CommStock Reports

When I started farming in the early 1970's, we owned our hogs and our hog operation paid the bills and sourced our equity. I bought and paid for a model 1066 IHC tractor with the profit from just 400 head of fat hogs. I wondered then why we were not raising thousands of them. This was the time when the industry was moving indoors with farrowing stalls and slatted finishing barns. We farrowed sows either in A-frames or bedded pens like the foodie producers do today. Most of our hogs were bought as feeder pigs. Our hogs were finished in traditional sheds, partially outside with straw bedding and pens cleaned with a skid-steer loader. We built one slatted finishing barn and that is where our focus on hog production shifted fully to cattle. We never made the transition to confinement production. We never wanted to be obligated to facility mortgages. We did not add to our land base during this period but we kept what we had. We got along fine with the volatility of the hog cycle. Ironically, many hog producers fared better during the Ag depression of the 1980's than grain farmers did up until 1998 when the market collapsed under them. One of the reasons that we exited the hog industry was because the playing field became skewed with tightened margins requiring scale of production beyond our means and packers owning hogs which we felt we could not compete with. Many went from owning hogs to feeding ...

On the Grains: Grains are quietly mixed in overnight trade thus far. The reality of huge ending stocks continues to hold corn futures in check until/unless the weather delays in South America do impede second crop corn planting significantly. The problem is it could be weeks until we learn if that's the case. Weekly ethanol numbers were a mixed bag yesterday. Production was down again despite great margins for refiners due to declining gasoline demand. On the other hand, ethanol stocks were also down thanks to better exports, which hit the highest levels in 27 weeks. With December going into delivery, the March contract becomes the spot month so we've had to move our trigger prices to that chart instead in adjusting our prior Recco. The first target of 488 is where the new downtrend line offers first resistance and the second target of 493 is a second layer of resistance that has halted multiple rally attempts since late October and is also near the upper Bollinger band.

Private property rights are under attack in Dickinson County Iowa where I reside. It is not the first time. Years ago, area residents successfully put out enough intimidation so that the commercial hog industry avoided the county. The county is home to the Iowa Great Lakes which is the state's premier tourist attraction resulting in a huge seasonal influx of folks each summer. It is understandable that the tourist asset needs to be protected. While I do not believe that the vacation destination was at actual risk, they erred on the side of caution and built elsewhere. This established Dickinson County as a Nimby (Not in my backyard) haven where the residents enjoy the benefits of economic development coming from elsewhere. They are privileged.   There is another controversy going on over easements for CO2 pipelines proposed to transport CO2 across Iowa to sequestration in ND. In this instance CO2 pipeline companies must acquire voluntary easements from enough of the impacted landowners for the IUB to approve use of eminent domain to acquire the rest. This is a process with a lot of precedent in the process. It has required the companies/utilities to get at least 75% of the easements through voluntary deals with landowners in order to gain IUB approval. Some do not like the process and look to stop it via any means that they can devise. I have been on both sides of that equation. I did not give the Rock Island Clean Line transmission line an easement on ...

On the Grains: Corn and beans are soft in overnight trade. Today is the last day for any speculative longs to get out of December contracts ahead of delivery notices and soybeans are taking a breather after yesterday's sharp gains. The outlook for Brazil remains in flux as recent rains have helped check further declines in drought-parched central Brazil but insufficient and too late to restore full yield potential. Some will have to be replanted and that threatens 2nd crop corn production as explained in detail in this week's Brazilian Operations Update below. On the export front, corn sales are picking up with U.S. corn now the cheapest origin and domestic demand robust as well. National average basis for corn improved another 2 cents yesterday. Funds added massively to their net short position in corn last week and are now estimated to be short over 200,000 contracts. At some point, they will start covering those shorts and it could start once we get past the pressure tied to delivery risk for spec longs in December. Export sales for soybeans have been picking up as well, another big sale was announced yesterday and U.S. beans through the Pacific Northwest are the cheapest option for China and rumors yesterday that more Chinese purchases are in the offing. Crush margins remain solid for domestic demand and national average soybean basis held rock solid yesterday despite the big gain futures. Wheat futures are mostly firm in overnight trade after yesterday saw probes to new lows suddenly halt due ...

