CommStock Reports

President Trump suggested the war with Iran was over, or mostly over, and markets took that to mean they could take the temperature down from boiling. President Trump has his way of saying things that results in what he wants to see happen but are not always truly accurate. The war with Iran is not over until Iran concedes that it is over. We have yet to see evidence that they have been bombed into submission. The regime appears to have survived some mortals blows and is still in control of the country and has resources yet to commit to the fight. They have not surrendered nor have they given up on a key leverage point that will decide the war that I have been harping on…free transit through the strait of Hormuz.   The Mid-East is a tough community. Most of the enmity is between the Jews and Muslims, but not all. There are two kinds of Muslims, the Sunnis and Shiites. They hate each other too. They are represented by Saudis and Iranians. This ingrained culture of hate goes back before Jesus Christ. They practice an eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth way of balancing differences and they keep it up generationally never letting it cool. Christians who promoted turning the other cheek were the radical left-wing liberals to the concept with Crusaders, very un-Christian-like, joining in the intolerance. For centuries nothing has changed except who kills who. Isreal has nuclear weapon to protect their right to ...

03/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Volatile Crude Oil Market Drops, Grains Follow Subscriber Update: One of the collateral impacts of soaring energy prices from the regional war with Iran is to pull CBOT markets higher than expected in sympathy with the oil market rally. This can exceed margin risk-tolerance for some hedgers. President Trump has called the market impact of the war “an excursion” that will be relatively short-lived. That is likely accurate but... it can feel, however, like it will last forever in the emotion of the moment. Margin pressure on hedges results. The duration of the excursion is unforecastable. Crude oil has targets of $120 per barrel, followed by all-time high at $147.27. No one knows the interim upside potential. If oil prices rise high enough, long enough demand destruction will end the rally. When exhausted, these markets will fall faster than they rose. Hedgers should evaluate their CBOT positions and modify their coverage to what they can afford to margin under these unprecedented circumstances. We will again advise when we think that hedges should be fully reinstated. On the Grains Front-month crude oil futures traded lower overnight and are roughly $30 below Monday’s spike high. The pullback started on Monday as the Group of Seven advanced economies announced they are prepared to release strategic oil reserves to stabilize the global energy market if necessary and extended after President Trump said the war with Iran could end “very soon.” Trump said he didn’t believe the fighting would be over this week, but insisted the ...

CommStock Alert: I was correct in anticipating that a 3rd carrier battle group would join the Lincoln and Ford in the war with Iran. I was wrong about which one. It is the USS George H Bush not the USS Theodore Roosevelt moving to the theater. The Roosevelt is backfilling for the previous mission of the Lincoln. We now have 5 carrier battle groups on duty which means it is all hands-on deck for the US Navy. Likely the same for the USAF. The Space Force is contributing to providing targeting info.   CommStock Alert No.2: I can recommend some motion sickness tablets, some prefer wrist bands, to keep the bile from accumulating in your throat from the roller coaster volatility that markets are going to put us through.   My view shared that the S&P was forming a rounding top appears to have come to fruition. 6300 would be the first downside objective. The trap door has sprung open in the potential damage to the global economy from the war. Gold has begun to correct against the dollar having gotten ahead of the dollar. I am still in my turtle-mode holding gold. An Iranian minister said that anyone transiting the Hormuz strait "should be careful". The market took that to mean that vessels under flags that Iran is not at war with could go through. Time will tell. Crude oil will reflect the fundamentals. Let's get into that.   Unconditional surrender is a good place to start negotiations. However, even Ulysses S. Grant ...

