Joshua Van Ryswyk

05/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Huge Week for Ag as Middle East Tensions Persist On the Grains Grain and soy markets strengthened overnight, with the soy complex leading the move higher. Grain traders have a lot of potentially major market-moving reports and events this week, while the broader marketplace continues to monitor the situation in the Middle East. Crude oil futures strengthened overnight as President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the U.S. framework to end the war, calling it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” Tehran demanded a lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and sanctions relief, while maintaining a degree of control over traffic through Hormuz, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar with the matter. Iran also insisted that any agreement must result in an immediate end to fighting, including in Lebanon, where Israel is waging a parallel war against militant group Hezbollah. Huge Week for Agricultural Reports, Policy & Events Aside from the typical weekly data, there are potential major market-moving reports and events for agriculture. WASDE Report (Tuesday) USDA will update its 2025-26 U.S. and global balance sheets and also issue its first official look at the 2026-27 marketing year. Crop Production Report (Tuesday) USDA’s initial winter wheat…

05/07/2026 Markets Await Iran’s Response Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Await Iran’s Response On the Grains Wednesday’s heavy selling in the grain and soy markets eased overnight, with notable rebounds from session lows early this morning. Crude oil also continues to face pressure, though selling from yesterday has eased.Markets await Iran’s response to the latest peace proposal. The two sides are reportedly leaning toward a limited, temporary agreement, according to Reuters. The proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, sources told Reuters. A Pakistani source and another source briefed on the mediation said a one-page memorandum to formally end the conflict was close, though gaps remain between the sides. The proposal would formally end the conflict while leaving unresolved key U.S. demands such as the restrictions on Iran's missile program and an end to its support for proxy militias in the Middle East.Meanwhile, the Israeli army says it killed the commander of an elite Hezbollah unit in an attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Wednesday. Other Israeli attacks took place in…

05/06/2026 https://youtu.be/31sStpZbl70?si=J70r_6T8T_s924B8 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Peace Deal Winds Blowing Harder On the Grains Markets reacted sharply overnight to the report from Axios that the U.S. believes it is close to an agreement with Iran to end the war. Washington and Tehran reportedly are working on a one-page memorandum of understanding that would set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.President Trump suspended a military initiative to guide stranded ships though the Strait of Hormuz and has reportedly been indicating to U.S. officials he wants to end the war soon. Meanwhile, China’s foreign minister stepped up its efforts to get Iran to negotiate an end to the war. Mediator Pakistan believes a deal is close. Iran has been silent, though the U.S. reportedly expects to hear from Tehran in the next 48 hours. There are signs a deal may be near. There have been such signs before, but these appear to be stronger. Grains faced heavy selling overnight. There’s risk of heavy long liquidation with the peace deal winds blowing harder, as funds have amassed what is likely to be a record net long position in grain and soy complex markets. Crude oil also faced heavy selling overnight and…

05/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Tap the Breaks; Money Flow Remains Critical Reco Day 3: Sell remaining 25% of old crop corn using July futures at $4.72 or best price.  This completes our old crop sales and should give us an average price of $4.50. Filled on May 1.   *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat are under pressure early this morning, with HRW wheat leading declines. Markets failed to sustain buyer interest early in the overnight session. July corn futures posted an exact double-top with the March 9 spike high, while July soybeans failed to clear Monday’s high before both turned lower. Speculative money flow will remain the primary driver of price action during today’s session. Funds likely moved to a record cumulative net long position in the grain and soy markets. The broader marketplace remains edgy as traders keenly monitor the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East. Relative calm has seemingly prevailed for now after…

05/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds Haven’t Hit the Brakes on Buying Yet Reco Day 2: Sell remaining 25% of old crop corn using July futures at $4.72 or best price.  This completes our old crop sales and should give us an average price of $4.50. Filled on May 1.   *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Soybeans actively traded higher overnight after the July contract finally closed above $12 last Friday and broke out above the seven-week choppy trading range. Corn and soyoil have perked up after facing light pressure early in the overnight session. Buyer interest is muted in wheat markets. Fund willingness to keep pumping money into the long side of markets will be key to how far current rallies extend. Managed money held a near-record long position in CBOT grain/soy futures as of April 28; It was record length when including HRW and HRS futures. The move higher in grains this morning is being augmented by crude oil,…

