CommStock Reports

Recco Day 1: Buy back 10% of short December 2026 corn futures hedges (for modest 5 cent gain). Buy back 40% of short December 490 corn calls (for modest 2 cent gain). This leaves short futures and long December 450 puts in place to hedge downside against 90% of 2026 corn sales while reopening upside exposure for 50% of the position. The goal is to keep downside protection a bit longer through the growing season while opening longer term upside post-harvest.    ***************************   There are probably a lot of lessons that can be learned in the last week from the market. The first one that comes to mind is, "It is always bullish at the top." Hopefully customers took our advice, selling on the way up. It would have been nice to get closer to the high, but we sold at profitable prices, choosing our targets rather than having it being chosen for us. Had it not been for the Black Swan event in the form of the Iran War, it seems reasonable to assume we never would have seen $5 corn. The seasonal high appears to be in.   Giving up 30 cents in a week should not surprise anyone. Weather is favorable and crops look good. As previously stated, there are reasons to be bullish longer term, but first we must get through a 16-billion-bushel crop. The challenge for those that remain hedged, is when and how to lift those hedges. I can personally attest to the desire to want to lift hedges that ...

06/08/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Fund Selling Continues, Weather Generally Favorable On the Grains Corn and soybeans faced follow through selling overnight. July corn posted another contract low, while December corn dropped to the lowest since mid-August 2025. July soybeans fell to the lowest since early February, while November is trading near the mid-March lows. Wheat traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, with a varied tone this morning – SRW chopping around unchanged; HRW and HRS futures trading modestly higher. Funds continue to shed length in grain and soy futures, as weather is viewed as generally favorable for crop development. As of June 2, their combined net long position across corn, the soy complex and wheat markets was cut to 531,627 futures contracts – about 60% of their length one month prior. But that’s still plenty of length they could shed. Seasonal to above-normal temperatures are expected across the Corn Belt this week. There is a near-daily chance for rains, favoring southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt – areas that are already saturated. Flood Warnings for South China Farmland Heavy rains and flooding are forecast for southern China over the next 10 days, with some areas expected to receiver more than 400 millimeters (16 inches). China’s weather bureau and agriculture ministry have already issued a joint warning for risks to the region’s farmland, much of which produces rice. Areas of north-central and eastern China are also expected to experience above-normal rainfall during the summer growing season. China’s primary corn production ...

Grains poised to open with a rebound attempt that could quickly fall flat. In the Headlines Volatility picked up on a second straight week down for grains. July corn futures fell 29 1/4 cents, July Chicago wheat dropped 30 1/2, and nearby soybeans lost 65 1/4. It was also a volatile week for livestock with August live cattle that finished higher by $2.60 while August feeders gained $5.47. June hogs made new lows for the move after dropping $1.55 for the week. The S&P 500 stock index snapped a nine-week winning streak after having its worst day of the year on Friday. Having just made new record highs earlier in the week, stocks took the hit after a strong jobs report supported hawkish views on interest rates. The focus on monetary policy continues this week with updates on inflation, as well as with the European Central Bank meeting likely producing a rate hike on Thursday. Israel carried out strikes in Lebanon on Sunday despite a fresh ceasefire agreement being in effect, which Israel said had been violated earlier by Hezbollah fighters. Negotiations with Iran were described as remaining at a standstill as skirmishes continued in the Persian Gulf. Comments on the situation were still expected from President Trump later on Sunday. Soybeans were already under pressure on indications that it could still be months before reciprocal tariffs with China are lowered or removed; it compounded the negativity that the Trump administration announced plans for new tariffs under the Section 301 presidential authority to address unfair ...

A significant shift was marked in the expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Futures markets moved to assign a higher probability for the central bank raising interest rates this year over keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75 percent. The updated interest rate outlook was a reversal from the start of the year when traders were pricing in at least two quarter-point rate cuts, with some positioned for as much as a full point of easing. FOMC rate hike odds and bond market yields jumped further on Friday following the monthly jobs report.   Payroll counts were stronger than expected, just as numbers were in the leading employment reports earlier in the week. The Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April measured job openings climbing from 6.9 to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years. Layoffs were down, but fewer people quit their jobs, which signaled diminishing confidence in being able to find something different. Similarly, even though job openings were up, actual hirings were down, suggesting employers were stretching out the hiring process and becoming more selective due to uneasiness about the economy. Another private payrolls report for May beat expectations as it recorded growth in eight out of 10 employment sectors.   Healthy jobs data has coincided with new stock market highs but also with inflation readings rising again after the energy price surge. A resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures were also driving changing views on interest rate potential as stable employment gives the Federal Reserve Bank ...

