CommStock Reports

Soybean futures have trended weaker since the start of December following a rally of more than $1 over the previous two months. Bullish sentiment was tested by a string of days that produced no new reports of soybean exports sold to China. Finally, a flash sale popped up on Friday for soybeans to China, but selling pressure seemed to suggest the business was too little, too late. The soybean board fell right back into a test of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern that coincides with important psychological support at $11-even. The reaction fit with a market that has bought the rumor and now sold the fact of disappointment with China, although verification of the technical breakdown waits for Sunday and Monday to see if bears seize the opportunity.   Farmers were observed to be more aggressive sellers of soybeans in November, many likely with the motivation of rewarding the rally while knowing that crop sales were a hedge against Chinese demand being a letdown. Some may now flip from being skeptical about Chinese trade follow-through to being bullish about that business picking up from here. If Chinese demand materializes in a bigger way, farmers should start to see firmer local basis and firmer futures spreads. Explanations for the market not yet displaying the effects of rumored purchases have been that Chinese importers were already holding long futures in anticipation of a trade deal and that new deals are now being hedged against the basis component of the purchases, with more futures needing to ...

12/05/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Well… We’re Waiting On the Grains Soybeans failed to sustain early buying overnight and are lower this morning – poised to end a seven-week string of higher weekly closes. January futures are holding above the neckline (just under $11.10) on the head-and-shoulders formation on the daily chart that I mentioned on Thursday… something to monitor ahead of the weekend. Corn and winter wheat markets are mildly lower this morning. Corn and SRW wheat futures are currently lower for the week, while HRW contracts are in line to finish higher. Spring wheat futures are modestly higher this morning but lower for the week. USDA didn’t announce any daily soybean export sales to China on Thursday for a fourth straight day, despite multiple industry sources continuing to signal purchases have been made. As I discussed in my subscriber video yesterday afternoon, calendar spreads on the board, along with basis and movement at ports aren’t signaling activity. Something doesn’t add up. We’ll see if USDA confirms any Chinese purchases this morning. Here are the reporting guidelines from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, which is responsible for export sales activity – both daily and weekly sales. By 3 p.m. ET on the business day following the transaction, exporters must report to FAS the quantity sold, the commodity type and class, the marketing year of the shipment, and the ultimate destination. FAS publishes this information on the subsequent business day at 9 a.m. ET. Farmer Aid Plan Becoming Clearer – I Think A farmer aid package ...

Some have been surprised by the weakness seen in the crude oil market. Traders have unsuccessfully attempted to pick bottoms. I would wait until they have become exhausted and broke. No one in the oil business has cried "uncle" yet. That may take a while. Production is estimated to exceed consumption by 4 mln barrels per day which will not improve if the economy slows. The real economy is slowing. A global slowdown could take a barrel of crude oil to the $30's. President Trump says he wants gas prices at $2 a gallon. It appears to be on its way there. I filled with E-30 locally this week for $2.29 a gallon, the lowest price in my memory. Actually, not true…the lowest price in my memory was 19 cents a gallon in 1972 at Kerr Megee and you also got stamps to collect for glassware but that was a different time.   Oil market weakness is the result of sustained global production driven by cash flow needs of major producers while consumption is declining. 60% of new vehicles sold in China are EVs this year. They want to export their cost of production advantage and expanding global EV market share. While the US is refocusing on combustion engines the rest of the world is going EV to the extent possible. China has reportedly significantly built its oil reserves insulating itself to a degree from immediate risk of geopolitical disruption. Also opposite of the US, China has aggressively adopted solar/wind alternative energy ...

12/04/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Traders Waiting on China, Who May Be Waiting On Price Break On the Grains Soybeans recouped some of the sharp losses from the first three days this week during overnight trade. Corn and wheat paused after poor closes on Wednesday, as traders watch the escalating attacks by Russia and Ukraine, waiting to see if President Trump is successful in securing a peace deal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China is on a “perfect cadence” to complete the target of buying 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans. However, he moved the target date from the end of this year to “the end of season, so I think that will be Feb. 28.” Market talk had China buying several cargoes of U.S. soybeans Tuesday/Wednesday. If that’s the case, USDA should confirm them via daily sales today – something that has been missing the past three days. The market still awaits a big rush of Chinese buying. Anticipation of that is keeping soybean futures afloat. But January soybeans have formed a head-and-shoulders formation on the daily chart that bears watching. Violation of the neckline just under the $11.10 area would be technically bearish and suggest traders have lost patience in waiting on Chinese buys. Ironically, that would give China’s state-owned firms an opportunity to buy soybeans cheaper. U.S. and Brazilian soybean export prices are currently about on par, which means U.S. cargoes are 10% more pricey given the difference in tariff rates. That continues to make U.S. soybeans economically unfeasible for Chinese ...

