The Commstock Report

04/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video War Premium Gone from Grains Despite Geopolitical Mess On the Grains Corn and winter wheat futures are mildly favoring the downside this morning after two-sided trade throughout the overnight session. Soybeans are trading just above unchanged, along with spring wheat. Soymeal is firmer and soyoil is weaker as traders unwind long soyoil/short meal spreads. For the week, corn and wheat markets are sharply lower, while soybeans are near unchanged in a continuation of the nearly month-long consolidation pattern. Crude oil is firmer as traders wait to see if the planned meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan this weekend will take place – and more importantly – if talks produce a lasting ceasefire. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is a potential major sticking point. Iran has reportedly mined the Strait of Hormuz, forcing ships to go through their so-called “toll both.” So… while the strait is technically “open,” it may be open only to those Iran is willing to let through or those willing to pay a tariff to proceed – reportedly $1 per barrel or up to $2 million per ship. Effectively… the strait remains closed.…

USDA WASDE Uptakes: With only a few tweaks, USDA used mostly last month's WASDE numbers in their April update. They will take a more aggressive look ahead in their May report. The 2.127 bln bushel corn and 350 mln bushel soybean carryover projections were unchanged. There was no change in the corn balance sheet and a 35 mln bushel transfer from exports to the crush in soybeans. They increased the wheat carryover by 7 mln bushels to 938 mln. Brazil and Argentina's corn/soybean production estimates were left unchanged. World ending corn stocks were increased by 2 mmts to 294.8 mmts. World ending soybean stocks were reduced .5 mmt to 124.8 mmts. The biggest change was in world ending stocks of wheat…a 6.1 mmt increase to 283.1 mmts. Back now to the weather and planting prospects. Local cash corn basis has improved 14 cents here since price later contracts were priced in late March. Farmers will be going to the field soon rather than moving corn. More rain is forecast here with warming temps. Soil moisture temps desired for planting should catch up with crop insurance dates (April 10th corn/April 15th soybeans) here by the weekend. High N prices may trim…

04/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Stabilize but Aren’t Stable Amid Fragile Ceasefire On the Grains Grain and soy futures strengthened overnight, as the wheat market recouped a portion of Wednesday’s sharp losses, corn futures regained what they lost and soybeans extended yesterday’s gains. Soyoil followed the crude oil market higher in a modest correction to Wednesday’s sharp losses. The broader marketplace is proceeding cautiously as traders wait to see if the fragile ceasefire holds and await the upcoming talks between U.S. and Iranian officials. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with limited ship movement as shipowners and insurer groups said more details will be needed to determine if safe transit is possible. Reports of strikes in the Middle East have eased, but Israel’s desire to keep up attacks on Lebanon is a potential stumbling block. Markets have stabilized from Wednesday’s sharp price moves but are not stable… far from it. Volatility will remain elevated until there’s much more certainty on the geopolitical front. WASDE Report Day… If It Matters USDA’s WASDE Report at 11 a.m. CT is expected to feature minor fine-tuning to its balance sheets, with the distinct possibility that USDA punts…

Following the Iran ceasefire agreement, the grain market appears to be holding up relatively well all things considered.  We had been giving back war premium prior to this ceasefire and so it would make sense that when the actual ceasefire is announced, reactions were thus a bit more muted.  December corn closed at $4.70 on February 27th, the day before massive operations began against Iran and we are currently only 4 cents over that.  Undoubtedly managed money has been building a long position and may look to defend it.  There will be many details that need to be worked out related to the Iran conflict, but we expect focus will shift more towards the fundamentals, principal among those being weather.  There are reasons to be bullish, but most of them can be nullified by a positive weather outlook.   April rainfall appears to be mostly cooperative.  The earliest my soybeans have ever been planted is April 23rd, and I expect they will be planted before that this year.  Temperature outlooks lean normal to above average for approximately 80% of the Corn Belt.  We see drought risks being limited to the outer edges of the Corn Belt in the next couple…

04/08/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video The Ceasefire Heard Round the World On the Grains Soy oil and wheat futures faced heavy selling pressure overnight, following the crude oil market sharply lower after a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran just ahead of Tuesday evening’s deadline from President Trump. Corn followed to the downside. Soybeans rebounded from a gap-lower start and are trading narrowly mixed this morning, with old-crop firmer and new-crop mildly weaker. The broader marketplace response was as expected as traders removed risk premiums. Energy markets, led by crude oil plunged, global stocks and bonds rallied and metals surged, while the U.S. dollar index is under heavy pressure. Key will be the response to the broad knee-jerk reaction overnight. The U.S. has halted all offensive operation in Iran, subject to the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister said that passage through the strait will be possible “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” President Trump said the U.S. “will be helping with the traffic buildup” in the strait. Meanwhile, Israel said it had halted attacks on Iran but was continuing operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Kuwait, Qatar and the United…

