On the Grains What is confusing is the comparison between this year and last year. Here, we are forecasting a record crop, with G/E ratings down 2% to 70% compared to the previous week, and 1% higher than last year. The national final corn yield came in at 179.3 BPA, yet we are trading as if that 181.5 BPA is in the bag. So, 1% better G/E rating is worth 2.2 BPA, got it. Alright, moving to carryover. Last June, the USDA projected a carryover of 2.097 billion bushels. This year, the USDA has 25 crops with a 1.75/1.8 billion carryout. Yet, on June 24, 2024, December corn futures settled at $4.42, last night, December 2025 corn futures traded at $4.32. You can also include world stocks, as they decreased from 285 MMT to 275.2 MMT. The Commitment of Traders report, released yesterday, showed that funds sold an additional 20,768 corn contracts, leaving them net short 181,788 contracts. In June 2024, the funds had a net short position of 212,000 contracts, and the price was higher. Sure, the maps show rain, and rain makes grain, yet it feels unlikely that 181 is in the cards with the broad swath of…
Read More