NIMBY (not in my backyard) or PIMBY (please in my backyard) …I have been both depending on what was coming. While landowners decry use of eminent domain, we would not have a lot of roads, airports, waste treatment plants, power or pipelines without it. That infrastructure benefits the public and the interpretation of what is in the public interest is split as are so many other things today. You are never going to get 100% of landowners to concede to an easement across their property without the final execution of eminent domain. That said, the argument against abuse of eminent domain may have started in my office with opposition to the Rock Island Power Line, a proposed transmission line, unprecedented in the size of its footprint. There are lots of power lines, pipelines and such that have been built where the value of the easement paid was a fraction of what its market value. Eminent domain could be used to undermine market values for easements.   Navigator tried to use the old traditional model for terms paid for easements and failed miserably to get takers. Navigator CO2 pipeline reportedly only secured 15% of needed easements in IL and failed to secure their proposed sequestration site in that state. A 100 mln gallon ethanol plant can make an additional $25 mln annually by reducing the carbon score of the ethanol they produce through CO2 sequestration. That improves the basis for all corn growers. Only one ethanol plant in IL was on the Navigator ...

On the Grains: Grains are trying to find a bottom after breaking to new lows yesterday. The holiday delayed Commitments of Traders report was put out after the close and showed trading funds added heavily to their already large net short positions in corn and reduced their net long position in beans as well. In wheat, they added to net short positions in Chicago and KC, but actually began to lighten up a bit on their net short position in spring wheat. After the close NASS released the final Crop Progress Report for the season. Corn harvest is 96% complete a point ahead of average but 3 points behind last year when it was 99% at this point. The Crop Progress Reports won't resume until April 1 of next year with an update on wheat crop ratings to assess how they compare to where they are right now. As anticipated, the portion of winter wheat rated "good" to "excellent" improved by 2 points last week, to 50%. That's 16 points better than the G/E ratings for the '23 crop a year ago at this point. The portion rated "poor" to "very poor" declined by 2 points last week, to 15%. That's 10 points better than a year ago when 25% rated P/VP. (You might want to note these stats, as they will be the basis of judging the '24-crop ratings when they resume April 1.) As a side note, for the second straight week, overall improvement was totally confined to the HRW states. The ...

With a carryover corn stock’s estimate of some 2.156 bln bushels, an increase of 795 mln bushels from the previous year carryover of 1.361 bln, there is extra corn to go somewhere. The trade is already calling for fewer planted corn acres in 2024, but a trendline yield could negate any accompanying reduction in production from fewer planted acres. Supply is setting up to remain burdensome for some time. Without some new compensating source of demand, it will be very difficult to reduce burdensome corn stocks.   Low river levels impede corn exports from the ECB. This should be just a short-term problem but anything that backs corn up is negative to the balance sheet. To arrive at their 2.156 bln bushel carryover, they look for exports to improve by 414 mln, which many see as too optimistic but of course weather in South America will determine that. China produced a larger crop and appears to have put the US at the bottom of their list sourcing corn imports.   USDA also has an increase pegged in of 101 mln bushels of corn being fed. Cattle numbers are declining but days on feed are being added increasing market weights. Beef feedlots are now entering red margin territory which could protract losses as demand has weakened. The hog industry appears to be on the edge of a major liquidation as integrated packers are unable to recover the cost of producing hogs from a weak pork market. China is in the same boat, with burdensome pork ...

