Joshua Van Ryswyk

On the Grains What is confusing is the comparison between this year and last year. Here, we are forecasting a record crop, with G/E ratings down 2% to 70% compared to the previous week, and 1% higher than last year. The national final corn yield came in at 179.3 BPA, yet we are trading as if that 181.5 BPA is in the bag. So, 1% better G/E rating is worth 2.2 BPA, got it. Alright, moving to carryover. Last June, the USDA projected a carryover of 2.097 billion bushels. This year, the USDA has 25 crops with a 1.75/1.8 billion carryout. Yet, on June 24, 2024, December corn futures settled at $4.42, last night, December 2025 corn futures traded at $4.32. You can also include world stocks, as they decreased from 285 MMT to 275.2 MMT. The Commitment of Traders report, released yesterday, showed that funds sold an additional 20,768 corn contracts, leaving them net short 181,788 contracts. In June 2024, the funds had a net short position of 212,000 contracts, and the price was higher. Sure, the maps show rain, and rain makes grain, yet it feels unlikely that 181 is in the cards with the broad swath of…

On the Grains What a weekend, the US did join in the destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites. A move that was suspected to take another week for President Trump’s decision, yet some analysts are saying that it might have taken too long already, and that the enriched uranium has already been moved. Iran has called for retaliation against the US as major cities go on high alert for sleeper cells. More on that below. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains Good morning, December corn has managed to recover half of what it lost on Monday as we await something of substance on the 45Z. The Senate version of the 45Z biofuels bill reportedly does include a reduced tax credit of 20% for foreign-sourced feedstocks.  Why we are using taxpayers’ dollars to fund foreign-sourced feedstocks is beyond me. Both the House and Senate bills will be extended to 2031. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Excerpt from the 6/12 Thursday Commstock Report: “Closing the border and deporting actual criminals is widely supported. After that there is a pause for reflection before going further. Most realize the degree to which our food supply chain is dependent on undocumented or falsely documented labor and are incredulous that they would purposely disrupt it, given the focus on food price inflation. Will ideology overcome good sense?” It appeared that President Trump was made aware of the big mistake that they are on the precipice of making, with their over-zealous immigration enforcement and deportation actions and stepped back from that brink last weekend. After vowing to protect farmers and that “changes were coming”. This is what followed: Breaking News: They called it a temporary pause in enforcement and deportations in this sector. You know how that goes… they could change it anytime. This a.m. it sounds like they did. The pause may have only lasted until Monday as word went out that this order was being at least partially reversed and the raids were back on. Packing plants, farms and hotels were targets for raids again. The backstory was that Ag Secretary Rollins…

On the Grains Good morning. Yesterday’s disappointing day in corn occurred despite excellent export inspections, as traders examined maps showing rain and improving crop condition ratings. Although the crop condition report was released after market close, there were expectations for an improvement in the scores. Iowa saw a slight decrease from last week, down 1% to 64% G/E, which is 10% above last year. Illinois increased 2% and was reported at 70%, compared to the previous year’s 65%, and Nebraska was up 4% at 73%, but well below last year’s 81%. December corn did test and held support yesterday, barely. The European weather forecast now indicates that arid conditions and increased temperatures are expected to persist for the next two weeks.  Argentine corn continues to be the cheapest export corn in the world. We will keep an eye on export sales this week to see when buyers switch origin. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! US Army Parade Review: I loved the DC parade. We played “where is Ethan?”, looking for Eric Relph’s son in the mix of soldiers. They found him for us, third over from the left in the first line behind the 4th Infantry flags. They should be proud, something for the family to look back on. His job is serious though…we thank him for his service. While the parade reportedly cost $45 mln… that is not that much if you amortize it over the 250 years of the US Army. It was a family friendly, not over the top event that projected the best of our military. It will aid recruiting. The US Navy has its 250th year anniversary coming this year too, October 13th. Most of the Navy is deployed. Maybe a fleet review at Norfolk? The birthday of the US Air Force is September 18th 1947, the Coast Guard officially began August 14th 1790 and the US Space Force is the newest branch of service, born December 20th 2019. How Long Does It Take for Iran to Admit Defeat? Israel's attack on Iran answered some questions that I did not have a clear explanation to before it…

On the Grains Marketing is much like assembling a 500-piece puzzle, you find two pieces that fit and keep working on it, only to later realize those are the incorrect pieces. Gradually, we construct the picture with greater confidence. Then, unexpectedly, a “Black Swan” appears and alters everything, much like last week, Red Rover launching some ballistic missiles. Given the limited follow-through in corn over the weekend, this is a bit concerning. If we can’t even drive this market higher because of war, what can we elevate it with? The EPA gave us a bone, I honestly did not anticipate those RVO numbers for biodiesel. Historically, it hasn’t yielded great results to rely on the government, yet soybeans continue to lack follow-through. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains The good old days of margin calls, before the ACH stuff, when it was “checks in the mail” waiting for the market to turn (go ahead and laugh if you have heard or used that one). Israel just sent one to Iran overnight, and you can bet your tail that Iran will cash it. Israel claims that it struck dozens of targets in Iran amid nuclear tensions, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the US was not involved in. Yet, after the news, crude oil futures jumped—almost $4.00 to $71 per barrel, as much as 20% of the world’s crude travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has declared a state of emergency, anticipating a drone and missile attack in retaliation. According to the Israelis, Iran was within days of having enough material to make 15 nuclear bombs. I would guess that the US-Iranian talks scheduled for Sunday in Oman will be canceled. More on that below. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

On the Grains In memory of Brian Wilson, the chief songwriter of the Beach Boys, who passed away yesterday, we’re thinking of “Good Vibrations” ahead of today’s USDA report. For younger readers, The Beach Boys were a popular band long before color photos were invented. For those who remember him, you are welcome, the rest of the day, you will be humming “I’m thinking of good vibrations” as we attempt to get some positive news from this USDA report. The key item will be what the USDA does with exports. I have been in the grain business for 21 years now, and it feels like 18 years have passed since exports have been monitored this closely. The first order of business today will be the weekly export sales. Estimates are for corn to be 700-1400 KMT, compared to last week’s 1102 KMT and the previous week’s 582 KMT. Soybean estimates are 100-600 KMT, compared to last week’s 197 KMT and two weeks ago, 178 KMT. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Driving through Central and Western Iowa last week it was easy to see that crops as a whole are off to a great start. (Knock on wood) If I could choose one word to describe them, it would be: consistent. Crops looked consistently even across fields and regions where one plant on one side of the field was of identical height and development to any plant on the other side. Of course, we have a long way to go, and this crop has yet to be tested. Snodgrass says risk of Corn Belt drought has dropped 15% (originally at 60%), moving us away from a broader moisture deficiency. The 15-day weather anomaly shows that above average rains through the month of June are fairly widespread. Longer term forecasts through July still suggest a drying pattern in the Western Corn Belt. This week, the European model looks for more rain in the Northern Grain Belt and Southern Grain Belt of 1" – 3", keeping those regions wet. It is important to note that the GFS is much less generous, showing zero precipitation precisely where the European model provides 3". Time will tell which forecast…