Joshua Van Ryswyk

01/23/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Relatively Quiet as Metals Mark New Highs On the Grains Soybeans and the winter wheat markets favored the upside in quiet overnight trade, while corn held near unchanged and spring wheat traded lower. Soybeans are working on gains for the week, while wheat markets are steady/higher and corn is lower. As an active week on the geopolitical front comes to an end, there is still plenty for traders to monitor. The Greenland situation has calmed down, as the world awaits details on President Trump’s framework deal with NATO to unfold. Trump said the U.S. is watching Iran closely and has an “armada” heading toward the region, though he said he hopes it won’t be needed. That pushed crude oil futures up around $1 overnight. Meanwhile, Trump said he had a “good” meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Davos and expressed renewed hope the war with Russia is going to end. However, the Kremlin said there’s “no hope of achieving a long-term settlement” to the war until Russia’s demands for territory in Ukraine are accepted. Talks between the U.S., Russian and Ukrainian officials will continue today and Saturday. Gold…

01/22/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video TACO Boosts Market Sentiment On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat showed mild price strength during the overnight session. Soybeans built on Wednesday’s strong gains, while the corn and winter wheat markets recouped some of yesterday’s losses. Fresh news for grain traders is limited, though improved sentiment in the broader marketplace is providing modest support.TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out, the idea that the president's threats are mostly veiled attempts to get involved parties to the negotiating table. Sentiment in the broad marketplace strengthened after Trump called off promised tariffs on European nations, proclaiming that he had “formed the framework of a future deal” for Greenland. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the compromise didn’t include discussion of the territory’s sovereignty — making it more likely that a final deal can be reached. Negotiations are expected to center on several areas, officials in Europe familiar with the discussions told the Wall Street Journal. They include a potential U.S. agreement with Denmark about stationing forces at bases in Greenland and expanded European efforts to boost security around the Arctic. The U.S. could receive a right of first refusal on investments in…

01/21/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video U.S. Presses China to Buy More Beans On the Grains Soybeans led a round of gains overnight, with the March contract around a dime higher early this morning. Corn and wheat are showing milder price strength. The broader marketplace awaits President Trump’s comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Asked how far he is willing to go to acquire Greenland, Trump told reporters, “You’ll find out.” Trump is scheduled to give a special address in Davos at 8:30 a.m. ET. Bessent Presses China on Soybean Buys at Davos U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used a meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos to press China to step up agricultural purchases, saying he encouraged Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to buy “a little more” soybeans than Beijing has already committed to purchase. China has reportedly completed its initial commitment to purchase 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans. Bessent said soybean purchases were explicitly discussed during his meeting with He Lifeng. The comments underscore the Trump administration’s effort to keep agricultural trade flowing even as broader U.S./China relations remain strained by tariffs, geopolitics and industrial policy disputes. Bessent’s public nudge…

01/20/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitics Take Center Stage On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat all traded higher at points overnight but are under light pressure early this morning. Broader market focus is on geopolitical events, with much of the attention on the situation in Greenland, which pushed gold and silver to new highs overnight. Specific to agriculture, traders will shift their focus to shipments of soybeans to China after completing its pledge to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans. As I indicated last Friday, a large portion of the purchases are unshipped. Brazil’s soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting are just getting started, but both are ahead of year-ago. Heavy rains are forecast for some areas of central Brazil during the next two weeks, which will limit field activity. Hot and dry conditions are forecast for Argentina’s main crop areas. India will allow the export of 500,000 MT of wheat/wheat products. Trump Threatens New Tariffs Over Greenland; EU Responds President Trump said the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting Feb. 1, with duties set to rise to 25% in June unless European governments agree to a…

01/16/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China (Likely) Reaches 12 MMT Soybean Target; What’s Next? On the Grains Reco 1 Day 3: Sell 25% old crop corn at July 2026 contract at $4.35 or better. Filled overnight on Jan 14.Reco 2 Day 3: Sell 20% new crop corn at March 2027 contract at $4.60 or better. Filled overnight on Jan. 14. Reco 3 Day 3: Cover 40% of new crop corn buying 4.50 strike December corn puts, selling 4.90 strike December calls for a net spread of 15 cents. Adjust strike prices to level of risk tolerance. This would take our new crop coverage to 80%. Reco 4 Day 3: Sell remaining 25% old crop soybeans at the market. Sweep the bin. Reco 5 Day 3: Sell 20% of new crop soybeans at January 27 contract at 10.75 or better. Filled on Jan. 14. Reco 6 Day 3: Cover 40% of new crop soybeans buying 10.50 strike November puts, selling 11.00 strike November calls for a net spread of 12 cents. Adjust strike prices to level of risk tolerance. This would take our new crop coverage to 80%. Corn, soybeans and wheat showed mild strength overnight, but all three…