Brazil's 25/26 soybean planting season is on the final stretch, with remaining areas in RGDS and the Northeast expected to finish in the next ten days. Meanwhile, earlier planted soybeans in parts of Mato Grosso and Parana are already beginning to set their pods. Rainfall will be critical in the month of December for grain fill in these areas. The northern tier of Brazil continues to receive abundant rainfall covering Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais and the MAPITOBA region. Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana have been receiving scattered showers from 0" to 2". The forecast shows general precipitation filling in any remaining dry pockets, but it has been showing that for a couple of weeks only for it to continue to remain in the "scattered shower mode".   The dry pattern in Southern Brazil has been well telegraphed at this point. We do see a weather front bringing in a couple of inches mid-December from Argentina over portions of RGDS. This will be important but may not be enough to prevent yield loss. Dry weather anomalies stick to Southern Brazil until the end of the year. If they last much longer than that, rapid yield loss may occur. Overall, we still label Brazil's planting season as favorable, but there is a long season ahead of them.   We have previously highlighted the financial challenges experienced in Brazil, recently referred to as "The Silent Collapse of Brazilian Ag". The last couple of years have been challenging to say the least. Bankruptcies tripled from 2023 ...

12/03/2025 Hope of More Chinese Demand Keeps Beans Buoyant Morning Market Talk Eric is feeling under the weather today, so there will not be a Morning Market Talk. We apologize for any inconvenience. On the Grains Soybeans are trading modestly higher this morning amid hopes of increased Chinese demand. Corn and wheat mildly pulled back from Tuesday’s gains overnight. A cargo of U.S. soybeans is on the water and headed to China – the first since May – and six more vessels are scheduled to load soybeans at the Gulf through mid-December. A cargo of U.S. sorghum destined for China is currently being loaded at the Gulf, with another slated for loading next week. While the shipments signal an initial movement of ag exports to China, the market anxiously awaits news of additional purchases, which have been slower than expected following the trade deal reached at the end of October. ‘Bridge Payment’ Details Now Coming Next Week USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration will announce a “bridge payment” for farmers next week that is designed to provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized. She gave no details of the coming aid amount or when payments would be made. Rollins previously said an aid announcement would be made this week and payments would come in January. As I’ve stated, there is some disagreement within the administration about the level of funding needed and what commodities should be covered. A “bridge payment” implies the aid will likely be smaller than some previous estimates and will ...

There is a huge difference between having pride and being arrogant. I have pride in the US military. I appreciate and thank Veterans for their service. My dad's old uniform with his 4rth Infantry Division insignia hangs in my open closet where I can see it every day. An uncle who served 28 years in the US AirForce was my childhood idol. Nothing wrong with pride. Nothing wrong with self-confidence that accompanies pride. Arrogance is dangerous. The arrogant tend to be careless and their judgement clouded by hubris. Being arrogant is not a good thing for a Commander-in-Chief, Secretary of Defense or of War, or General or Admiral to be. War Department Secretary Pete Hegseth's recent speech to the Command Officers at Quantico was generally well received by some whose opinions that I respect and I defer to them. The speech being noted, they also hold many serious misgivings relative to the Secretary's job performance overall. They did not have the same tolerance, however, of the president's rambling address. The president's message to the command assembled was essentially "do whatever I say or there is the door". The command 4-star Admiral in charge of Southern Command overseeing the Caribbean and South America took the exit, retiring early. They have an obligation to execute legal orders which has never been a problem before until now. Their allegiance is to the Constitution and I don't think that president Trump changed their minds about that in his calling for a domestic role for ...

