhandle and W. Texas. Globally, conditions for wheat continue to deteriorate in southern Russia, eastern Ukraine and parts of western and southern Australia. This content is for members only.Log In Register

WHEAT RECCO UPDATE DAY 2: On 4/23 we advised SRW and HRS producers to sell remaining '23 wheat but for HRW producers to sell just another 20% (to 85% sold) to squeeze a bit more from KC wheat on this rally. We've gotten that and advise HRW producers to complete '23 sales as well. FUEL NEEDS RECCO UPDATE DAY 2: On 11/16/23, we had advised covering 50% of fuel needs through spring. With ULSD futures at last fall's lows, we advise pricing needs through summer. (If your local retailers aren't offering prices that far out, contact your Commstock broker for ways to do so via hedging in futures.) On the Grains Grains are steady-to-weak in overnight trade. Heading into the weekend traders are focused on planting progress here and harvest progress in South America. Ours will be slowed by extensive wet weather beginning today into early next week while significant progress was likely made through yesterday. Brazil's bean harvest is in the home stretch but will now be slowed by heavy rains in the southern end down through Argentina where harvest for both corn and beans are already well behind normal. Weekly export inspections for corn were terrific. At 1.3 million tonnes they blew away…

WHEAT RECCO UPDATE: On 4/23 we advised SRW and HRS producers to sell remaining '23 wheat but for HRW producers to sell just another 20% (to 85% sold) to squeeze a bit more from KC wheat on this rally. We got that, and today advice HRW producers to complete '23 sales as well. FUEL NEEDS RECCO UPDATE: On 11/16/23, we had advised covering 50% of fuel needs through spring. With ULSD futures now at last fall's lows, we advise covering fuel needs through summer with local retailers, but if yours are not offering bids contact your Commstock broker for ways to do so via hedging in futures. On the Grains Grains are steady to soft in overnight trade. Even wheat is mixed at best. Rainy weather is moving in to slow planting through the weekend and into next week, but planters have been rolling aggressively through the early part of this week. The reality is that it's too soon to threaten any serious delays and the rain is still welcome for replenishing soil reserves in most of the country. Ethanol data wasn't helpful yesterday. Weekly production was down again and the 2nd lowest in more than a year and stocks declined only slightly. Yet there's…

NEW WHEAT RECCOS DAY 2: On prior advice SRW producers are 80% sold on '23 wheat and 15% hedged on '24 wheat. HRW and HRS producers are 65% sold on '23 wheat and nothing sold on new crop. SRW and HRS producers are advised to use this rally to sell all remaining old crop, while HRW producers are advised to sell another 20% (to get to 85% sold) but hang on to the last 15% to squeeze a little more out of this rally with HRW crop ratings declining. On the Grains Grains are steady-to-mixed in overnight trade after a strong start to the week and hints that funds are becoming more inclined to lighten up on huge net short positions than add to them. The weather outlook is turning wet again for much of the Midwest and central Plains from tomorrow through the weekend, which will likely slow the planting pace reported in Monday's Crop Progress report. Ukraine's Ag Ministry predicts about a 10% decline in grain output this year dry weather is beginning to tone down Russian prospects as well. Further, in response to the new major financing for Ukraine moving through the Senate and to Biden's desk, Russia is expected…

NEW WHEAT RECCOS DAY 1: On prior advice SRW producers are 80% sold on '23 wheat and 15% hedged on '24 wheat. HRW and HRS producers are 65% sold on '23 wheat and nothing sold on new crop. SRW and HRS producers are advised to use this rally to sell all remaining old crop, while HRW producers are advised to sell another 20% (to get to 85% sold) but hang on to the last 15% to squeeze a little more out of this rally with HRW crop ratings declining. On the Grains Grains are firm in overnight trade as of 6am, with wheat the clear leader as it was yesterday before traders had even seen the big hit to HRW wheat ratings released after the close (more on that later). As for weekly export inspections, corn was the only big winner. At 1.624 million tonnes it easily beat the top end of expectations at 1.5 million. Beans and wheat were within the range, but towards the lower end. After the close, we got the weekly Crop Progress Report. It showed corn planting at 12%. That met expectations, was on par with last year and 2 points ahead of average. On a state by…

On the Grains Grains were mixed in overnight trade with corn and beans on the soft side but wheat prices firming as of 6am. Weekend news was dominated by both events and non-events in both DC and the geopolitical arena: The major event was House passage of $95 billion in 3 separate aid packages for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. It's likely to clear the Senate easily but it happened only through Dem support that offset GOP opposition because the bills lacked any funding for U.S. border control and have Speaker Mike Johnson still facing criticism within the party. The major non-events making news are seemingly lessened risks of widening regional war with few signs either Israel or Iran want to trade blows again for reasons discussed below. That has oil prices quiet along with ideas OPEC+ has enough unused capacity to mitigate disruption of Iranian supplies. The Commitments of Traders report out after markets closed was somber news for those of us hoping this market will need to build in some weather risk and perhaps trigger more short covering by funds. It showed that through last Tuesday, those funds had actually been adding to already-large net short positions in all…