03/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Crude Oil Tops $100, Grains Follow New Reco Day 3: The 20% new-crop soybean sales against March 2027 futures were recorded at $11.45, as reflected in the table at the end of this report. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Subscriber Update: One of the collateral impacts of soaring energy prices from the regional war with Iran is to pull CBOT markets higher than expected in sympathy with the oil market rally. This can exceed margin risk-tolerance for some hedgers. President Trump has called the market impact of the war “an excursion” that will be relatively short-lived. That is likely accurate but... it can feel, however, like it will last forever in the emotion of the moment. Margin pressure on hedges results. The duration of the excursion is unforecastable. Crude oil has targets of $120 per barrel, followed by all-time high at $147.27. No one knows the interim upside potential. If oil prices rise high enough, long enough demand destruction will end the rally. When exhausted, these markets will fall faster than they rose. Hedgers should evaluate their CBOT positions and modify their coverage to what they can afford to margin under these unprecedented circumstances. We will again advise when we think that hedges should be fully reinstated. On the Grains Front-month WTI crude oil futures surged above $100 for the first time ...

Grains were set to start on firmer footing after closing last week strong, but most commodities join oil in looking vulnerable to corrective action as there are lulls in the news about Iran. In the Headlines Daylight saving time kicks in today to spring the clock forward. The 2026 spring equinox will occur on March 20th. Weekend developments in the Middle East included Israeli attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, with major fuel storage facilities hit. Iran carried out strikes in Bahrain and Kuwait. The Islamic council of Iran announced it had chosen a new supreme leader but did not announce who it was. The Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen made new threats about entering the war, with observers watching the possibility for the Houthi to target vessels in the Red Sea and to launch attacks against Saudi Arabia. Many headlines addressed the conflict's impact on fuel prices, noting a more than 10 percent jump in the national gasoline average last week and an even bigger move for diesel. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has crimped flows of oil so that stockpiles are swelling for countries like Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar. Kuwait's state oil company declared a force majeure and was cutting production. Nearby WTI crude oil futures surged higher by $23 per barrel to settle just over $90. The impact of war was being felt in the fuel and fertilizer markets. Urea prices were leading the surge for fertilizers with a 5 percent jump from last month, to $611 per ton. The DTN ...

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has triggered a rapid reshuffling of capital across global markets. Rather than a universal risk-off move, the initial reaction has produced a mixed rotation of money as investors adjust war premium among different asset classes. Money was flowing out of some sectors and into others; this week, it was out of equities and into oil, the dollar, and grains. The concepts of war premium have been widely covered to explain why certain markets have moved counter to their normal relationships – for example, the dollar and commodity prices rising together when they usually express inverse tendencies. Now a major risk for commodities is that the pressures from the broader financial market become too much so that rotation among markets ceases, giving way to a flush of funds in one direction – out.   Institutional money flows will help determine the grain rally's staying power along with the reportable managed money traders that have been active from both sides of bullish and bearish. Friday afternoon's trader positions report was expected to show hedge funds flipping net-long in corn futures for the first time since December. Last week was the first time the funds had turned net-long in Kansas City wheat since 2023. Including this this week's action, funds will have their soybean position rivaling the record net-long of 253,000 contracts. Speculative decision-making will intersect with how commercial hedgers respond to price changes. The combined investment money inflows remained significantly more aggressive than farmer selling for ...

03/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grain, Crude Oil Prices Continue to Surge as War Rages On New Reco Day 2: Advance New Crop 2026 Soybean Sales 20% against March 2027 futures at $11.45.  Note: The 20% new-crop corn sales against March 2027 futures were recorded at $4.81, as reflected in the table at the end of this report. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Grain and soy markets are firmer this morning, led by double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets. Soyoil futures faced profit-taking after Thursday’s surged pushed front-month futures to the highest since mid-2023, though they are firmer early this morning and just below yesterday’s highs. Crude oil futures continue to surge, with the front-month contract reaching the highest level since April 2024. May corn futures are the highest since the Jan. 12 post-USDA report collapse and May soybeans are the highest since late-May 2024. New-crop December and November soybeans are at their highest levels since May 2024. SRW wheat futures are trading below Monday’s intraday highs, while HRW wheat is at the highest since early July and HRS the highest since late August. Global benchmark Brent crude oil has rallied 20% this week, while U.S. WTI futures have surged 25% to the highest since April 2024. Developments Tied to Middle East Conflict The bombings in the Middle East moved ...