On the Grains: After Friday's big break in prices, overnight action thus far shows grains steady to firm. Soybeans even probed new lows, but have since come back to the plus side while so far, Friday's lows have held in corn and wheat. We'll get weekly export inspections at 7:30, which could set the tone for early trade this morning. Friday's holiday-delayed weekly export sales started the selling binge in soybeans. Sales were down 75% from the week before and down 47% from the 4-week average. Corn sales were down 27% from huge sales the week before, but still 16% better than the week before. The market's assessment of Brazil's weather is still to be determined today. On the one hand, last week's rains fell a little short of expectations and Brazilian private firms are already trimming their crop estimates. On the other hand, now the outlook has turned dry again, but not for an extended period with rain returning in the 10-day outlook. In other weekend news, Ukraine has announced it will begin exporting both goods and grains in "convoys" while hugging the coastal waters of other Black Sea countries to discourage Russian attacks. Meanwhile, Russia has resumed attacks via drones on Ukrainian utilities and export infrastructure as winter cold descends in a repeat of last year's tactics. Much depends now on continued tight farmer sales now that harvest is complete on beans and in the last days for corn. We'll get a Crop Progress report this afternoon to confirm that and also ...

Following a weaker close on Friday, grain futures may face slight technical pressure at the open while traders wait for guidance from the oil market. The forecast for Brazil is dry again this week, but there is more rain next week than what was expected when the market finished trading on Friday. First notice day for December grain futures will come on Thursday this week, the last day of the month. In the Headlines There was discord within the OPEC cartel that delayed a meeting originally scheduled for this weekend. Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers were in disagreement over a plan for additional output cuts, particularly because Angola and Nigeria had not been meeting their production targets anyway. Another meeting is scheduled for this Thursday. Doubt about the extension of OPEC production cuts joined news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas to weigh on crude oil futures at the end of last week. The latest planting progress numbers from Brazil pegged soybean seedings at 75 percent complete, which was 12 points behind normal. Rio Grande do Sul was the biggest laggard, having only 26 percent of the crop sown. That state is in Southeastern Brazil, where too much rain has been the issue so far this season. Most of Brazil remains too dry, but the forecast calls for additional moisture next week. Weather conditions are currently much improved in Argentina compared to last season, but the existing crop inventories are still tight due to last year's drought and farmers have ...

Hope that you all had a great Thanksgiving. Markets open to trade at 8:30 this a.m., closing at 12:05 pm for an abbreviated session. December options expire today. This will be it for reports from us today with the next update coming Sunday p.m. On the Grains: The soybean market tips back and forth on each nuance of the rain forecast in South America. Dr. Elwynn Taylor said that they can get by in the Mato Grosso with 50% of normal rainfall there, as they actually get more than needed for the soybean crop each season. There have been areas there that have only gotten 25% of normal. Rain there has to come with timely consistency however, their soils do not have much residual moisture holding capacity. Late soybean planting will be a detriment to their producing a good corn crop. There will be acreage and yield losses in Southern Brazil where they have gotten way too much rain with an extended period of flooding. They have predicted as much as 20% will be replant and whatever gets replanted to soybeans will not grow a second crop of corn. This is not a great start to their growing season and there will be some degradation to production. Some of the excess rain in southern Brazil is leaking further south into Paraguay and into northern Argentina. Conditions have improved in Argentina but are still short of full recovery from drought. The election result may give Argentine farmers incentive to expand production. They think the ...

What I Miss Most About Farming is the Smell   I have pretty much retired from the physical aspect of farming. I had always looked forward to being able to go other places and do other things during planting and harvest seasons when retired. I have to admit that it is enjoyable not being tied to a calendar. Spent a few days in NYC recently having a wonderful time. On the way to and from the airport I watched the combines, grain carts and tillage equipment rolling up the harvest and I had to admit that it did evoke some old feelings. I miss many of the smells. I think that the smell of fall during the soybean harvest, the combination of the first brisk fall time air and soybean dust, was a favorite. We used to moldboard plow corn stalks and I loved the smell of the freshly turned dirt. We picked corn in the ear and ear corn has a more distinct smell then does the combine. I loved smelling ear corn when unloading it into the elevator. Now I cannot say that I know anyone that liked the smell of hog manure but cattle manure has a sweet aroma that I did not find offensive. They used to say that hog manure smells like money but that comes and goes and most often goes in the hog industry even after pork industry integration. I may not be driving tractors but I still get to smell the turkey in the ...