Good Question asking… Why Can't We Stop the Drones?... or at least identify them? Yes, there have been numerous reports of drones flying near U.S. airbases here in the US and near bases abroad including major incidents at Langley AFB, Wright-Patterson AFB, Hill AFB, and U.S. bases in the UK (RAF Mildenhall, Lakenheath, Feltwell, Fairford) and Germany (Ramstein Air Base) as well as European and US commercial airports. Potential intentions range from hobbyist activity to intelligence gathering, prompting increased military attention and calls for stronger defenses against these incursions.   Small drones were spotted flying recently near and over Air Force bases in Utah, Ohio, and Germany… Air & Space Forces Magazine confirmed—in addition to the arrest of a Chinese citizen who allegedly used a drone to snap photos of a Space Force base—as a rash of incursions around military installations expands. Unauthorized drones flew over Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, home of a B-52 bomber wing, multiple times the week of March 9. At the start of U.S. operations against Iran on Feb. 28, small drones seen flying over a "strategic U.S. installation" were defeated, the head of U.S. Northern Command told lawmakers. Barksdale announced that it was implementing a "shelter-in-place" order after the drone incursion. We are at war so drones over US bases anywhere are being taken seriously.   The primary question…

04/07/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rainy Forecast Trumps Below-Average Wheat Conditions On the Grains Wheat futures led a round of losses during the overnight session, despite a below-average initial winter wheat crop condition rating from USDA on Monday afternoon. Rains forecast over the central U.S. into at least mid-April pressured winter wheat markets to their lowest level in nearly two weeks. Corn followed to the downside. Soybeans have worked off their overnight lows as soy oil has firmed along with crude oil. The broader marketplace is keenly watching the U.S./Iran war situation. Negotiators are pessimistic Iran will bend to meet President Trump’s demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before his 8 p.m. ET deadline. Markets wait to see if there is a last-minute deal, if Trump again extends his deadline or if the U.S. and Israel unfurl another wave of attacks, expected to target Iranian bridges and power plants. HRW Crop Struggling; Rains on The Way USDA’s initial winter wheat crop condition ratings for the spring came in at 35% good/excellent, down 13 percentage points from last fall and six points below the five-year average. Conditions are especially poor in HRW states, while SRW…

I guess it is good news. After several days of port call in Split, Croatia    where repairs and resupply occurred, the USS Ford is going back into the theater rather than coming home. The USS Ford carrier battle group has been on one of the longest deployments in US Navy history hitting 282 days as of April 2nd. This record-breaking deployment is expected to reach 11 months, potentially exceeding the recent 341-day high set by the USS Nimitz. A normal deployment is 6 months. In many ways the USS Ford is a big computer. As we all know computers require software updates and rebooting every so often. Much of this has to be done in a port. Non-battle issues with the carrier started occurring with its sewer plumbing breaking (Got the "loo" fixed on Artimus II for Easter as well) and a 30-hour fire in its laundry area occurred causing smoke problems in the crew berthing area of the ship.   There are lots of differences between Ford and Nimitz class carriers. One of the biggest is the aircraft launch mechanism. Ford's is electro-magnetic (EMALS) while Nimitz carriers use a steam system. The Ford launch system can put up well…

04/06/2026 Trump Deadline, Key Crop Reports & Economic Data Coming Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video this morning. On the Grains Markets traded both sides of unchanged overnight, with corn and wheat favoring the downside early this morning while soy markets are slightly firmer. Crude oil futures showed initial price strength overnight but have weakened this morning while still reflecting elevated war premium as President Trump on Sunday issued a threat to destroy Iran’s power plants and blow up “everything over there,” before announcing what appeared to be a new Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. Aside from geopolitical happenings, grain traders will get USDA’s initial winter wheat crop ratings of the spring this afternoon. Based on state level updates throughout winter, the good/excellent rating will fall from the 48% level reported both last fall and early April 2025. Weekly crop progress/conditions and the start of spring planting will put a greater focus on weather, especially with dryness/drought encompassing much of the U.S. crop area. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed 80% of the country faced moisture deficits at the end of March, with varied levels of drought over 44% of…

The stock market gave a strong impression via the strong relief rally early this week that it knows something about the timing as to when the war with Iran will end gleaned from the heavy hints dropped by the president. Mondays low could be tested but should serve as strong support as a candidate for becoming the Iran war low in the S&P. I previously took profit on my S&P put too soon. I am going to assume that some traders know things that are privileged information that we are not privy to as the public. In other words, the stock market may be acting on privileged information other than investor consensus. I do not think that is fair but in this case I hope this information is correct. I have said that it did not make sense to me to spend American lives opening the Strait of Hormuz when the US has no need for the oil. That was why we worked so hard to become energy independent.   The media has evidently been doing a good job of informing us of what the President wants us to know as I noted almost nothing in his presidential address that…