This was not the report that I had prepared for today but there are a few points, given the geopolitical turmoil, that I feel the need to address. This will follow with the prepared report. Our Chief-broker Eric Relph's son serves in the 4trth Infantry Division. He says that Some of his counterparts in elements of the 3rd Infantry and 8th Airbourne contingent have been called up for deployment to the Mid-East. Boots heading for Iranian ground? Not if they can help it but nothing is off the table. I have no inside info but it would be my guess as to where they could be headed.   Iran says the strait of Hormuz is closed and traffic is off 90%. The oil market is alarmed and that angst is spreading though markets. The US must open the strait of Hormuz to oil transit. President Trump says the US will insure the ships and cargos and provide escorts. There are reportedly 60 large tankers waiting outside the gulf for word that it is safe to enter. Many others are trapped in the gulf waiting for an opportunity to exit. The trade needs to see convoys successfully transit the strait, entering and exiting without incident, in order to build upon confidence that the US is in control of the military and commercial situation there. This could be a flash point for markets. If and when transit of the strait is successful…the war could effectively be at an end militarily. If Iran cannot block ...

03/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Factoring in Extended War Risks New Reco Day 1: Advance New Crop 2026 Soybean Sales 20% against March 2027 futures at $11.45.  Note: The 20% new-crop corn sales against March 2027 futures were recorded at $4.81, as reflected in the table at the end of this report. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Grain and soy markets traded higher overnight with the exception of soy meal, which modestly favored the downside. Crude oil strengthened after Wednesday’s pause, briefly poking to a new high for the move but failing to find sustained buying above Tuesday’s intraday highs. Both gold futures and the U.S. dollar index traded higher overnight. The global bond selloff continued. The war with Iran entered its sixth day, with little sign of easing, as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said retaliatory attacks will intensify in coming days and an Iranian official told state television Tehran has “no intention of negotiating with the U.S.” The duration of military operations remains uncertain, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying “it could be six, it could be eight, it could be three” weeks before they are wrapped up. China’s Five-Year Plan: Slower Economic Growth; Ag Technology Expansion China’s National People’s Congress unveiled a sweeping roadmap for the country’s economic and political future via the “Five-Year Plan.” Highlights: China signaled it is entering ...

The S&P is in a long-term bull market until it isn't. Analysts who have predicted an extrapolation of the trend have been right. Sooner or later a 1980-like event is reached when an existential fundamental change occurs. Demographics that have driven the stock market bull are likely beginning to change as baby-boomers make withdrawals instead of new investments. Upside momentum slowed which typically occurs before a top. Some argue that this is just a rotation from the Big-7 stocks which had dominated gains last year into the balance of the S%P stocks. Investors have become indoctrinated that breaks are always buying opportunities and recoveries follow. They have pretty much become locked-in bulls. There is hubris among investors who think that the market always rises. Sideways grind can also serve as a correction. Resistance and support levels have formed. What will precipitate a breakout? Wars tend to bring economic activity where debt is accumulated as stimulus. Inflation is also impacted. That would drive new economic activity but worsen an already heady debt accumulation. The US has no oil shortage and may temporarily supply the world with oil due to a disruption in the Gulf war with Iran. The situation over the strait of Hormuz has the markets attention. If the war with Iran is successful then oil prices will retreat and the world will be a safer place as the Mid-East becomes attractive for new investment.  We should soon see the grind in the S&P resolve in a breakout.   I borrowed this ...

03/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets, Volatility Calm a Little Overnight New Reco Day 2: Advance New Crop 2026 Corn Sales 20% against March futures to take cash sales coverage to 60%. Maintain new crop hedges in place or add to them as coverage benefits have improved in the last month. Call your broker for more details. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Grain and soy markets traded in relatively tight ranges overnight as volatility in outside markets eased. Crude oil futures remained firm, though gains were limited by a report that Iran had made indirect contact with the U.S. to discuss an end to the war – though it appears the offer is being brushed off in Washington. Gold rebounded from Tuesday amid safe-haven buying, while the U.S. dollar index pulled back. President Trump said the United States is prepared to deploy the U.S. Navy to escort oil and gas tankers through the Persian Gulf and provide insurance coverage for vessels transiting the region. The move is aimed at stabilizing global energy flows as the conflict with Iran disrupts shipping routes and pushes energy prices higher. Trump said U.S. military escorts could begin “as soon as possible” if necessary to protect commercial vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz handles ...