12/02/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Still Hope For 12 MMT Finish Line On the Grains Soybeans rebounded from a gap-lower start to the overnight session and have recouped more than half of what they lost on Monday. Corn very modestly followed to the upside, while winter wheat markets extended Monday’s losses. As traders wait on Chinese soybean purchases to aggressively ramp up with its 12 MMT purchase commitment for 2025 via the late-October trade agreement on the distant horizon, traders told Bloomberg the lofty goal could still be reached. To date, USDA has confirmed only 2.251 MMT of soybean purchases by China, though some industry estimates of purchases are as high as 4.5 MMT. While U.S. soybeans are now at a modest discount to Brazilian shipments, they are still more pricey when considering the extra 10% tariff American cargoes face. As a result, purchasing U.S. soybeans remains economically unviable for commercial firms, leaving state-owned entities as the sole buyers. Purchases booked before year-end could be shipped in early 2026, even in the 2026-27 marketing year and still count toward the pledge. Using that mechanism, total booked volume could still reach 12 MMT by year-end. Note: The 12 MMT number has been so widely talked about, it’s unlikely purchases totaling that level by year-end would have lasting price impacts, though a knee-jerk reaction by headline-driven algos is possible. Australia Raises Wheat Production Forecast Australia raised its 2025-26 wheat production forecast by 1.8 MMT to 35.6 MMT, which would be 29% above the 10-year average and the third largest ...

By most measures of sentiment and value the stock market is in an AI blowoff of irrational exuberance that will not be different this time in how it ends. Inevitably, it ends with exhaustion and a precipitous fall back to reality. Reality could be a brutal awakening. Warren Buffett is not the only investment icon that is moving to cash. Carl Ichan, Scott Galloway, Ray Dalio, and others have reportedly moved from equities to cash or gold. "Big Short" famed Micheal Burrey is reportedly active shorting AI with put options. Even the "whales" in Bitcoin are reportedly now selling to cash out their tulip bulbs before they wither. A founding owner of Bitcoin reportedly became a real billionaire as he liquidated his holdings near the high-water mark. The crypto mania is cracking (first break). "Rat-shit on poison" is how the late Charlie Munger defined the crypto market. President Trump, initially skeptical of crypto, took his family all in when he discovered what being on the money side of the scam could do for him to evade any constraint of conflict of interest. Confidants can enrich him by investing in his coins. His stablecoin may be his best investment ever. Central banks have been accumulating physical gold into vaults and they will not trade it so it will not be sold. That is the difference between diverging crypto and gold markets. Crypto sellers need greater fools. Precious metals are returning as "the hedge" they have historically been. Gold is a store ...

12/01/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Still Waiting on China Confirmations On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat traded mildly lower for much of the overnight session. Soybean traders await confirmation of rumored Chinese purchases last week. USDA reported daily soybean sales of 312,000 MT to China on Friday, but last week’s purchases were rumored to be upwards of 1 MMT, so some additional sales should be announced this morning. Traders also await the official signed trade agreement between the U.S. and China, which would signal all of the fine details have been hammered out. China Blocks Shipments from Five Brazilian Soybean Plants China on Friday suspended soybean imports from five Brazilian soy processing plants operated by major global traders after inspectors reportedly found wheat grains treated with pesticides mixed into soybean cargoes destined for China. Chinese authorities reportedly halted purchases from two Cargill Inc. units and additional plants run by Louis Dreyfus Co., CHS Agronegócios and Tres Tentos Agroindustrial SA. Of note: The suspensions apply only to the specific units flagged for contamination, and traders can still export to China from other approved facilities. Some companies with cargoes already en route are evaluating alternative plans, including rerouting shipments to other buyers. More Catchup Export Sales USDA will release export sales data for the week ended Oct. 23. Corn export sales are expected to remain strong. On Friday, USDA released export sales data for the week ended Oct. 16. It showed net sales for 2025-26 totaling: Corn: 2.823 MMT Wheat: 341,300 MT Soybeans: 1.108 MMT (571,500 MT for 2026-27) Soymeal: 543,100 MT Soyoil: ...