To Our Customers and Farming Family: We want to send a sincere thank you to all of you who have given us the opportunity to earn your business!  We greatly appreciate you and your contribution to the ag community.  We wish you a safe and successful holiday season with lots of food, fellowship and happiness.  We count you among our many blessings.  - The CommStock Family NEW CORN RECCO DAY 2: On past advice we're 50% sold at an average cash price just over $5. With basis already better than average and likely to firm, set a target of 484 in December futures for selling another 10% and an additional 15% if December hits 498. These are just below chart resistance areas and will take sales to 75% when executed.   OPTIONAL RECCO TACTIC: If this plan to get to 75% sold at those prices is too aggressive for you, consider buying 510 March call options on 25% now. (They will only get more expensive if you wait until the pricing targets are hit.) We call these "courage calls." Why? Because they give you the courage to follow a scale-up selling plan by offering "protection" for potential "opportunity cost" at a fixed cost (the option premium) if prices rally for whatever reasons well beyond these pending sales triggers. On the Grains:  First of all, I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving break with family. There are no markets tomorrow or tomorrow night. They won't resume until the day session on Friday. (I was fortunate to grow ...

Chinese premier Xi Jinping has not governed, ruled or whatever the Communist party calls it in China, how Americans that came to know him before he became president of China expected that he would. He was one of the elite princelings that was groomed to become the leader of his country. In his younger days, he spent some time here, in Iowa actually, showing interest in US Agriculture. He stayed with farm families and cultivated a relationship with former Iowa Governor Terry Branstad who later was appointed as Ambassador to China specifically because of his relationship with Xi. I do not know if Trump really needed or desired anyone to be US ambassador to China, as he would call all the shots and rarely took anyone else's experience or input as important. He reduced the traditional roles of Ambassadors and Cabinet members to being mere lackeys which is why so many of his former officials do not hold him in good esteem today. Americans who thought that they knew Xi Jinping have had difficulty reconciling the guy that they met when he lived here to the characterization he has earned since.   Insiders say that President Xi is very much a dictator who tolerates no dissent against himself or against the CCP in China. They have the most invasive domestic state security system which monitors its population in the world. When Chinese citizens go to a protest on failing real estate projects, they are identified and become unemployable with a result being ...

NEW CORN RECCO DAY 1: On past advice we're 50% sold at an average cash price just over $5. With basis already better than average and likely to firm, set a target of 484 in December futures for selling another 10% and an additional 15% if December hits 498. These are just below chart resistance areas and will take sales to 75% when executed.   OPTIONAL RECCO TACTIC: If this plan to get to 75% sold at those prices is too aggressive for you, consider buying 510 March call options on 25% now. (They will only get more expensive if you wait until the pricing targets are hit.) We call these "courage calls." Why? Because they give you the courage to follow a scale-up selling plan by offering "protection" for potential "opportunity cost" at a fixed cost (the option premium) if prices rally for whatever reasons well beyond these pending sales triggers.   On the Grains: Overnight trade is steady to firm. Soybeans again lead the way after yesterday's sharp rebound and this time even wheat is steady to firm on its coattails.   Weekly grain inspections reported yesterday morning were mostly uneventful, all falling well within the range of expectations. Most noteworthy is that YTD loadings for corn are now up 24% vs. USDA's forecast for them to rise only 22% this marketing year. Ditto for soybeans, where loadings YTD are down just 8.3% vs. USDA's forecast they'll drop 11.9%.   Three factors are in play that have corn and beans poised for another run at last ...