05/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Turn The Page Reco Day 1: Sell remaining 25% of old crop corn using July futures at $4.72 or best price.  This completes our old crop sales and should give us an average price of $4.50.   Reco Day 3: We want to continue to reward the wheat rally. Set price target for new crop wheat of $7, advancing sales an additional 20% using Chicago wheat as a reference. Filled on April 29. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Corn and soybeans firmed overnight as the calendar flipped to May, extending price gains posted during April. July soybeans are again attempting to find buying above $12 and post an upside breakout from the sideways channel that has been in place since mid-March. Wheat markets pivoted around unchanged after retreating sharply from their recent highs to close out April. Seasonally, years with price strength during April tend to keep building upside momentum in the corn and soybean markets. But…

04/30/2026 Grains Flash Short-Term Topping Signals Reco Day 2: We want to continue to reward the wheat rally. Set price target for new crop wheat of $7, advancing sales an additional 20% using Chicago wheat as a reference. Filled on April 29. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning; Eric will return tomorrow. On the Grains Wheat markets traded lower overnight after finishing well off their session highs on Wednesday. U.S. and global crop concerns remain, but price action late yesterday and overnight signals a short-term top. The market had gotten too frothy with speculative buying. Corn and soybeans also pulled back overnight. Of note: July soybeans are showing another potential failed upside breakout from the sideways range since mid-March. Spikes of $12 in July soybeans have stalled buying. June WTI crude oil futures marked a contract high overnight before pulling back. The war-time high for WTI came on March 9 at $119.48 on the continuation chart, before June was…

04/29/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Crops Price Inflation Accelerates; Don’t Get Caught Watching Reco Day 1: We want to continue to reward the wheat rally. Set price target for new crop wheat of $7, advancing sales an additional 20% using Chicago wheat as a reference.  *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Wheat continued its recent price surge overnight, with new-crop HRW and HRS futures now solidly above $7. Corn and soy complex futures also strengthened. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a perfect storm for food inflation, driving up commodity prices and choking off fertilizer supplies, while extreme weather is heightening global crop concerns. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 of the world’s leading crop products, has climbed to the highest level since November 2023. The World Bank’s latest “Commodity Markets Outlook" report warned the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East will continue to impact global energy and commodity supply chains, potentially triggering a new round of price surges.…

04/28/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Inflation Fears Add Strength to Grains On the Grains Wheat futures surged overnight, led by HRW contracts, as wheat crops in the Plains continue to deteriorate. Corn followed to the upside, while soybeans modestly pulled back from Monday’s gains, content to hold in the extended sideways range. Soymeal and soyoil are firmer, with meal supported by news the Netherlands has rejected at least two Argentine soymeal cargoes this month after finding non-approved GMO material. Aside from the wheat crop woes, inflation concerns are adding support to the commodity sector. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is trading at its highest level since 2013, driven by oil and supply-chain concerns tied to the war in the Middle East. A rising tide is lifting all boats… aside from metals, which are under pressure. Winter Wheat Conditions Unchanged; HRW Crop Continues to Deteriorate USDA rated 30% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as good/excellent, unchanged from the previous week, but 10 percentage points below the five-year average. HRW states showed further general deterioration. Of the seven HRW states, South Dakota has the highest rated crop at only 35% good/excellent. While much of the attention is…

04/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Corn, SRW Wheat Take the Reins On the Grains Grain and soy complex futures traded mostly higher overnight, led by corn and SRW wheat futures, with July contracts rising to their highest levels since early April. HRW wheat struggled to find sustained buying. Soybeans followed to the upside, while holding within the extended sideways trading range. Corn and SRW wheat taking the upside lead from HRW wheat would be supportive. The strongest and most lasting rallies typically feature rotational leadership. With the calendar flipping to May late this week, traders have a greater weather focus. But geopolitics also continue to grab attention, with strength in crude oil providing support for ag markets overnight. Dry areas of the Plains received little to no rainfall over the weekend. Some rains are forecast over the next week, but they will favor areas east of the driest locations, keeping moisture stress on much of the HRW wheat crop. Brazil’s safrinha corn area is also garnering market attention. Early maturing safrinha corn is developing favorably, though the bulk of the crop is in need of rains, with none in the seven-day forecast and the longer-term…