Joshua Van Ryswyk

08/13/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Back to the Grind On the Grains: The euphoric price rise on Wednesday wore off overnight. Corn failed to find follow through buying, while soybeans and wheat pivoted around unchanged. Wheat is showing a little strength this morning as Russia struck Ukraine's largest Danube grain shipment port overnight. But a surge in buyer interest in wheat will be tied to a notable pickup in export demand for U.S. supplies – something that hasn’t been seen yet and USDA didn’t account for in its updated balance sheet (see below). Overnight price action signals it’s back to the grind for corn, soybeans and wheat as futures grind within their broad summer trading ranges. Key takeaways from USDA’s Aug. 12 Reports Yields: USDA’s initial yields came in below trendline for both corn and soybeans. Over the past 10 years, USDA has lowered yield from August to January for both in seven years by an average of 1.0 bu. for corn and 0.6 bu. for soybeans. History favors reductions in the months ahead, though August rains give crops plenty of moisture to finish, especially soybeans. Keep in mind, a large part of the August…

08/12/2026 Geopolitics, Derecho and USDA… Oh My! Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical difficulties. On the Grains Wheat futures surged overnight as Ukrainian drone strikes pounded three of Russia's large grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk, causing two of them to temporarily halt operations as they assess damage. While traders added risk premium overnight, futures remain in a choppy range as there hasn’t been a significant pickup in export demand for U.S. supplies. Corn and soybeans strengthened overnight ahead of USDA’s August crop reports at 11 a.m. CT, which will feature the first survey-based estimates of both crops. However, those estimates were finalized ahead of Tuesday’s derecho event that caused crop damage from eastern Iowa through the southeastern Corn Belt. There are chances for additional adverse weather for the next couple of days. Danage assessments will take several days – and even then, won’t be fully known until harvest is complete. Using the August 2020 derecho as a blueprint – even if the damage isn’t the same – USDA lowered corn yield, harvested acres and production significantly from August to final. The U.S. corn supply situation could change…

08/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Déjà Vu All Over Again?... Let’s Hope Not On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat traded quietly in the tight ranges overnight as traders await the storm – both literally and figuratively. Preparations are underway for the figurative “storm” of USDA data coming Wednesday that will feature the first survey-based production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans that will be based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. NASS will also incorporate FSA certified acreage data as of early August into its initial production estimates. Separately, FSA will release detailed acreage data as of early August, including prevent-plant acres for each crop. USDA will also update its U.S. wheat production forecasts and the old- and new-crop balance sheets, along global production and ending stocks. The literal storm is the potential for a derecho event today in a wide swath across South Dakota, southern Minnesota, Iowa, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Timing is eerily similar to the Aug. 10 derecho six years ago that wiped out many acres of corn and made USDA’s initial crop estimate virtually moot. Anyone that was directly impacted by the 2020 event puckers a little…

08/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitics Grab Wheat Market’s Attention On the Grains Wheat futures led gains in the grain and soy markets overnight, building on Friday’s gains amid heightened geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea region. Soybeans were boosted by Chinese demand. Weather remains generally favorable for crop development, though the southern half of the country could face stress from heat and limited rainfall. Russia hammered Odesa during the weekend with one of the heaviest attacks of the war on Ukraine’s major grain export hub. Turkey stopped issuing Dardanelles transit permits for vessels bound for Ukraine or Russia's Novorossiysk. While geopolitical concerns are heightened, export demand for U.S. wheat must increase to garner sustained buyer interest. Other origins, primarily European exporters, will get the bulk of the initial wheat business that’s lost in the Black Sea region. The U.S. will benefit from increased demand for corn, though that window won’t open until fall. Timely rains in eastern Australia have boosted the country’s wheat production prospects for 2026-27, with multiple private crop forecasters now calling for production of around 30 MMT. While that would be down from last year’s 35.8 MMT crop, it would be…

08/07/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Today’s An Up Day – So Far On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat are firmer early this morning amid corrective buying. Corn is working on a modest gain for the week, while soybeans and the wheat markets are lower. The same factors – weather, geopolitics and Chinese demand remain in focus, while traders are also starting to position themselves ahead of USDA’s August crop reports next Wednesday. Nothing has changed aside from the direction of money flow – and that is light. Weather remains non-threatening for corn and soybeans. Clusters of rain are on the radar this morning, with near- to above-normal rainfall likely over the Corn Belt during the next two weeks. Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other, slowing grain shipments from the Black Sea region. But there hasn’t been a pickup in export demand for U.S. wheat. In the Middle East, markets wait to see if Iran and Oman can reach a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. China continues to actively buy U.S. new-crop soybeans. USDA should confirm more business via daily sales today. There was talk of China booking additional cargoes on…

