The Commstock Report

I receive weekly NDVI maps on my farm showing overall crop health and photosynthesis.  They showed virtually no change from the week prior.  What that tells me is it has withstood the heat so far.  NDVI levels for the US crop are equally strong.  While heat begins to roll back this week, we still see risk of high temperatures in the forecast.  While the crop is holding, sooner or later we are going to need another rain.  We had previously seen strong chances of rain for this weekend blanketing large portions of the Corn Belt but that now appears more spotty.  NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin received a billion-dollar rain on Monday.  (We used to call it a million-dollar rain, but we need to adjust for inflation.)   Much of Nebraska and parts of NE Kansas and NW Missouri look set up to receive a couple of inches.  Most of South Dakota and the "I" states continue to remain predominately dry according to the European model.  The GFS offers scattered showers but not a general soaking rain.  Depending on the region, crop stress will begin to compound with farmer complaints likely switching from "a rain would be nice" to "we…

07/22/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Drivers Favoring Bulls On the Grains: Geopolitics, weather and speculative money flow all favor grain bulls this morning. December corn futures pushed to the highest level since May 29 overnight. November soybeans and December SRW wheat are holding just below recent highs. Bullish factors include: Russia and Ukraine continued attacks on each other, spurring grain supply concerns from the region. Russia has banned vessels in unprotected areas of the Azov Sea. Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon estimates Russia’s July wheat exports will total only 1.5 MMT, down roughly 30% from last year and less than half the five-year July average. That would be the weakest July performance since 2017. HRS Tour: Day 1 shows lower yield potential. The Wheat Quality Council’s HRS and durum tour found an average yield of 45.9 bu. per acre across the southern third of North Dakota along routes from Fargo to Bismark. That was down from an average yield of 49.8 bu. per acre along the same routes last year and just above the five-year average of 45.6 bu., though that was significantly pulled down by the Day 1 average of 29.5 bu. per…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/21/2026 Sun-Tzu with Drones PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Most of you are likely familiar with the story and lessons left by the Chinese General Sun-Tzu that are touted by Generals and Corporate CEOs today. He explained how to win without being the biggest or having the strongest army in a war. His ideas on things like "how to fight" and "when to fight" and "when not to" made him what is considered to be a brilliant strategist. Sun-Tzu was free to command to implement his strategy. Not so today. Our political leaders appear to circumvent military generals who follow the orders of these politicians. Sometimes the best military strategy conflicts with political objectives. We have two major wars going on, one between Ukraine and NATO against Russia brought on by Vladimir Putin. The other is Israel and the US against Iran. While not quite yet up to being called a global world war, they are becoming intertwined with each other in progressively more ways as they escalate in conflict. Iran and Russia are allied against the Ukraine and NATO. Israel…

07/21/2026 Funds Favor Soybeans Amid Split Focus Morning Market Talk Due to an unforeseen family emergency, Eric will not be doing today's Morning Market Talk video. We appreciate your understanding and will resume coverage shortly. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat traded narrowly on both sides of unchanged overnight, despite a lot of potentially volatile market movers, including crop conditions, weather, demand, geopolitics and trade/policy developments. Speculative money actively flowed into soybeans on Monday, maintaining that market’s status as the favored long, along with soymeal and soyoil. Funds haven’t shown a willingness to actively flow money into the long side of the corn or wheat markets. Amid all of the potentially volatile market factors, speculative money flow remains the primary price driver. Crop Deterioration Across Upper Midwest, General Improvement Elsewhere USDA rated 67% of the corn crop and 66% of the soybean crop as good or excellent. That was down one point for corn and up point for soybeans from the previous week. Both were better than traders expected. Corn is rated two points above the five-year average, while soybeans are five points above average. Much of the crop deterioration occurred in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Corn and…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/20/2026 Stress Degree Days are Accumulating in a Lengthening Growing Season PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update After one more hot day today…temperatures back off again below the 86^ threshold for counting SDDs. A few chances of rain pop up in the forecast as well but it will be cooler temps that matter. While temps cool off for a reset this week, they heat up again which is what the market reflected today. When the forecast cools for good the market will be over with too. Another chart gap opened. The 476 retracements target for Dec corn was hit. Soybeans here used the recent heat to grow like crazy. They look visually phenomenal. This appears to me to be the best weed control that I have ever seen in soybeans in this region…almost perfection. We are not in drought here having subsoil moisture reserves that should get us to the next rain. Crops are deep rooted so can tap the moisture below. Young farmers get worried when it doesn't rain. I have learned from experience not to be concerned about it. Our…