Attendance at the Commodity Classic supposedly reached a new record.  That was both surprising to me (and apparently the organizers at the event) considering the state of the ag economy.  I did feel that farmers in general were not quite as giddy as last year.  The prior year by the time the event took place, corn had rallied over $1.15 off its low, slowly poking its head above $5 per bushel.  Everyone kept whispering amongst themselves how much old crop they had left to gauge whether they could take advantage of that rally.  I remember following behind a couple of guys as we were walking into the convention, and they were discussing that very topic.  One of the guys scoffed at $5 corn, declaring that he was holding out for $5.50.  That proved to be a mistake.   Ironically, the market appears to be working on another rally during the Commodity Classic.  I wonder if we should start to come up with a name for it.  We have the John Deere low, so perhaps this is the Commodity Classic high?  Like last year, we advised rewarding this rally with additional sales.  We advised selling $5 calls.  I remember the crowd chuckled a little bit when I told them that time would tell how smart that was.  That turned out to be the high of 2025.   I can't tell you how Iran will respond in this war or how long it will last.  But I do believe that fundamentals still win out in the ...

03/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Pricing in Renewed Inflation Concerns New Reco Day 1: Advance New Crop 2026 Corn Sales 20% against March futures to take cash sales coverage to 60%. Maintain new crop hedges in place or add to them as coverage benefits have improved in the last month. Call your broker for more details. Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Grain and soy futures rallied overnight, led by double-digit gains in soybeans. Corn, soybeans, soyoil, HRW wheat and HRS wheat are trading above last Friday’s closing levels, though below the initial Sunday night overnight highs. Soymeal and SRW wheat are still well below their pre-war levels. Crude oil futures continue to surge, with the front-month contract reaching the highest level on the continuation chart since last June. The U.S. dollar index jumped to its highest since Jan. 19 and is nearly back to “par” (100.00). Safe-haven buying in gold eased overnight. Global stock markets, U.S. stock futures and global bonds are under pressure, as inflation concerns have reignited amid surging energy prices and supply-chain disruptions, with President Trump vowing to do “whatever it takes” with Iran. Some economists are warning about stagflation if the war with Iran persists for an extended period. Greer Highlights Trump’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer delivered the 2026 Trade Policy ...

Advance New Crop 2026 Corn Sales 20% against March futures to take cash sales coverage to 60%. Maintain new crop hedges in place or add to them as coverage benefits have improved in the last month. Call your broker for more details.   ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.***   I am on sabbatical in Honolulu Hawaii, happy not to be in Mexico. We learn everything 4 hours later than you at home. When hearing of the US strike on Iran my wife asked for assurance that Iran could not strike the US. We had a view of Waikiki and I pointed out a cargo container ship not far out in the ocean. I said how it could happen would be that the roof of containers on the ship would open and a swarm of drones would fly out and strike resorts up and down Waikiki producing panic and chaos. I do not know enough about US intelligence to know how high a risk that is but it is how an asymmetrical war would be fought. It made her think.   Hawaii is an island military base but more focused on China than the mid-east. I am optimistic that our military will achieve the objectives given to it against Iran. The world would be a better place without that belligerent regime. China is watching what we ...

03/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Volatility, War Premiums Spike On the Grains Soy oil futures shot sharply higher overnight, posting contract highs on the daily charts and reaching the highest level since September 2023 on the continuation chart. Soyoil was supported by surging crude oil prices in reaction to the attacks on Iran and resulting conflict throughout the Middle East. Corn, soybeans and wheat gapped higher at the start of overnight trade, though all three filled those gaps, with buyer interest waning early this morning. Gold futures are higher, while the U.S. dollar index rose to its highest since Jan. 22. The major escalation of tensions in the Middle East raises concerns about global energy security and financial-market stability. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, accounting for passage of around one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of LNG shipments. Maritime authorities say there has been no recognized legal closure of the Strait of Hormuz or formal navigation warning declaring the route off limits. However, tankers have reportedly paused, anchored or delayed entry while operators reassess risk following attacks and heightened military activity in the Persian Gulf. Maritime insurers are canceling existing war-risk policies and repricing coverage at higher levels within the Persian Gulf. Prior coverage costs, near roughly 0.25% of a vessel’s replacement value, have jumped significantly, by as much as 50% in some cases. Most maritime insurers say they will withdraw war risk insurance cover for ships entering the Persian Gulf ...