PLEASE REFER TO THE HEDGE AND TRADE STRATEGY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! I saw a combine running in the last cornfield standing between home and Minneapolis Sunday. Harvest is done and there has been an extraordinary amount of fall tillage done in my opinion. More tillage tends to mean more corn the next year. I saw NH3 rigs running so the next corn crop is being committed to. USDA was looking for a drop in corn acres next year to 91 mln. I will believe that when I see it. Our local corn market at our ethanol plant inverted again. The carry structure that the CBOT had put into the corn market during harvest has been taken away again, reverting back to a premium spot month in the cash market. The CBOT typically has structured the carry and this time the basis is doing so. Our ethanol plant started near 25 cents under CBOT during harvest and is now 20 cents over CBOT December. Then their basis quickly fades to 12 under CBOT March for January delivery. That puts their spot cash corn price at 487 and their January cash bid at just 473 Friday. They are trying to telegraph that they need corn today but they think that it will get easier to buy later on. My bet is that when we get to January that they will still need corn and their spot basis moves premium the March contract. Despite a significant improvement in spot basis, it has been totally diluted by ...

On the Grains: Grains are mixed in overnight trade as this goes to press, with corn barely steady, beans steady-to-firm and wheat on the soft side again. The forecasts for rain in northern Brazil that hit soybeans hard last week were spotty at best through the weekend, with more widespread rains not starting until today. Further, amounts to fall into late week have been trimmed back to 1.5-2.5" from 2.5-4.5" and it's expected to then turn warm and dry again into December. Similarly, the respite from excessively wet weather in Southern Brazil will be brief and generally persist longer-term.   The biggest weekend news was in the geopolitical arena. Though polls had the two candidates for president in Argentina neck-and-neck, the right-leaning political outsider Javier Milei beat the establishment's center-left Economy Minister Sergio Massa handily in a 56-44% lopsided vote. The surprising margin was best described as "showing the depth of despair in a country suffering 140% inflation and 40% of the population living below the official poverty level."

Grains face follow-through pressure after a weak finish on Friday. Traders will be watching whether significant rains materialize in Brazil at the start of the week. Buying interest has the potential to develop if large export sales are reported at 8 am central. The market will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday before the grains open on Friday at 8:30 and trade a shortened session until 12:05. In the Headlines Last week's grain price action was all about weather in Brazil as selling pressure developed based on unexpected rains popping up ahead of a wetter forecast over the next few days. Rains are expected to arrive starting Monday with accumulated totals of up to 2.5 inches. The forecast is back to being dry and warm during the transition of November to December and potentially beyond. The latest estimates on Brazilian planting progress measured soybean seedings still 10 percent behind the average pace, at 68 percent in total. The top growing state of Mato Grosso was pegged at 97 percent complete, but that figure did not account for potential replant needs, which some sources have estimated are at least 20 percent of the crop. Corn and soybean prices were pressured early last week from news that there was a deal reached to provide insurance for ships exporting grain from Ukraine. New York-headquartered insurance company Marsh McLennan has coordinated with Lloyd's of London to offer discounted rates to the Ukrainian government. The insurance program will facilitate shipping through the new corridor opened in the southwestern portion ...

Rain in the forecast for Brazil next week was a bearish weight on the grain market as it remained the primary focus when no daily export sales announcements were reported on Friday morning. Still, early concern about the availability of the Brazilian crops has already been linked to increased U.S. export demand and large grain importers like China will continue making purchase decisions that are heavily influenced by global weather conditions.   Dry weather in Brazil is currently the biggest factor, but it is not the only driver of potential strength for trade demand. A weaker dollar has also been helping corn and soybean exports accelerate recently. Favorable shifts in exchange rates only amplify the relative value for U.S. grain over exports from Brazil and other competitors. With U.S. corn priced above Brazil just less than a month ago, the current spread now has corn offers out of the Gulf of Mexico as much as 3.5 percent cheaper than Brazil. The premium for U.S. soybeans over Brazil has also narrowed considerably since October.   There were flash sale announcements made on all of the four mornings leading up to Friday, including more soybeans to China and large corn sales made to Japan and Mexico. U.S. soybean sales to China have been ramping up to help close the gap from last year while there is still room to trail behind since the USDA's soybean export target is down about 12 percent this season. Corn export sales commitments have climbed above their year-ago total by about ...