Corn and soybeans are called mildly stronger in follow-through of a strong finish Friday. Wheat closed mostly weaker and will wait to see if a direction is sustained for the rest of the grain market. In the Headlines USDA reported 312,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China on Friday, which was short of expectations for up to 1 million tons. More confirmation of previous business is awaited this week. Last week featured comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that Chinese ag purchases were "right on schedule," prompting renewed consideration of his previous target for 12 mmt of soybean exports by January. Both he and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins were cited for suggesting that the U.S.-China trade agreement could be officially signed by this week, if not by Thanksgiving. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on tariffs by the end of the year. Reciprocal tariffs implemented by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were challenged and overturned this summer before the appeal was heard by the top court. Event-contract odds of the tariffs being upheld are down to around 28 percent, which increases the likelihood of refunds being required for up to $1 trillion of tariffs already paid by U.S. importers. U.S. government officials were hosting diplomats from Ukraine today to resume talks about a peace deal with Russia. Negotiators would meet with their Russian counterparts later this week. It was reported that Ukraine used under water drones to attack two Russian oil tankers in the ...

  On The Grains:   I hope everyone had a restful Thanksgiving yesterday with family and friends. Though I won't ever cheer for the Cowboys, I am never sad to see the Chiefs lose. Back to the grains, this week was not the quiet holiday week that many expected, with impressive gains in both corn and soybeans posted Wednesday. As we mentioned in the broker comments Wednesday, the market was anticipating large export sales, and those sales were confirmed today by the USDA with 312,000 metric tons of soybeans to China and 273,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations. Though much of this was traded Wednesday, we did see follow through today in both the corn and soybeans, which is positive for both charts from a technical perspective as we close out the week. South American weather looks mostly favorable with moderate temperatures and rainfall scattered across much of the growing region, meanwhile storms are set to bring heavy snow and cold temperatures to much of the Midwest over the next several days.   December Corn:       435'2  +3'4 January Beans:      1137'2  +5'6 December Oats:       294'6  -9'2   December Spring Wheat:      579'2  -0'4 December Chicago Wheat:     531'0  +2'0 December KC Wheat:          517'6  +0'4   On The Livestock:   Cattle futures were bound and determined to take out last week's losses and by golly they did it, giving the cattle complex its first week in the green since highs were posted back in early October. The cattle complex has seen a very turbulent past few weeks with limit moves both up and down and ...

Brazil's rainfall pattern this week did not appear to materialize as far South as originally predicted. Most of Mato Grosso, Goiás and MABITOBA received 1" to 4" this week but Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and parts of Minas Gerais were left with nothing. The forecast continues to show that this dry pattern is short term, bringing heavy volumes of precipitation to start out the month of December. RGDS will be the only state that appears void of precipitation to start the month along with neighboring Argentina. These regions have been well saturated and so this will provide a strong buffer going into a potential "veranico". Our concern is that these regions will now accelerate planting, with limited rainfall on the horizon to help seeds germinate.   As predicted, planting pace seems to have accelerated last week, reaching 82% overall. A big portion of the areas that remain to be planted are those in RGDS which are shifting drier. This brings planting pace back closer to its historical pace. We don't see planting pace as being a material issue as farmers have time to replant. It does however shorten the window (and yield potential) for second crop corn that follows. We spoke with one grower in Mato Grosso that said rains were very spotty. While he had adequate precipitation in his area, he was aware of a farm just 5 miles away that was replanting 20% of his area due to lack of rain.   The Global Grain Conference was held in Switzerland last ...

11/26/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Buys More Soybeans: Confirmation Awaited On the Grains Grain and soy complex futures traded narrowly in quiet overnight price action. Traders await confirmation of any Chinese soybean purchases and news of a potential trade deal between Russia and Ukraine. China made its most active purchases of U.S. soybeans after President Trump held a phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping earlier this week, Reuters reported, citing two traders with knowledge of the deals. One trader said China bought about 12 cargoes, while another estimated the volume at 10–15. That would put purchases in the 600,000 MT (22 million bu.) to 975,000 MT (36 million bu.) range, depending on actual number and size of cargoes. To this point, China has booked 1.939 MMT of U.S. soybeans for 2025-26. USDA should confirm this business via daily sales today or Friday, though some of it could get pushed into next week due to Thanksgiving. Grain Impacts If Russia/Ukraine Peace Deal Ukraine and Russia are reportedly drawing closer to a peace agreement that would end the nearly four-year conflict, which has impacted energy, metals and agricultural trade flows. Impact to oil/gas would be the most notable, while grain flows out of the Black Sea region have generally stabilized after the initial shocks to Ukrainian shipments, though structural constraints remain. Combined, Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 15% of seaborne grain shipments. Alexander Karavaytsev of the International Grains Council told Bloomberg peace would offer “immediate operational benefits,” while longer-term gains hinge on easing ...