Grains would find support from crude oil's response to the conflict with Iran, but a strong bid has yet to reveal itself as traders otherwise watch out for the possibility of a buy-the-rumor/ sell-the-fact reaction. In the Headlines The U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran that continues on Sunday morning. Initial strikes killed top leaders including Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's Islamic government has appointed interim leadership and carried out retaliatory strikes in Israel and on U.S. assets in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. This week will show the depth of control maintained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard fighters that may have encouragement to defect if promised immunity. The coming days will also include debate in Congress over war powers. President Trump said on Sunday morning that the operation was going "very well" and moving "ahead of schedule," but it was later reported that three U.S. troops were killed and at least 5 others injured. Three oil tankers have reportedly been attacked in the Persian Gulf. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which sees roughly a quarter of global shipments of crude oil and natural gas. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen may also disrupt commercial activities in the Red Sea that handle another 10+ percent of energy flows. China is the biggest customer of energy products coming through the region. Both sides are preparing for President Trump's visit to China scheduled for March 31 – April 2, although the meeting with Xi Jinping ...

So much about markets is political these days. Is that just the nature of things under President Trump, or is it only recency bias because everything has always been and always will be political? It would seem that political sensitivities are truly more heightened than ever in the agricultural markets, with politics serving as a primary driver of prices according to the frequent headlines that cover tariffs and trade, biofuels policy, monetary policy, farm programs and food security. Grain and livestock markets are currently guided by new developments on major political issues being either freshly revealed or imminent.   February was notable for starting off with a soybean rally triggered by President Trump's social media post about wanting to see more purchases from China. Attention to Chinese follow through or lack thereof was ultimately superseded by bullish biofuels news. The month of March is now tagged for bringing the government's goal of finalizing renewable fuel blending volume levels, which were often speculated about this month in anticipation of the Environmental Protection Agency sending its completed rules to the White House. Biofuel policy changes were perceived to be particularly friendly for soybean oil futures, which generated a gain of 15 percent for the month.   Soybean oil futures found an additional boost from bullish leanings on the export outlook. The prospects of a new trade agreement with India put to question whether a return of demand from the world's top bean oil importer would spark more competition with the U.S. soy processing sector as well ...

02/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Poised for Weekly, Monthly Gains New Reco: Day 3: Advance 2025 wheat sales by 50% against May futures. Sell 25% of 2026 wheat basis December futures. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Winter wheat markets led a round of buying in the grain and soy markets overnight. For the week, soybeans are sharply higher, corn futures are mildly firmer and SRW wheat is now working on gains, while HRW wheat is still trading below last Friday’s closing level. For the month, corn, soybeans and the wheat markets are all sharply higher. Crude oil futures are more than $1 higher amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. State Department authorized the departure of non-emergency staff and their families from Mission Israel due to “safety risks,” according to a post on X by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem. A U.S. delegation left Geneva disappointed with the progress of Thursday’s nuclear talks with Iran, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar with the situation, although officials from Iran and mediator Oman were more upbeat. More talks are planned for next week. Traders are also awaiting OPEC+’s meeting on Sunday for signals on future production policy. Aside from the geopolitical noise, today is the last trading day for February, so month-end trade could also create some fireworks. The South ...