On the Grains: Promise of rain in parched central Brazil through next week trumped excellent weekly export sales yesterday to pressure grain prices sharply. Prices seem to be stabilizing now, to see how well the forecasts pan out. The wet weather is a plague on soggy southern Brazil.   NOAA put out new winter weather forecasts yesterday. They show a warmer than normal winter ahead for the northern third of the country, but also drier than normal for spring wheat states and the Eastern Corn Belt. Heavier than normal winter precipitation for HRW states, however, would be welcome news.

The "Green Zealots" hyping EV's have fact-lovers seeing red! When I see the breathless hype about how electric vehicles (EVs) will halt global warming and end dependence on liquid fuels I'm speechless. I'm reminded of the famous scene from The Wizard of Oz, where the phony "wizard" projected on a screen tells Dorothy and friends to "pay no attention to that man behind the curtain." Now a major new study puts facts and figures behind the honest skepticism.   The think tank Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF) research is no friend of biofuels because they are funded by Koch, Chevron, Exxon and other fossil fuel interests and have been branded by NPR as "climate change deniers." But there's an old expression that says "The enemy of my enemy can be my friend" and the EV-zealots are no friend of biofuels either!   That said, TPPF has produced credible research showing that EVs on the market today would cost tens of thousands of dollars more if not for a plethora of generous taxpayer-funded incentives. To be precise, the work shows how the average model year 2021 EV would cost $48,698 more to own over a 10-year period without the staggering $22 billion in taxpayer-funded handouts that the government provides to electric car makers and owners.   How? By factoring in unreasonable hikes in federal fuel efficiency standards for liquid-fueled vehicles, inevitable strains on the nation's electric grid, and direct state and federal subsidies. We would note that over-regulation will be self-correcting when proven unrealistic. Consumer ire and market forces ...

On the Grains: Grains are taking a breather from recent strength on forecasts for a brief rainy spell in parched central Brazil. That alone overshadowed a bullish October crush report. It set an all-time monthly record and beat expectations by 2.6 million bushels. Reflecting very strong soybean oil demand, SBO stocks came in well below expectations and at a 9-year low.   However, the longer-term forecast is for hot, dry conditions to return to central Brazil before the end of the month and remain so through December. Further, the excessively wet weather plaguing southern Brazil just won't let up, causing further delays in planting and threatening yield potential of what has been planted.   Switching to corn, the break in prices is also expected to prove brief. Harvest is wrapping up and yesterday's ethanol stats were constructive. Ethanol production was up again from the prior week. It's been running 6% ahead of last year vs. USDA's current forecast to rise less than 3% for the year. Better yet, despite the rising production, stocks declined again, consistent with data showing improved gasoline demand.

Breann Hendrickson, host of our CommStock Digital Network called me "CommStock's Historian" when interviewing me recently. I suppose that seems true but I am not a historian. When young and determining what career path I wished to take, I considered becoming a historian, an academic professor. I found that I did not like school all that much and preferred being self-employed. I enjoyed the Theodore Roosevelt Symposium last month in ND and heard several historians share their work on different topics ranging from the labor movement development in the US and sex worker trade in New York during Tammany Hall. They focused on their narrow subject matter rather than on TR, only connected the two as dots. I had the opportunity to have a fireside chat with the director of the TR Digital library at DSU who was also a historian. I shared my disappointment in that speakers did not discuss more on the relevance of their historical work to TR or to conditions today. He explained that historians do not do that. He says that his job as a historian was to dig up every piece of relevant information on his subject matter but that the relevance to today was the job of an "analyst" to discern. That hit me like an electric shock to realize that I had chosen exactly what I was supposed to be doing. I am an analyst, not a historian.   I take what the historians have discovered and recorded for posterity and extrapolate conclusions out ...

