
On the Grains: Grains are steady-to-mixed in overnight trade as we go to press. Positioning ahead of Friday’s June WASDE report will be the dominant feature barring any major shifts in the weather outlook. Trade estimates are out and the most dominant metric for the balance sheets is the bottom line: Ending stocks. For old crop, on average, they’re expected to rise slightly for corn, soybeans and wheat on reduced usage estimates. Nonetheless, there’s a surprisingly wide range of estimates that allows potential for market-sensitive surprise: 2022-23 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks – Avg. 1.443 billion bu., up 66 million from last month with estimates ranging from 1.267 to 1.515 billion. 2022-23 U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks – Avg. 223 million bu., up 8 million from last month with estimates ranging from 200 to 255 million. 2022-23 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks – Avg. 605 million bu., up 7 million from last month with estimates ranging from 592 to 643 million. Somewhat surprisingly, the average trade estimates for new crop ending stocks are also up from last month and even wider variance in the range of estimates. I find the increases particularly surprising for corn and soybeans because initial crop condition ratings for both crops are below last…