Joshua Van Ryswyk

On the Grains It’s hard to believe as dry is it is that we’re stuck in the mud, metaphorically speaking, on these markets. Lack of conviction on either side leaves us range bound waiting for some news to break us out of this channel. Yesterday’s impressive export sales failed to gain much additional topside strength. Corn sales came in at 66.3 million bushels which brings out totals to 647 mbu for the 24/25 shipping season compared to last year’s 566 mbu. History tells us that demand rallies are to be bought and production rallies are to be sold, yet we are unsure what type of rally this us. While that seems like an easy enough question to answer, yet this feels like both as we have excellent exports and production issues south of the equator. Will it rain, won’t it rain in Brazil- that is the question. Some weather maps had increased rain chances in the driest of areas in Brazil, yet till it hits the ground, and of any meaningful amount its limited risk off mentality. Now shifting even farther south, Argentina’s corn plantings were reported at 10% this week, 8% last week, 12% last year and 17% on…

On the Grains Harvest pressure as we turn the page towards the weekend could be the theme for today and tomorrow. There is basically zero chance of rain to slow anybody down in the Corn Belt. Yesterday’s release of a well followed brokerage house came in at 184 bpa on corn was up 1.1 bpa. While corn didn’t react yesterday to this I’m sure we will have some sort of a breather heading into the weekend. EIA ethanol production numbers were positive yesterday as well. Traders were expecting a slightly lower print yet got a 21,000 barrels per day increase, currently at 1.015 mbp. Flash sale have been positive, 195,000 MT announced yesterday morning, and weekly export totals released this morning will be watched closely. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Good morning, yesterday’s market appears to be a little more than Turn Around Tuesday as we continue to grind higher this morning, up 4 on corn and 5 on soybeans. While there is little argument that the outside geopolitical news yesterday, Iran shooting missiles into Israel, brought crude oil and wheat to life pulling corn with it. Soybeans on the other hand had a wide trading range, wanting to come along for the ride but with harvest in full swing struggled to gain much momentum. Funds are estimated to have covered most of the net short position in beans and oil while adding to the meal longs. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Good morning, yesterday’s USDA stocks report was everything that we thought and maybe a slight touch more. Corn was the leader, as usually is in September stocks report, although we are lacking follow-through this morning and the energy complex is pulling gains down with it. Crude oil is off $1.24 this morning at $66.92 eyeing the low from September 10th of $64.61. Increased supply from OPEC+, set to unwind production cuts around December, and poor economic data from China. The latest reports show that they had a 5th consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activities. While China has stepped in to booster its economy recently, it’s going to take time. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

Reco Day 3: Sell 20% of 2024 soybeans at $11 March futures. Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Cattle Trade Hits the Brakes You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. https://youtu.be/axy0jzWrZCE On the Grains USDA stocks reports are out this morning, all eyes will be on the quarterly stocks, which there have been September surprises before. In the last four of five years that has been the case, with the 2019 and 2020 being the biggest outliers. Give last year’s crop, the strong basis in the west, we would expect the burden of proof to be on the bears. Not one year in the last 20+ years has USDA increased the previous year’s production materially. The average reduction in those four of five years has been 193 million bushels. The most likely scenario is for 2023 yield to be unchanged and the adjustments made in the Feed/Residual category as exports, for all intensive purposes, came in right on trajectory. Which leads me to the next point, 2024 crop finish is less than ideal in the northern belt, what does the September 2025 stock report look like if no revisions are…

On the Grains Good morning, finally Friday, although it doesn’t matter during harvest season other than we generally see pre-hedge at the close, I would expect that the western belt makes good progress this weekend while the east may be out for a few days. Today we get the Commitment of Traders report, while we all know that data is delayed, one would expect to see the funds cover beans and corn by lightening up on the shorts. Now, here is what I will be watching, I get the fund covering action that is taking place since it’s the end of the quarter, end of the month, however, if we see this continue after we turn the page to October then we got something working in the grains. Yesterday we put a reco out on March soybeans at $11.00, the November 100 DMA sits right at $10.79, a 31-cent carry would give us a little wiggle room to get that filled. If we can get a push to that we are justified in making some additional sales, if the rains start falling in Brazil it will be hard to get ahead of the market and make additional sales. This content…

On the Grains Good morning, Thursday’s export sales report will be the driver for the bulk of today. Overnight crude oil was down sharply, down over a dollar when writing this. Wheat appears to offer some help this morning, with Paris trading higher and domestics following. Paris Milling wheat has about $8 to go and check the recent highs. Yesterday’s flash sale to Mexico for 180,000 MT of corn was a boost but I was looking for some beans as well to confirm the rumors earlier in the week of 20 cargo trading, maybe we will see that today. Soybean futures continue to march higher today, eyeing the high from earlier in the week, just remember we’re nearing the weekend and will probably see some pre-hedging take place tomorrow. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains What a day yesterday in both corn and soybean. While we did hit some technical and sales objectives the market was unable to hold gains into the close. As we mentioned yesterday, China is going on a week long holiday starting October 1st and rumors of large purchase’s ahead of that week, up to 20 cargo’s or 1.2 MMT. The market has continued to slip since I started to write this report, now hovering at close in support. The US is the cheapest FOB beans and we should be getting that business, if it did actually happen.  Watch for flash sales today to confirm, without confirmation, yesterday’s high will remain formidable resistance.  This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Shockingly stable is what I will call the overnight trade after yesterday’s impressive rally, we have been able to hold the bulk of those gains. Does this corn market have the gusto to test the 100 DMA at $4.32 December? Time will tell, what I do know is that the phones were busy yesterday with producers paying attention to what was taking place in Chicago. While the conversations were related mostly to beans, plenty of calls were on where we needed to target orders on corn were also fielded as well- more on that later. It feels like we’re close to another wave of selling for both commodities. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Can Soybeans Actually Breakout? You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. https://youtu.be/f5jhTu0Ruuk On the Grains Harvest started rolling in most Midwest areas last week, yet we haven’t seen the harvest pressures on the board just yet. West of the Mississippi, we have plenty of bin space to fill before it get too exciting at the country elevator level but with 80’s and sunshine beans harvest will be in full swing shortly. In my 20 years of the grain business I’ve never seen the variability that is being reported this year. What is making it difficult to call on the yields, they’re so widely variable in such a short geographic area. Sometimes just a mile or two and we have a 30 bushel soybean yield difference. If we’re having that much difficulty it leads me to believe the USDA will basically kick the can down the road till the January report. CBOT futures have found the range they want to trade and just won’t breakout. December corn seems pretty content to hold $4.00 and November soybeans $10.00 although overnight we have found buying interest…