06/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Relatively Calm for Now After Tumultuous Week On the Grains Corn futures extended their sharp price plunge overnight, with July marking a contract low and December falling to the lowest since mid-January. Soybeans and the wheat markets had a varied tone in two-sided trade. All things considered, grain and soy markets were relatively quiet overnight after a week filled with massive fund liquidation. The aggressive fund selling has left markets overdone to the downside, but it’s difficult to get the herd turned when it’s all heading swiftly in one direction. Bulls need a catalyst to halt the selling and reenergize their efforts. Markets indicate weather conditions are viewed as generally favorable. While that may be broadly the case, these maps signal there are extreme variances. It’s haves (ample soil moisture) vs. have-nots (drought) vs. have too much (saturated). Key through the growing season will be whether the extremes smooth out or widen. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains shaky. Attacks continued overnight between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon after the Iran-backed militant group rejected a U.S.-brokered proposal aimed at securing a broader truce. The U.S. and Iran have made little progress on a peace deal. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are up more than $5 for the week, but there are signs of traders getting war fatigue. Global Food Prices Stabilize… Anything but Stable Global food prices measured by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization slipped 0.2% from the previous month in May as ...

In my view the conflict with Iran is worsening rather than improving. Some believe that President Trump has gotten caught in what they call an "escalation trap". "The escalation trap is a cycle where limited military actions fail to achieve their intended political goals, causing leaders to continuously escalate the conflict in an attempt to bridge the gap between military action and strategic outcomes. This cycle often leads to a widening, uncontrollable war." I think that the president's constant vacillation between additional military action and negotiation is because he is searching desperately for an exit from the trap without admitting he is caught in it. Israel does not want to end the war with Iran still functional enough to continue to be a threat. The US blockade will strain the Iranian economy but they will deem the political benefit, more strain on the global supply chain that will make everyone else hate us more, worth it. Even if some kind of superficial agreement is reached, it will not end the larger conflict. The Mid-East is the epitome of a "forever war" if there ever was one.   I also do not like being misled as to the state of affairs. What I think is true is not what the president is telling us. The situation as I see it, is that I believe that he is struggling with reality, fully surprised at the mess that this has devolved into. Israel and our military decapitated Iran's leadership and destroyed much of Iran's physical ...

06/04/2026 Screwworm Confirmed: Emotion, Money Flow and Perception Vs. Reality Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Screwworm Confirmed: Emotion, Money Flow and Perception Vs. Reality On the Grains Soybeans faced follow through selling overnight after downside breakout from the sideways range on Wednesday. Corn followed, with July futures scoring a contract low and December matching the early February low. Winter wheat markets also traded lower. China has started purchasing U.S. soybeans under the framework of the Busan trade agreement, according to USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden. This is something I alerted you to last Friday via my subscribers-only video. On May 29, USDA reported daily soybean sales of 192,000 MT – 60,000 MT for 2025-26 and 132,000 MT for 2026-27. Daily soybean sales announced on May 14 were similar, with 120,000 MT for 2025-26 and 132,000 MT for 2026-27. It appears these purchases by “unknown destinations” was likely China. The key question now is whether Vaden’s comments mark the beginning of a sustained Chinese buying campaign or simply the first symbolic purchases under the new agreement. Until USDA export sales data verifies the volume and frequency of transactions, soybean traders are likely to view the reported purchases as an encouraging but unconfirmed sign that the trade deal is beginning to move from political commitment to actual execution. China has also likely purchased several cargoes of U.S sorghum. Chinese purchases of wheat may be on the horizon. Heavy harvesttime rains have damaged some of China’s winter wheat crop, which could lower yields and crop quality. That may eventually ...