One of Shakespeare's most famous quotes was, "First thing we do is kill all of the lawyers." I do not have that level of animosity toward the legal profession but, as I now understand it, what lawyers have to fear most is AI. CNBCs Andrew Ross Sorkin related a story of how when working on a contract he asked AI to summarize it for him and highlight points in it that he should be concerned over. He said that it did a great job and made revisions that Sorkin then requested. He used the document then without ever consulting a lawyer. Chase bank CEO Jamie Dimon said that the bank saved over $2 bln last year by using AI mostly on contracts. There are a whole lot of things that lawyers now do that AI can replace them for. Someone thinking about going to law school should consider this. They might want to become a plumber or electrician instead. I do not think that AI is going to fix my toilet. That is where the real money is. AI might give more honest answers than some people do. It will often say that it cannot answer your question or that something is not within its ability to discern but then gives you tips on where you can go to find out what you asked.   AI is being linked with robotics to do more jobs than it was ever expected that either could do alone. This symbiotic partnership of these technologies will ...

11/25/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grain Chop, Livestock Markets Stay Volatile On the Grains Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets rebounded from Monday’s losses during the overnight session, but buyer interest was light as there was no major market driver. Traders will continue to watch for daily sales activity to China. USDA will release dated export sales activity for the week ended Oct. 9, as it continues the catchup schedule from data that was missed due to the government shutdown. The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade will not be issued today as initially planned. FAS has changed the release date to Dec. 23 instead of today. Two cargo vessels were headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans on Monday to load with the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters. A third vessel was en route to a Texas Gulf Coast grain terminal to be loaded with China-bound U.S. sorghum – the first American shipment of sorghum to China since mid-March. Daily soybean export sales continue to trickle in, with its 2025-26 purchases now up to 1. 939 MMT. Winter Wheat Conditions Improve, Slightly Above Average USDA rated the winter wheat crop 48% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, up three percentage points from the previous week but seven points below last year at this time. The “poor” to “very poor” rating declined two points to 17%, though that was up five points from last year. The 48% good/excellent rating is below the last two years ...

How deep into an Ag Crisis farmers think they have fallen depends on a number of things. First off would be how long they have been draining equity and their depletion of working capital. For a slice of farmers it has already gone on too long and has cut too deep. They have not made money and are bleeding equity. Their operations are in a terminal stage and they can see buzzards circling overhead. USDA financial aid will save some but not all. They have structural problems that either they cannot or will not make the changes necessary to overcome them. There was really no good crop choice this year even in places where they have more choices about what to plant than we do here in NW IA. Loss projections for Ag crops in general show they were all losers. Our critics often say we lose money because we just grow corn/soybeans. They cannot make suggestions however of alternative crops because nothing has been profitable and if there was a profitable niche, its margin too would be quickly crushed when enough farmers shifted to it. The solution is not so simple as to just grow different crops. I have argued for the imperative need to grow demand. Ag lenders are no more in control of conditions and events than we farmers are and are trying to manage farm leverage so that it doesn't become another 1980.     I am not talking about a bad year now and then. There are ups ...

11/24/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Drift Lower as Bullish News Lacking On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat opened mildly firmer overnight but have drifted lower early this morning with wheat leading losses. Traders will continue to watch for Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans and other ag goods. Grain markets need fresh bullish news to revive buyer interest.Southern Brazil Turns Drier Forecasts call for scattered rains across central and east-central Brazil over the two-week period, while south-central and southern areas will trend warmer and drier during the two-week period. Traders deem conditions as mostly favorable as there are no major threats, though some areas have trended too wet (far southern Brazil) and others have been dry (northeastern Brazil). The two-week forecast suggests a shift to more favorable weather in these areas. AgRural estimated soybean planting reached 81% done as of Nov. 20, five percentage points behind last year. The main concern was in Mato Grosso and Goiás, where rainfall has been irregular, delaying planting and causing some flower and pod abortion, the firm noted. It also means there will be a tighter window for safrinha corn planting in those areas. China Corn Rallies on Quality Concerns Corn futures at China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange rallied to the highest since early September as buyers rushed to secure good-quality supplies after heavy rains in northern China. Torrential rains in northern China, which accounts for around one-third of the country’s production have disrupted harvest and caused concerns with stored corn.If this is a serious concern, it ...