07/20/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Break Out On the Grains November soybeans broke out above the May highs overnight, reaching the highest levels since the early days of the contract’s existence. December corn followed soybeans higher but hasn’t yet pushed above last week’s highs. Wheat markets traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, favoring the upside. Forecasts call for a break in the heat this week, with cooler conditions also expected to produce some rains, though coverage is likely to be spotty. Above-normal temperatures are forecast to return to the bulk of the major corn and soybean producing areas late this week through the beginning days of August. The hotter conditions will make timely rains important for crops. Near-normal rainfall is expected into early August. Soybean traders are waiting on confirmation of more Chinese purchases. USDA confirmed sales of 476,000 MT to China last week, though market chatter suggested additional daily sales will be announced early this week. Mexico and “unknown” were also buyers of U.S. soybeans last week. There haven’t been any daily sales of U.S. corn or wheat to China, despite talk of Chinese buyers seeking prices for both. Geopolitical tensions remain…

Grains were called to open steady to slightly softer on a back-and-fill trade following gains posted last week; December corn was up 6 1/2 cents last week, November soybeans were higher by 12 1/4, December Chicago wheat jumped 45 1/4. In the Headlines Fighting with Iran ramped up further over the weekend following the killing of U.S. troops in Jordan on Friday. Iran was launching attacks against U.S. assets in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. U.S. forces were striking Iranian infrastructure including bridges and power stations. President Trump's comments on the situation were limited to this point of the weekend, with the exception of calling for Iran to be added to a Russian sanctions bill that may soon be reintroduced in the Senate. Wheat was the story of last week with Chicago futures rallying 50 cents. A weather market tailwind was sustained while additional risk premium extended from the war in Ukraine and related shipping disruptions in the Black Sea. Focus is put back on the U.S. crop this week with the Wheat Quality Council's annual spring wheat crop tour. Friday featured confirmation for a strong set of daily export sales, including 340,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China. The…

Staying aligned with the hedge funds can be a difficult task when the trader positions report lags the market. Prices can move dramatically after the end of the weekly reporting period each Tuesday to when the data are released on Friday afternoon and to when the market opens again the following week. It is also an inexact science trying to decipher whether a category of traders like managed money is truly bullish or bearish. Seeing the latest fund position in corn turning net-long by about 12,000 contracts paints an incomplete picture because the 'net' part of it came from some speculators holding 306,000 longs while others were carrying 294,000 shorts. Instead of only looking at the net contract count for each trader category in isolation, consider the directional trends underlying each position and whether they are converging or diverging with one another. The strongest signals of bullish speculative sentiment occur when Managed Money, Swap Dealers, and the Other Reportable traders are all increasing longs, with the opposite true on the bearish end.   Managed money rightfully captures the most attention from grain market analysts because of how the discretionary fund traders usually react first to inputs such as weather, crop…

07/17/2026 New Reco Day 3: Reward the rally by selling 10% 2027 December wheat at $7.30 basis Chicago. Feel free to work off the July contract if that works better with your cash flow. We are already 60% sold in 2026 wheat at levels close to where we are now. We advise those behind to make catch up sales on this rally if not already done so. Note: The wheat target was hit July 16. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Quiet For Now; Pre-Weekend Fireworks Possible On the Grains Corn and soybeans modestly favored the downside overnight but are near unchanged for the week. Crops have endured stress from above-normal temps and a lack of rainfall. But forecasts signal cooler conditions and better rainfall chances over the final 10 days of the month, though there’s disagreement between the European and U.S. models on expected rainfall amounts. Traders will position themselves ahead of the weekend based largely on updated midday weather models. Wheat futures paused overnight as…

I have yet to see any signs of a local slowing of our economy. Frankly I see the opposite. "Hiring Now" signs have again proliferated. I live in Dickinson County Iowa…the Iowa Great Lakes region which caters to summer tourism. This entire sector is understaffed here. That is not "it" though. They use the Federal immigrant hiring system or could not operate. We have several manufacturing here…Indian motorcycles, Pure fishing, Rosenboom machine and tool, Brown medical supply manufacturing company, a Nurse placement services company and Safeco commercial furniture manufacturing. All exhibit signs of becoming desperate for workers (literally big signs 'hiring now'). I have a son who works for Pure Fishing who says they cannot find enough employees. A next-door neighbor owns 8 Godfathers Pizza restaurants in the region, and they say they have a major staffing problem. They have a store in Owatonna, MN where they personally have had to keep running daily operations, so they say they do not have time to mow their lawn. Lawn service companies have 'hiring now' signs out too. Lawn irrigation and landscapers here are understaffed as well. Maybe ICE kicking the immigrants out of Minnesota, which bled across the state-line as we…