The corn market has once again given back all its war premium and then some, falling below the $4.70 region.  The back and forth between the on again - off again conflict between the US and Iran continues.  One interesting consequence with war is it tends to invent new technologies (think GPS, early-stage computers).  This war has created a new word.  That word being "quasi-ceasefire" - used to refer to the pending conflict between the US and Iran.  It appears to be an oxymoron such as "quasi-diet".  In this scenario, I believe it means either side promises not to fire on the other….unless they get a clear shot.   While traders appear to want to believe that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon, the current standoff is less encouraging.  Online bets place the chance at opening the Strait of Hormuz by September 1st and 50%.   The market is growing tired of the back-and-forth stalemate.  Crude oil and corn are trading in opposite directions to the start the week.  Bulls will want to keep attention on the quasi-ceasefire but may find it difficult.  The weather outlook is positive, and as such will increasingly apply pressure to the market.  The dry pattern we highlighted last week quickly faded.  Corn continues to trade lower, even breaking major support at the 200 moving average.  We look for a modest bump as the turmoil unfolds in the Middle East, but if weather continues to cooperate, grains could continue to grind lower.  Much has been made of ...

06/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Tariffs Push Rebuilds; Middle East Conflict Continues On the Grains Soyoil futures strengthened overnight and are trading just below Monday’s contract highs. Soybeans followed to the upside. Wheat markets mildly extended their price slides. Corn has come off its for-the-move lows overnight to chop around unchanged early this morning.Traders have a lot of volatile news and events to digest, with many of the factors giving conflicting price signals. The U.S. and Iran continued their clashes overnight, threatening the shaky ceasefire, while the Trump administration proposed new tariffs on a host of key trading partners. Traders are also digesting normal summertime fundamentals, including weather, crop conditions and potential impacts to production potential. The U.S. is proposing new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said late Tuesday.   Following an investigation into how trade partners handle goods allegedly produced by forced labor, a 10% tariff rate would apply to imports from Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Taiwan and UK, among others. Products from other major economies, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Switzerland, would be subject to a 12.5% levy. The levies won’t go into effect immediately and are subject to public comment and review period before implementation. Written comments are due to be submitted by July 6, and a Section 301 panel is expected to convene public hearings beginning on July 7. USTR flagged 34 goods in particular countries that are made with inputs produced ...

Part 2 of 2 One of the most notable differences between this Ag recession and the 1980s farm depression is that this time politicians do appear to be more open to farm aid than before. Back then, we had to have tractor-cade protests and farm-aid concerts to draw attention to the disaster. Back then, farm banks failed in large enough numbers to worry the Fed. There is no issue this time with farm bank solvency. This time Trump exchanges political support from farmers for ACHs, above and beyond farm bill safety net provisions, on a regular basis. It is entirely political, but the ACH deposits spend the same. These payments do not make farm finances whole but they reduce the sting of his trade war policy.  The farm bill safety net is being improved and hopefully will not be deeply drawn upon. It is likely they will pass a new farm bill before the mid-term election. Farmers never got this much attention in the 1980s until the farm banking sector was overwhelmed. The Farm Credit System went belly up but this time they are solvent enough to continue paying dividends to their borrower/customers. They used the farm aid back then to bail out the banks through payments to farmers. That was a response to the farm crisis rather than being any coordinated aid system of financial support that prevented one. This time aid is being dispensed more proactively to prevent the worst-case scenario. The Federal Crop Insurance program has also been ...

06/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grain Purge Continues On the Grains Corn, soybean and wheat futures traded lower overnight, despite lower-than-expected initial crop condition ratings for corn and soybeans and a sharp reduction to Australia’s expected wheat production. Speculators continue to shed length in the grain markets, proving again how powerful money flow can be when the herd gets moving all in the same direction. Crude oil futures eased from Monday’s gains as traders wait on developments in the Middle East amid mixed messages on talked aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. USDA’s initial corn crop condition ratings came in lower than anticipated at 67% good/excellent, down two percentage points from last year and four points below the five-year average. USDA pegged 5% of the crop as poor/very poor. Notably poor conditions were reflected for Ohio, Colorado and Texas – with all sub-50%. That’s a rough start for those states. Colorado and Texas are lacking soil moisture, while Ohio has been saturated. USDA’s first soybean condition rating placed 66% in the good/excellent categories, down one point from last year but one point above five-year average (actually a three-year average since the first ratings weren’t issued this week in 2022 and 2024). USDA rated 5% of the crop as poor/very poor. Ohio is off to a rough start, with only 46% rated good/excellent due to excessive spring moisture. Note: The first weekly crop condition ratings of the growing season will provide an initial benchmark for corn and soybean crop ...