Security experts at the State Department and CIA warn US Travelers vacationing in Mexico that they are in danger. As a general rule these vacationers that I talk to push back and rationalize that where they go is safe and it is just the rest of the country at risk. The “rest of the country” is now up to 20 of the 32 states in Mexico and I do not believe that there is any barrier to the danger. It could be said that the US is not totally safe either but the ICE confrontation was primarily in two states, Minnesota and Maine, so far, and while there were protests, airports stayed open here. We have acquaintances trying to get home who were stranded at one of the airports closed down in Mexico…my wife following them on Facebook. The stories of many relating their condition of safety, sound delusional to me. Cars blow up outside and they can hear gunshots but they claim to be safe. They may be right because so far as I know no tourists have been harmed. The rent-a-cop at the condo is not going to protect you from a sicario. I have Canadian relatives, angry over Trump, who sold their winter trailer in Florida vowing to never set foot in the US again. They were scheduled for a month in Mexico starting this week. Where they are going has not been cleared and I don’t think that being Canadian will protect them. Thousands of US ...

02/26/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Continue to Climb New Reco: Day 2: Advance 2025 wheat sales by 50% against May futures. Sell 25% of 2026 wheat basis December futures. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Soybean futures extended gains overnight, along with soymeal, as May soybeans moved to less than a dime from the November high. Corn followed soybeans and soymeal to the upside. Soyoil futures pulled back from Wednesday’s contract highs, following crude oil lower. May Wheat futures were quietly mixed overnight, though SRW contracts are firming early this morning. Crude oil futures are around $1 lower as traders wait for details from the nuclear talks between U.S. and Iranian officials. U.S. negotiators were expected to make it clear Iran must dismantle its three main nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan and deliver all of its remaining enriched uranium to the United States. They were also expected to insist that any nuclear deal must last forever and not sunset. Iran pledged flexibility ahead of the indirect talks, though it wasn’t expected to meet all of the U.S. requests. India’s Crops at Risk with Expected March Heat India is likely to record one of its warmest Marches on record, with above-average temperatures forecast in key wheat and rapeseed-growing states, potentially cutting yields, an official with the India Meteorological Department ...

Despite abundant rainfall, Brazil's 2026 soybean harvest maintains at a fluid pace above their historical average.  Brazil was over one-third finished heading into last weekend and will be close to 40% complete by this Saturday.  I am less concerned about the soybean crop at this point and more interested in the second crop corn that follows.  The majority of the 2026 has enough rainfall to get it to the finish line.  Later planted beans will still need another rain, but the forecast shows adequate rainfall through March in most of the Northern growing regions which represent 70% of Brazil's production output.  Southern Brazil is still the big question mark where states like RGDS continue to face a drying trend in the next 30 days.   Second crop corn is going in right on the heels of the combines, usually following less than half a day's work behind the harvest.   Mato Grosso represents almost half of Brazil's second crop corn output, and they are nearly 70% planted going into last weekend, slightly behind their 5-year average but in lockstep with last year's pace.   The farms in central Mato Grosso we visited are already done, having started as early as Christmas.  Roughly 30% or more of Brazil's second crop corn will go in beyond the ideal window of February 20th.  This is normal.  Most of these growers recognize yield potential drops as the crop cycle enters the dry season, but they are still willing to take the risk anyway.   We finished planting second crop corn ...

02/25/2026 China Shopping for U.S. Soybeans? New Reco: Day 1: Advance 2025 wheat sales by 50% against May futures. Sell 25% of 2026 wheat basis December futures. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There will not be a Morning Market Talk video today due to a power outage at Eric’s location. On the Grains Soybean futures built on Tuesday’s gains overnight, with soymeal, corn and spring wheat also trading higher, while soy oil and the winter wheat markets faced mild selling. Gold, silver and crude oil traded mildly higher overnight. There were unconfirmed rumors that China was shopping for U.S. soybeans out of the PNW on Tuesday. The market waits to see if any business is confirmed over the next couple of days via USDA’s daily reporting system. President Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday evening was the longest in history, declaring “a turnaround for the ages” as he tried to sell Americans on his economic program ahead of crucial midterm elections later this year. Trump toned down his rhetoric in the aftermath of last week’s Supreme Court decision overturning his emergency tariffs, calling the ruling “unfortunate” and “disappointing.” He doubled down with tariff program saying, “As time goes by, I believe the tariffs, paid for by foreign countries will like in the past, will substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax.” On Iran, Trump said, ...