01/15/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Iran Tensions Simmer; Grains Awaiting Demand News On the Grains Reco 1 Day 2: Sell 25% old crop corn at July 2026 contract at $4.35 or better. Filled overnight on Jan 14. Reco 2 Day 2: Sell 20% new crop corn at March 2027 contract at $4.60 or better. Filled overnight on Jan. 14. Reco 3 Day 2: Cover 40% of new crop corn buying  450  strike December corn puts, selling 490 strike December calls for a net spread of 15 cents. Adjust strike prices to level of risk tolerance. Reco 4 Day 2: Sell remaining 25% old crop soybeans at the market. Sweep the bin. Reco 5 Day 2: Sell 20% of new crop soybeans at January 27 contract at 10.75 or better. Filled on Jan. 14. Reco 6 Day 2: Cover 40% of new crop soybeans  buying 1050 strike November  puts, selling 1100 strike November calls for a net spread of  12 cents. Adjust strike prices to level of risk tolerance. Corn, soybean and wheat futures traded higher overnight as they modestly extended corrective rebounds from lows earlier this week. Crude oil futures are around $2 lower as…

01/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Finding A Bottom or Dead Cat Bounce? On the Grains Reco 1: Sell 25% old crop corn at July 2026 contract at $4.35 or better. Filled overnight. Reco 2: Sell 20% new crop corn at March 2027 contract at $4.60 or better. Filled overnight. Reco 3: In addition, cover 40% new crop corn by buying $4.50 December Puts for $0.28 and selling $4.90 calls for $0.16 for net option spread cost of $0.12.  This would take our new crop coverage to 80%. Reco 4: Sell remaining 25% old crop soybeans at the market. Sweep the bin. Reco 5: Sell 20% of new crop soybeans at January 27 contract at 10.75 or better. Reco 6: In addition, cover 40% of new crop soybeans by buying 10.60 November put for $0.50 and selling 11.00 November call for $0.40 for net option spread cost of $0.10.  This would take our new crop coverage to 80%. Corn and soybeans rebounded amid light corrective buying overnight. Spring wheat futures also modestly favored the upside, while the winter wheat markets mildly extended their price declines. Key today will be whether there’s any conviction behind the overnight…

01/13/2026 August 2024 3.85 Low in Corn is at Risk! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Following USDA January report, we are updating our reccos: Recco 1: Sell 25% old crop corn at July 2026 contract at $4.35 or better.Recco 2: Sell 20% new crop corn at March 2027 contract at $4.60 or better. Recco 3: In addition, cover 40% new crop corn by buying $4.50 December Puts for $0.28 and selling $4.90 calls for $0.16 for net option spread cost of $0.12.  This would take our new crop coverage to 80%. Recco 4: Sell remaining 25% old crop soybeans at the market.  Sweep the bin. Recco 5: Sell 20% of new crop soybeans at January 27 contract at 10.75 or better. Recco 6: In addition, cover 40% of new crop soybeans by buying 10.60 Nov put for $0.50 and selling 11.00 November call for $0.40 for net option spread cost of $0.10.  This would take our new crop coverage to 80%. Monday’s USDA report changed the narrative on the markets more than people realize.  We had been negative soybeans going into the report, but like many had been optimistic we…

01/13/2026 Bears In Driver’s Seat Morning Market Talk Due to technical issues there will not be a Morning Market Talk today. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat extended Monday’s sharp declines overnight, though selling was more tempered. Besides continuing to factor in USDA’s bearish crop reports, markets are also watching the situation in Iran, with President Trump saying he will impose a 25% tariff on “any and all business” a country does with the U.S. if that country is “doing business” with Iran, according to his Truth Social post. Because the policy is broadly framed, those who will be sanctioned depends on enforcement definitions. But if the target is countries with large trade ties to Iran and/or material involvement in Iranian oil flows, several stand out: Likely primary exposure (major Iran trade partners): China (Iran’s largest trading partner) United Arab Emirates India Turkey Pakistan Iraq Russia The 25% tariff threat lands squarely on China, the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil and a central player in Tehran’s sanctions-evasion network. Analysts say even if the tariffs are never implemented, the rhetoric alone damages trust just as Washington and Beijing were attempting to stabilize relations. The “country list” is potentially long…

01/12/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Firmer Awaiting Market-Moving Report Data On the Grains Wheat led a round of buying in the grain and soy markets overnight as traders await USDA’s barrage of reports at 11 a.m. CT and are keeping a keen watch on several outside market developments. Gold and silver jumped to new highs overnight, while the U.S. dollar retreated as federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powel, which revived concerns over the central bank’s independence. Traders are also monitoring deadly protests in Iran as President Trump mulls potential options, while also watching the situations with Venezuela and Greenland and ongoing attacks by Russia and Ukraine.This is one of the biggest report days of the year, as USDA will release its Annual Production Summary, WASDE Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and Winter Wheat Seedings. The potential market movers are the final U.S. corn and soybean production figures and Dec. 1 stocks, which will drive changes to U.S. ending stocks. The remainder of the data is ancillary and will be glossed over, though will help provide price direction longer-term. Recent History of USDA’s Final Yields Corn USDA has lowered…