Part 1 of 2 While crop production margins have been negative and subsequently the number of farm bankruptcies has climbed, there is just no where near the degree of financial crisis occurring that defined what the Ag sector went through in the 1980s.  Nationally, farm bankruptcies were 44% higher last year than in 2024, but the increase is inflated in terms of percentage from a relative low level. The farm media talks up the current financial squeeze intending to elicit sympathy from readers and the public but what it shows is the lack of appreciation for what a real farm sector economic disaster looks like. In many ways, the Ag Depression of the 1980s was the defining period of my life.   Interest rates have climbed from historical lows but are a third of what they were at their peak in the `1980s crisis. Commodity prices reflect the value of the dollar. Currently, the dollar index hits a wall near par (100). Comparatively, during the U.S. farm crisis of the 1980s, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged dramatically, peaking at 164.72 in February 1985. This represented an appreciation of roughly 80% to 95% from its mid-1980 trough, devastating American agriculture by pricing U.S. commodities out of global markets. With the US dollar that high, no foreign exchange could afford US farm goods. $3 corn US price became nearly $5 corn to export market buyers because of the currency exchange. My bet today is that with rising inflation the US dollar is likely to weaken ...

06/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video RINs & Repeat for Soy Oil; Corn Struggles Continue On the Grains Soybeans and soy oil strengthened overnight, with the later scoring contract highs and pushing to the highest level since November 2022 on the continuation chart. Wheat also firmed amid corrective buying, while corn struggled to find buyers, with July futures touching the lowest price since Feb. 20.As the calendar flips to June, weather and crop conditions typically dominate traders’ focus. This year, geopolitics and trade remain prominent in headlines, giving traders a split focus. Forecasts call for seasonal to slightly warmer temperatures across northern and western areas of the Corn Belt, while southern and eastern locations are expected to be cooler. Rains are likely to favor the dry western areas of the region. Meanwhile, USDA will issue its first crop condition ratings of the growing season for corn and soybeans after today’s market close, with high marks expected. RIN Prices Surge to Record Highs Soy oil futures, and soybeans by association, are being supported by record prices for Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits. D4 biomass-based diesel and D6 conventional ethanol RINs climbed to all-time highs, underscoring growing stress within the U.S. renewable fuels market and raising compliance costs for refiners and fuel blenders.The rally reflects several converging factors. Feedstock prices for renewable diesel and biodiesel producers have remained elevated, including soyoil, animal fats and used cooking oil, increasing the cost of producing renewable fuels. Meanwhile, conventional diesel prices have remained lower relative to renewable diesel ...

This short holiday week started off like most weeks have over the last three months, with markets taking direction from crude oil. Grain futures gapped lower on Monday night after crude oil was already down sharply in response to news of a peace deal with Iran. Futures settled off their lows on Tuesday, but crude oil kept falling after that to exert pressure on the broader commodity space. The exception was soybean oil, which decoupled from crude and went on a three-day run to new highs. Soybean oil was standing out for having earlier benefitted from strength in crude oil and for now having the potential to rally further because crude oil is weakening. Lower crude oil futures, assuming they weigh on diesel fuel prices, would pinch biofuel production margins and drive up the costs of compliance with the elevated renewable volume obligations recently announced. As primary feedstock for biomass-based diesel fuel, soybean oil futures were rising in step with the D4 RIN credits that cover advanced biofuels. Soybean oil and D4 RINs rising together reflected increasing attention on shrinking RIN carryover banks and the question of whether enough gallons of biofuels can be physically produced to avoid future compliance deficits.   The bullish trend in soybean oil futures may not be enough of a force to withstand continued pullback in crude oil. Biofuel inputs likely face eventual pushback from tightening crack spreads and expectations that soybean oil prices above 80 cents per pound crosses a threshold for making imported feedstocks like ...