Grains are called to open slightly lower before Monday morning's tone is guided by the possibility of flash sales to China. Holiday trading hours include grains and livestock totally closing for Thanksgiving and opening for a short session on Friday from 8:30 – 12:05 central. Currencies, equities, energy, interest rates, and metals will be open for a night session starting at 5 pm on Thanksgiving. In the Headlines The short Thanksgiving trading week has the potential to produce volatility as market participants are out of their normal routines. It will be a unique week for grain futures because first notice day for the December delivery period is on Friday. Thursday is the market holiday, so December contracts will have to be priced or rolled by Wednesday. Last year December corn futures fell before Thanksgiving but then rallied on the Black Friday session. Last week included three daily export sales announcements covering 1.584 million metric tons (58 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China. On Thursday there was also a sale of 132,000 mt of wheat to China. Traders largely shrugged off the news because totals were in line with what had already been reported, and then it was a letdown that no flash sales popped up on Friday. Tyson Food announced the closure of its beef processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska, where it employed about 3,000 people for the capacity to slaughter 5,000 head of cattle per day. Some of the slack will be distributed among other plants, including the Amarillo facility going back ...

Market disparities always exist across the country based on crop production, storage capacity, and the strength of local demand, but this year has seemingly stretched the regional differences to a more extreme degree. Basis, which is a function of the regional supply and demand balance, currently shows cash grain prices starkly firmer in the East versus weaker the West. Watch for signs that the basis gap is narrowing because the crop has been put away in the Western Corn Belt as better export demand develops from shippers in the Pacific Northwest.   A bumper crop will pad stocks in the Western Corn Belt for a long time to come, but returning Chinese soybean demand out of the Pacific Northwest ports would have to compete with a corn export program that is running hotter than ever. PNW export inspections of corn during the last reporting week totaled over 1 million metric tons versus 191,000 mt a year ago. Soybean shipments from the PNW were only 40,000 mt for the week compared to 584,000 mt at this point last year.   Soybean processors in the West have faced considerably less competition from the export market so far this season and the only way that changes is if a sustained bid from China shows up in the Pacific Northwest. Soybean exports through the region have been down to a trickle compared to when China accounted for the vast majority of more than 300 million bushels of soybeans shipped from the PNW in 2024. Corn exports out of ...

11/21/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Trump Intently Focused on Lowering Food Prices On the Grains Soybeans are weaker early this morning, led lower by pressure on soy oil. While January beans are still above Monday’s lows, they are now lower for the week, which would be the first weekly decline in six weeks. Corn and wheat are also lower this morning. Corn and winter wheat markets are poised to post weekly declines, while spring wheat is higher for the week.Trump Expands Tariff Cuts on Brazilian Food Imports; More Steps Coming President Trump issued an executive order that exempts dozens of Brazilian food items from the 40% levy he imposed earlier this year. By lifting the 40% tariff, the White House aims to ease prices on key consumer staples — especially coffee and beef. The expanded tariff exemptions signal a shift in strategy as the administration looks for ways to temper inflation. More steps are in the works by the administration to bring down food prices, which is an increasing pressure point, as Americans are showing increasing dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic management. The Financial Times reports the U.S. may be prepared to scale back tariffs on certain European Union food imports — including beef, lemons and other items — as part of its effort to ease consumer price pressures. Any opening for European beef is likely to face stiff resistance from the U.S. beef industry, which has long been shut out of the EU market due to hormone-use standards, aside from a small quota reserved for ...

Note to Subscribers: I am out of the office this week and have left a 3-part series entitled "Food Security Put at Risk in the Fight for Health Care" to air this Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. I hope that a resolution to the impasse funding the government reached will restore SNAP funding authorization and that concerns over ACA subsidies are favorably dealt with.   Food Security Put at Risk in the Fight for Health Care   Part 3 of 3 As for food security, SNAP eligibility took another haircut in the BBBA. That is not as bad as what happened November 1st when the government shuttered, as SNAP and WIC benefits were stalled despite a federal judge's ruling for the administration to use contingency funds that existed to make full payments. In an effort to comply, the USDA initially made partial payments (65%). That impacted over 41 mln people. Initially, USDA said that no emergency funds would be used to sustain SNAP benefits which was political leverage used to pressure the Dems to agree to open the government. Approximately 131,000 families in Iowa that received $45 mln in these federal funded programs (September) and did not receive full benefits this month. The president ignored the initial court order, attempting to block payments while appealing to the Supreme Court. What does that make him? Opinions will differ. What the ideological battle over SNAP really comes down to is whether it bothers you more that some who may get these benefits may not need them or that ...