08/06/2026 China’s Bean Buying Frenzy Continues Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video this morning. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat narrowly pivoted around unchanged during a quiet overnight session, as traders continued to monitor weather, geopolitical events and Chinese demand. Traders will also start to position themselves ahead of the Aug. 12 USDA reports. China’s state-owned firms booked at least another 13 cargoes of U.S. soybeans (roughly 800,000 MT) on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the situation. That’s in line with the 12 to 15 cargoes export sources indicated. Expect another flurry of daily sales announcements. This is the second wave of big soybean purchases China’s state firms have made since late last week as they have taken advantage of the sharp price break in futures, pushing total volumes for 2026-27 to around 6 MMT – about one-quarter of its 25 MMT commitment via the trade deal. Crop Estimating Season Hitting Full Stride Private firms are releasing their corn and soybean yield and production forecasts ahead of USDA’s first survey-based estimates on Aug. 12, which will be based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. Wire services will release average estimates…

08/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rains Trumping Chinese Demand On the Grains: Soybeans and corn extended their sharp price slides from the late-July highs overnight as rains are pushing across the western Corn Belt (primarily Iowa) this morning with multiple additional rainfall chances expected over the next two weeks. For soybeans, the timely rains during the key pod-fill stage are trumping the recent pickup in Chinese demand. August rains are difficult for traders to ignore.Wheat futures are trying to buck the trend amid further grain shipping disruptions in the Black Sea region, though it will take a notable pickup in export demand for U.S. wheat to turn that into a price-bullish situation. USDA announced another 132,000 MT of new-crop soybean sales to China on Tuesday. Additional daily sales are expected today. China is using the sharp break in prices to make goodwill purchases ahead of the planned meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington on Sept. 24. Since the July 24 peak in November soybean futures, USDA has announced daily new-crop soybean sales of 884,000 MT to China, with another 514,150 MT to unknown destinations (likely China). And there were daily sales of…

08/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Key Near-Term Boundaries Established On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat are favoring the downside early this morning as they failed to sustain strength from early in the overnight session. Near-term trading boundaries have been set in wide ranges from the July 24 highs to the Aug. 3 lows. December corn futures are holding near the middle of their nearly 34-cent range, while November soybeans and December SRW wheat futures are in the lower end of their respective 81- and 78-cent ranges. That gives traders room to maneuver markets as they price in weather, crop conditions, geopolitics, Chinese demand and other factors. USDA on Monday confirmed daily soybean sales of 488,000 MT to China and 136,150 MT to unknown destinations for 2026-27 delivery. More daily sales should be coming this morning. But traders are expecting it, so price impact will be limited unless any additional sales are stronger than anticipated. Russia and Ukraine continue their attacks in the Black Sea. A drone attack overnight hit a Turkish-owned vessel and seriously injured three crew members near Russia's Novorossiysk port. But markets have grown numb to the constant headlines and the Black…

08/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video New Month, Same Volatile Factors in Play On the Grains Grain and soy markets favored the downside overnight as traders monitored weather, geopolitical events and potential Chinese demand. The same volatile market factors that shaped price action through July are still in play as the calendar has flipped to August. Weather is the primary focal point for corn and soybeans and leans bearish, as rains swept across the Corn Belt from Friday through Sunday, providing a needed shot of moisture for many areas. But the driest locations in the northwestern Corn Belt, including northwestern Iowa, had disappointing results. This week’s forecast calls for additional rainfall chances and cooler temperatures. Geopolitics are a mixed bag. Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other’s grain export capabilities in the Black Sea region. Both have warned of reduced exports while seeking alternative routes. Meanwhile, the sitaution in the Middle East is pivoting back to diplomacy, with President Trump saying the U.S. would engage in talks with Iran today. Chinese demand is cautiously optimisic. More daily sales of U.S. soybeans could surface, with China rumored to have purchased multiple cargoes for shipment out of…

07/31/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rains A Wet Blanket On Corn, Soybeans On the Grains: Grain and soy futures are under pressure this morning, aside from soymeal which is modestly firmer. After filling the July 20 gap yesterday, December corn futures are making for-the-move lows. November soybeans and the wheat markets are holding above their recent lows for now. A broad swath of rain is moving across the western Corn Belt and will push into the eastern Belt later this morning, providing timely moisture for developing corn and soybeans. However, amounts were light in the driest areas of the western Corn Belt and limited rainfall is expected in these areas through Monday. China’s Soybean Buys Continue New-crop soybean sales to China as of July 23 increased to 2.781 MMT – the most for the date since 2022-23. If you add in daily sales since July 23, China’s new-crop commitments are just over 3 MMT. That’s 12% of the 25 MMT the U.S. says China pledged to buy. There’s another 2.829 MMT of new-crop soybean sales on the books to unknown destinations, which is likely China. The combined 5.6 MMT would be 22.4% of the pledged…