On the Grains Yesterday was the fuel, now we need the spark. The USDA/WASDE numbers came out at the low end of the trading range for domestic production (25/26), while exports increased and could rise again in the July report. If there is risk in the July numbers, it’s from lower feed, seed, and ethanol figures. The 50 million export increase feels low, and the USDA is already buffering for decreased ethanol numbers later in the season or holding it in reserve to offset a potential for lower yield if the dryness persists. As a farmer, it seems simple: we don’t grow a bushel of corn, that bushel comes off the carryout, yet history tells us that it’s closer to ½ bushel that comes off the carryout. The USDA is already forecasting record demand, leaving plenty of room for adjustments if needed. Meanwhile, 25/26 global stocks decreased by 10.5 MMT from last year and 21 MMT below the average trade figure. We will post the full report below. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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