05/29/2026 Traders Continue to Favor Soybeans, Soy Oil Morning Market Talk There will not be a morning Market talk due to tech issues.On the Grains Soybeans and soy oil traded higher overnight, with soyoil posting contract highs. Corn and wheat failed to sustain early buyer interest and are mildly weaker. Soybeans are working on modest weekly gains, while corn and wheat are poised for sharp losses. End-of-week and end-of-month positioning will come into play today, with traders monitoring geopolitical events and weather. The U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and discuss the future of Tehran’s nuclear program, pending President Trump’s approval. Markets are proceeding with cautious optimism, as final wording on the memorandum of understanding hasn’t been finalized, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency. The memorandum of understanding would reportedly guarantee that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is unrestricted and Iran would have to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated Trump’s three “red lines” required for a deal — reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran surrendering highly enriched uranium and ending its nuclear program. Markets anxiously wait to see if they get results ahead of the weekend, with a pickup in volatility possible as the trading week wraps up. India Bracing for Weakest Monsoon Rainfall In 11 Years This year’s monsoon rainfall is expected to total only 90% of average across India, which would make it the weakest since 2015, as El Nino conditions reduce rainfall and threaten crop production. ...

Dr Elwynn Taylor, now retired, predicted a major US drought akin to 1936 based upon an 89-year drought cycle and tree ring studies targeting 2025 in his seminars for a number of years prior to that date. Both NW IA and the US produced record yields in 2025 so Taylor was obviously wrong…right? I had pointed out that just a small deviation in an 89-year cycle would provide a window of a few years. I had asked Taylor where he expected the drought to be centered and he said Oklahoma like the last cycle. If you talked to wheat farmers in Oklahoma and Kansas right now, after they just lost their winter wheat crop, they would give a different interpretation of the severity of their being drought than farmers in Iowa would. The US as whole is in a drought as extensive and severe as in the 1930s. Wildfires are surging and the dust blowing is being tracked by satellite. Were we still using the tillage practices such as moldboard plowing like decades ago, another dust bowl would be assured under current conditions. A farmer told me last week that he did not roll his soybeans as he feared creating conditions where the dirt would blow sandblasting his crops. Strip-till, no-till and minimum till hold the soil in place. What is interesting is that the Corn-Belt/Midwest is all that is being spared from drought. Lucky us. Our crops are off to a great start again this year and typically do ...

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains   Soybeans led a round of buying in the grain and soy markets overnight. Soybeans have outperformed corn and wheat recently as traders wait to see if China emerges as a buyer of U.S. cargoes following the recent trade deal. While there's no news on that front, optimism of Chinese purchases is supporting soybean futures. The overnight strength in corn and SRW wheat is nothing more than modest corrective buying tied to the strength in soybeans. Wheat in particular faces an uphill battle as harvest activity will pick up.   Crude oil futures bounced overnight after the U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. U.S. officials say the strikes have been defensive in nature and the ceasefire remains intact, but traders have stopped removing war premium for now.   Markets are headline driven and money flow remains the most important factor in daily trading moves, fueled by the geopolitical and trade fronts.     On the Cattle:   Cattle futures shot higher on Wednesday amid steep discounts to the respective cash markets and signs of strength this week. Cash feeders traded notably higher at auctions on Wednesday and cash fat cattle are widely expected to trade steady at worst. Feeder cattle will have actual results to guide traders, while any follow-through strength in live cattle will be based on expectations, as active cash trade isn't likely until deep in the week. ...

Be careful what you wish for.  The first part of May was unusually cool, delaying crop development and germination.  Warmer temperatures were needed.  Heat is finally catching up to the season as temperatures will be above average in as much as 80% of the Corn Belt this week.  The warmest temperatures seem centered in the Dakotas, where they will see 95 degrees.  As we look out ahead through the month of June, extreme temperatures pull back a bit, but they remain elevated by 5 degrees or more above their averages in much of the Western and Northern regions.  The Eastern Corn Belt meanwhile hovers closer to its historical temperatures.   The near-term forecast has quickly shifted drier.  How long that lasts will determine if it is a good thing or a bag thing.  I am of the belief that it is a good thing for the time being, for a couple of reasons.  First off, after receiving over 3 inches of rain on one of our farms last week, there was some light ponding, and so drier weather is needed.  What is amusing (at least to me) is that our farms fell into the US drought monitor's "abnormally dry" region.  While rain was needed, there was plenty of moisture below the surface.  Every region is obviously different, but it would appear our soil moisture reserves are full despite being considered "abnormally dry".  One of the driest areas is Western Nebraska where a client says they received 1.7" last week.  This will help, ...