11/20/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Jitters Ease for Now; Bullish News Needed On the Grains Soybeans and soyoil stabilized overnight after Wednesday’s sharp selloff. Corn also pivoted around unchanged, while wheat mildly rebounded. Some bullish news is needed to calm market jitters and fuel fresh buying in grain/soy markets. In a surprise to no one, China’s official trade data showed it imported no soybeans from the U.S. in October – the second straight month of no American arrivals. In the absence of U.S. soybeans, shipments from Brazil surged nearly 29% to 7.12 MMT, which accounted for three-quarters of all imports. Shipments from Argentina rose 15% to 1.57 MMT. USDA has confirmed 1.122 MMT of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans via daily sales announcements the past two days. Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans is expected to accelerate, but Brazilian supplies are cheaper than U.S. cargoes, making in economically unfeasible for commercial firms to buy American soybeans, despite the recent trade deal. There has been chatter of additional Chinese soybean buying… we’ll see if any more sales are confirmed by USDA around 8 a.m. CT. Markets Jittery Awaiting Key Biofuels Decisions The Trump administration is considering delaying for one or two years its proposed cuts in incentives for imported biofuels amid pressure from U.S. refiners who argue the move could raise costs and tighten fuel supplies, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing two sources familiar with the matter. Soyoil futures faced heavy selling yesterday on the news but have largely stabilized overnight as traders await confirmation and ...

Brazil soybean planting pace has reached 70% complete overall.  Most center West states like Mato Groso are virtually complete, or close to it.  Planting pace was slightly above average for the bulk of planting, but the last third is falling behind schedule.  Most of that area left to plant is in the Northeast where they usually plant later and RGDS, where excessive moisture has kept growers out of the field.  That looks to change quickly as our weather models indicate a shift from wet to dry in Southern Brazil in the next 30 days or less.  This may pose an issue for crops not yet planted.  Farmers there will be racing to get crops planted…just in time for it to turn dry.   Meanwhile most areas in the Northern tier of Brazil see adequate showers this week with a few dry pockets in SE Mato Grosso, Goiás and a small pocket in Minas Gerais.  All of these areas get filled in with precipitation by next week with virtually every region North of Parana state receiving see 2” to 6”.  Dry pockets will be filled.  Our focus and concern remain on RGDS, which has a history of turning drier in La Niña years.  RGDS’s prominence has dwindled over the years as expansion in the northern frontier areas has narrowed their contribution.  They are expected to produce 22.4 MMT of soybeans, less than 13% of Brazil’s total volume.  A 30% loss could represent 6.6 MMT.  Of course, a portion of that could be made ...

11/19/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Craves More Chinese Soybean Demand On the Grains Soybeans weakened overnight and are nearly a quarter below Tuesday’s high, as confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases were lower than hoped, though more should be coming. At current price levels, soybeans will need consistent supportive news to attract fresh buyers. Corn divorced from soybeans on Tuesday but slipped back into a follower’s role overnight. Wheat chopped narrowly around unchanged.President Trump said Tuesday he wants China to “speed up” its U.S. soybean purchases and asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to keep pressure on Beijing to meet its commitments. But he noted, “Our relationship with China has been very good. And as far as buying our farm products, they’re pretty much on schedule.” U.S. soybean export prices remain above those from Brazil, meaning any Chinese purchases will be made by state-owned firms. Keep in mind, the prices below don’t reflect the extra 10% tariff U.S. soybeans incur versus Brazilian shipments. Ukraine Takes Brakes Off Wheat Exports Ukraine will not restrict wheat exports in 2025-26 due to a bigger crop and lower export rates at the beginning of the current season, the country’s deputy economy minister told Reuters.Ukraine’s government expects to export 17 MMT of wheat in 2025-26, up from 15.7 MMT last year. But through the first four and a half months of the new-crop marketing year, wheat exports stand at 6.8 MMT versus 8.6 MMT for the same period last year. Exports must rise to 10.2 MMT from mid-November through ...