04/30/2024 Argentine Woes Have SBM the Unlikely Leader for Soy Complex

On the Grains Grains and soybeans are steady to weak in overnight trade with soybean meal a notable exception. It’s up again and punched through some chart resistance overnight. It was up strongly yesterday on news from Argentina. They ship most of their crop as soybean meal and not only is their harvest far behind normal (25% vs. 48%) their oilseed crushers union has gone on strike. Even though rain moved into many areas Thursday and through the weekend, yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed corn planted 27%, pretty much what the trade expected and still ahead of last year’s 23% and the 5-year average of 22%. On a state-by-state basis, Missouri, Arkansas and Kansas have the biggest leads over last year and average but Minnesota and Iowa have big leads as well and these 5 states account for a big part of the national lead. As for “laggards”, CO, IN, KY, and AL are the only states that are several points behind normal and the rest are all either on track with normal or a few points ahead. Next week, we expect to see the lead shrink back closer to normal with widespread rain through last weekend lingering as it…