05/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat Proving Springtime Rallies Don’t Last On the Grains Corn and wheat opened higher overnight and faded, while soybeans took the opposite path and are trading modestly firmer early this morning. Wheat is proving once again that springtime rallies are really difficult to sustain – even in poor crop years. With harvest results starting to trickle in from the Southern Plains and full-blown harvest just around the corner, speculative money is flowing out of long positions, especially winter wheat markets. Corn is following. Crude oil is weaker amid optimism that a U.S./Iran peace deal and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are coming, despite recent attacks. If support at Tuesday’s spike low and the May 6 low are violated, it would point nearby WTI crude oil futures toward the $89 level that provided support in March and April, after the initial upside price spike due to the war. Crop Emergence Jumps Corn emergence jumped 21 points to 60%, two percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Soybean emergence increased by 17 points to 49%, nine points ahead of average. This week’s heat in the western and central Corn Belt should further boost crop emergence, especially areas that received recent rains and/or have ample soil moisture. USDA will issue its first corn and soybean condition ratings of the growing season next Monday. While quick planting and emergence do not guarantee strong condition ratings, the initial figures are expected to be high. Winter Wheat Conditions Deteriorate Again – With A ...

Out of gas: My daughter tells me when she tried to fill up at her usual gas vendor in Des Moines last week that they were out of lower-grade, cheaper fuel and cars were pulling in and then leaving again empty. She had enough gas to get to Sparky's on HWY 20, but they were out of E-15, the blend she typically uses. So, it was not just price but availability of gas as holiday demand drained the system. I normally do not blame presidents for things like this but this time why not? He created a global shortage of fuel and is selling our gas into the world market creating a domestic shortage. The oil companies should be able to pay for his ballroom and Arc de Triumph given the windfall profits he is making them.   Our gas shortage will be temporary while the one in Cuba is terminal. They depend almost entirely on imported oil in Cuba. They used to get it from Russia, Venezuela and Mexico and now what they get is entirely dependent upon what we let them receive. We are in a political impasse with Cuba and it is a long story how we got here. You can read about it if you wish in 'Cuba, An American History', written by Ada Ferrer which catches you up on the subject. It is not as simple as ideology. It is not a simple story of them being bad and us being good. The regime that runs Cuba ...

05/26/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bears Keep Grip as Iran Deal Fatigue Grows On the Grains Grain and soy futures traded lower coming out of the extended holiday weekend as traders have a split focus between the war situation with Iran and weather. While both could create increased volatility, money continues to flow out of grain and soy markets as traders pare their massive cumulative net long position. Warm temperatures are forecast for the western and central Corn Belt during the next week, while the eastern Belt will trend seasonal to a little cooler. The warmest temps are expected over the northwestern Corn Belt. Rainfall during the next week is expected to be limited to western and southern areas of the Corn Belt into the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys, with the remainder of the region being dry. Warm, sunny conditions will promote crop development in areas with plentiful soil moisture, but rainfall amounts will be critical for the hottest areas, where soil moisture is already lacking. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire overnight even as both sides said there was progress in talks to reach a peace deal. A pattern of optimism followed by retrenchment has become one of the defining characteristics of the extended negotiations. Every new “breakthrough” headline is being met with as much caution as optimism, as deal fatigue builds. On the Cattle:  Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report leaned negative, as all three categories were on the bearish side of the average pre-report estimates. But ...