"U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed recently that a "K-shaped economy" appeared to be developing in the U.S. and questioned whether it was "sustainable." The "K-shaped economy" concept expresses the idea that wealthier Americans have enjoyed boom times owing to inflation in their financial and property assets, while poorer Americans are hurt by price inflation in consumer staples such as food and electricity. The result can be seen in charts in which a downward curve shows the variables associated with low-income activity and an upward curve charts the fortunes of the wealthy, forming a "K" shape. The top 10% of earners now account for 50% of consumer spending so as the US economy is 70% determined by consumer spending, it is relying on a narrowing breath of consumers with the economic horsepower still making the economy grow. This shows up in consumer spending patterns such as McDonalds and Walmart doing well because consumers are tightening budgets, avoiding more expensive restaurant and retail venues. The super-K is showing up in auto sales. U.S. new car sales are increasingly driven by high-income earners, with households earning over $150,000 accounting for 43% of sales, up from 30% in 2019, while those earning under $75,000 dropped to 26% of sales. Many still have to have a vehicle to get to work. Due to rising prices averaging over $50,000, the market has bifurcated, making new cars a luxury item. Anything disrupting the incomes of the top 10% will disproportionately add risk to the economy. Powell was asked this question by Christine Romans of NBC ...

02/24/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Remain Key U.S./China Bargaining Chip On the Grains Soybeans and wheat, led by HRW contracts, extended Monday’s losses overnight. Corn continued to pivot around unchanged. Gold, silver and energy markets weakened overnight. The broad marketplace awaits more clarity on the new U.S. tariff program and the situation with Iran. With President Trump having to reshape his tariff program after the Supreme Court ruling, Chinese President Xi Jinping sees the opportunity to “reset relations with the U.S. on Beijing’s terms,” according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). “Chinese officials privately see an opportunity to push for important concessions during Trump’s coming trip to China, scheduled for March 31 to April 2,” WSJ reported, citing people who consult with Chinese officials. Beijing doesn’t want a new, prolonged trade war with the U.S. – its economy can’t withstand that. Beijing wants an extension of the trade truce agreed to at the end of October. According to WSJ, Chinese officials want “a rollback of existing tariffs as well as a reprieve from export controls on U.S. technology that have throttled the Chinese tech sector.” In exchange, Chinese negotiators are reportedly floating high-visibility “deliverables” to give Trump a win at home, such as major orders for Boeing aircraft, soybeans, and U.S. energy. For Xi, “the goal is to parlay Trump’s desire to come away from the summit with a headline-making deal into a strategic softening of the U.S. stance on Taiwan,” WSJ wrote. “Some Chinese policy advisers have internally discussed offering a much larger economic package—potentially including significant purchases of ...

I bought ice cream while on vacation and got a quarter back in change because they had stopped using pennies. That is inflation. The Supreme Court's ruling that IEEPA tariffs are illegal will have more ramifications than the administration suggests. That is why President Trump was so angry. First off, the Supreme Court got it right. Tariffs are taxes and under the Constitution only Congress has the authority to levy them. President Trump was overstepping his authority and he knew it…doing it anyway, hoping SCOTUS would not rein him in. They did their job. This changes the game significantly in how the president can operate. I will get into specifics in this report.   The ruling doesn't change the fact that we, the USA, desperately need this revenue stream that tariffs provide. When President Trump laments that the loss of tariffs would ruin the country, that is not such as an exaggeration. This tariff revenue is necessary not because the US is strong but because we are weak fiscally. This country is on a fiscal path to oblivion. We spend far more that we take in in revenue making up the difference with Treasury borrowing. Foreign nations that used to buy our Treasury debt are selling it and using the money to buy gold. The dollar is at risk. The real eventual crisis comes from that the tariff revenue doesn't fix it. I generously estimated tariff revenue at $368 bln annually. More conservatively, the CBO estimates it would be $270 bln. The ...