On the Grains: Grains continued to firm in overnight trade thus far. The weather problems in Brazil continue to worsen and are detailed in our weekly Brazilian operations update below. While the focus is on the threat to their soybean production, we explain why it's now threatening corn production as well. Even wheat is firm overnight on improving basis and news yesterday the Indian government would continue its ban on wheat and rice exports "indefinitely" to curb domestic prices that remain stubbornly high despite rapid drawdown of government reserves. Outside markets were the driving force turning markets higher yesterday after opening under pressure from the night before. The U.S. inflation rate for October came in at 3.2%, a 2-year low that was down from 3.7% in September and 8.1% a year ago. It sparked a strong rally in the stock market because it strengthened confidence the Fed would find no need to further raise rates and they might even be able to start trimming rates as early as mid-2024. More importantly for grains, the news led to a sharp downturn in the dollar raising hopes for more competitive export pricing.  The Dollar Index chart now shows clear topping action, a break in a six-month uptrend line and, after yesterday, establishment of an actual downtrend channel. Today we'll get NOPA crush data for October, which is expected to be record large on continued outstanding crush margins. Tomorrow we'll get weekly export inspections that will include recent huge sales to China. Harvest is rapidly wrapping up ...

The public has been shouting one message loudest and clearest to both political parties. That message is that they do not want a rematch of 2020 candidates Trump and Biden. Of all of the poll questions asked, a rejection of Trump and Biden rings up the highest consensus. Republican and Democrat parties are not listening. Each is wrapped up in itself ready to nominate party favorites despite their general unpopularity. The consensus wants new blood. Instead, the parties appear prepared to cover their ears and submit the same names on the ballot forcing the public to choose between retreads that they could not be clearer about not wanting to see run again. Which candidate, Trump or Biden, is ahead in polls is relevant only to the public again being forced to choose between which they see as the lesser evils. Republicans and Democrats are both failing to let democracy work. Both are in fear of it. The Republican Party has split between traditional republicans and the MAGA faction. The split continues to make the US House dysfunctional in spite of it technically being GOP controlled, with another void between the GOP House and their GOP party brethren in the US Senate.   The displeasure with both parties fronting 2020 retreads as candidates is likely to offer opportunity for additional parties or candidates to enter the race and siphon off support from the major party candidates. This could really disrupt the outcome in unpredictable ways challenging the electoral process. The vote could get ...

On the Grains: Yesterday started out with lackluster weekly export inspections, particularly in the beans. Corn loadings at least fell midway in the range of expectations but wheat loadings came in near the low end and soybean loadings didn't even reach the low end of expectations. The markets were very strong nonetheless for two reasons: First, these were actual loadings and not weekly sales. Those big bean sales to China won't show up until Thursday's weekly export sales report. Second, just as we've warned, attention is riveted on declining prospects for Brazil and the reality that U.S. ending stocks will still end the year at 8-year lows, despite the slight boost in last week's WASDE report. After the close, we got the holiday-delayed Commitments of Traders report and it actually helped explain (in my view) the sudden pop in corn futures yesterday. Through last Tuesday, the funds had actually added another 24,156 contracts to their already large net short position, pushing it to net short more than 168,000 contracts. This was BEFORE the WASDE came out and funds likely only added to it after that. I think we saw the start of short-covering in corn yesterday. The jump in beans was even more explained by the COT. Through last Tuesday, funds had already resumed aggressively buying beans to the tune of more than 45,000 contracts. They sold off some after the WASDE, but I suspect began rebuilding yesterday. After the COT we got the Crop Progress Report. Once again, corn harvest fell a couple points short ...