We honor those who sacrificed their lives in service of our country on this Memorial Day. Grains were closed on Memorial Day before a 7 pm central start for the Tuesday session. Futures were called to a softer start under the weight of lower crude oil, but market sentiment still had the potential to flip based on developments with Iran. In the Headlines Deal or no deal? The weekend headlines started with "Trump says Iran peace deal is near," and then "U.S. and Iran agree in principle to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz," before back-stepping on Sunday to "Iran-US talks continue, no breakthrough yet on war." The market was indicating the consensus expectation for an agreement to be reached as oil futures fell a quick $5 upon opening on Sunday night for the Tuesday session, while stock index and metal futures were higher. President Trump's latest comments were that "Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely!" U.S. officials had earlier told reporters that Iran was agreeing to give up its enriched uranium under a nuclear deal that would still be hashed out over the next 60-days of an extended ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz would reopen with sanction waivers granted to Iranian oil. There were daily export sales reported on Friday morning, including nearly 500,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. No sales were listed for China, making it a week with no immediate follow-up on China's trade deal commitments. A series of large sales announcements could ...

President Trump has said "the clock is ticking" for Iran to make a deal or else "they are going to get hit much harder." Resuming the military offensive against Iran is not off the table for this long holiday weekend ahead, especially after a House vote on war powers was postponed to leave standing President Trump's assertion that the 60-day timer was paused by the ceasefire. While the lower oil market was pricing in elevated odds of a peace deal that could be celebrated over the weekend, also increasing was the potential for traders to be surprised by things blowing up again. As one of many paths forward, consider a scenario where U.S. strikes on Iran continue only briefly as part of what will end the war rather than extend it. Attempting another show-of-strength operation targeting Iran's remaining nuclear capacity could provide political cover for saying again that the nuclear part is taken care of, so hostilities can cease while focus turns to an agreement for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. The contrasting alternative is for a deal to be struck soon, but that currently presumes one of the sides will cross its red line, either Iran agreeing to hand over the enriched uranium or President Trump separating and extending the nuclear talks. It will be a unique holiday weekend for potentially seeing President Trump post about both the tributes of Memorial Day and the present military engagement with Iran.   Outcomes with Iran will influence market expectations about China. For ...

05/22/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Calm… But Will Pre-Weekend Storm Brew? On the Grains Grain and soy futures calmly rebounded overnight following sharp losses the past three days for corn and soybeans, and the past two days in wheat markets. Wheat markets didn’t react to news Argentina will cut its wheat export tax to 5.5% from the current 7.5%, starting in June. Focus today will be on positioning for the three-day weekend with a lot of volatile issues being uncertain, primarily China’s buying commitments and the war with Iran. Headlines will direct price action into the holiday weekend.Despite losses in recent days, corn, soybeans and wheat are poised for weekly gains. Key near-term support stands at last Friday’s knee-jerk reaction lows after traders were initially disappointed in the lack of details from the U.S./China trade deal. Traders wanting Chinese confirmation of specific purchase agreements are going to remain disappointed, as stated previously, as that’s not how Beijing handles these situations. But key will be holding above the May 15 lows. If those are violated, it would open the door to even stronger fund long liquidation. Oil rose, snapping a three-day decline, amid waning optimism over progress in peace negotiations between Iran and the United States. Iran said the latest proposal from the U.S. partly bridged the gap between the two sides, but comments from Iran’s supreme leader about keeping Tehran’s uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in Hormuz clouded the outlook for a deal. Memorial Day schedule Monday, May 25: ...

05/21/2026 Inflate the Debt Away! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update If you followed my advice and locked up your long-term mortgage rates when I said to you a few years ago, many of you have mortgage rates set at 2-4%. My home mortgage is 2.55%. My farm mortgage is with Farm Credit at 4.1% but they pay a dividend of around 1% which brings the effective rate down to almost 3%. Those were the best fixed rates in my lifetime. I have had people meet me in the street, thanking me, and tell me how much they saved when I had told them to refinance and lock down the low rates. Here is another piece of advice. Do not pay these mortgages off early. The reason why?... Because inflation is now 3.8% and rising.  That is higher than our mortgage rates. I do not believe that with $39 trillion in debt, much of which the Treasury has to re-finance soon, that inflation is going down. It is getter harder rather than easier for the US Treasury to be able to find willing buyers of US Treasuries at low rates. They intend to repress that debt by paying it back with cheaper dollars via inflation than when they borrowed it. If you pay back mortgage debt at rates lower than the rate of inflation you technically lose the difference between your mortgage rate and the rate of inflation. Your debt will deflate relative to inflation. If they can ...