Skip to main content

05/06/2024 Focus This Week Will Be on Planting Progress and Friday WASDE Guesstimates

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are weak in overnight trade wheat down double digits on some welcome rain in the parched western half of southern Plains states. There is little doubt this afternoon’s crop progress report will show the lead in planting progress for corn and beans with “normal” is gone if not a little behind. But models are conflicted with one suggesting a drier pattern developing by midweek and into the following week that will allow planting to pick up again while another sees the wet pattern less widespread but still problematic from Iowa eastward well into mid-month.   What hasn’t changed over the weekend is the increasingly grim flooding in southern Brazil that’s caught half their crop (and `10% of Brazil’s total crop) unharvested and much of it in standing water. We’ve got the May WASDE due Friday. USDA’s Brazilian crop estimates for both corn and beans have already been regarded as far too high for months and now another 2-5 million tonnes may be lost altogether according to Brazilian sources.   This content is for members only.Log In Register
Read More

05/03/2024 Grains Firm Again Overnight as Most News is Turning Supportive

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are up again in overnight trade. Concern that a prolonged bout of soggy weather for much of the Midwest will greatly slow planting progress remains the driving force. Yesterday’s weekly export sales were at least mid-range vs. expectations for beans but at the low end for corn and wheat and didn’t even make the low end for SBM. Yesterday’s announcement of a looming rail strike in Canada could halt their grain shipping if prolonged and potentially shift more business to the U.S. (More on other Ag implications below.)   Even though Brazil is down to its last 10% of the crop to harvest, rains have been so severe in the southern tip that 2-5 million tonnes of beans and corn might actually be lost and their crop estimates were already well below USDA’s. We’ve set a target for selling more old-crop and the first 10% of new crop beans based on the July contract. It shows first resistance at 1225.  This content is for members only.Log In Register
Read More

05/02/2024 Weather Planting Delays Counter Disappointment over SAF Guidelines

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are firmer in overnight trade with beans leading gains. USDA reported crush in March a little lower than expected but still at an all-time record for any month. It was still enough to hint USDA's current forecast for the year is too low. Rapidly improving basis for beans in Brazil add credence to what private estimates and their own CONAB have insisted for months that their crop is much lower than what USDA has estimated. Weekly ethanol stats from EIA were supportive for corn. Production was higher and stocks lower than trade expectations. YTD data still suggests current corn usage for ethanol projected by USDA is solid and if anything, a little low. Crude oil took a big tumble, when stocks rose by 7.3 million barrels vs. expectations for a 1.5 million barrel decline. On the other hand, diesel stocks fell by 732,000 barrels and are 7% below the 5-year average. Even wheat is firmer overnight despite welcome rain forecasts for parched HRW areas because it won't stop raining in key SRW states and could now start hurting condition ratings. The forecasts for continued rainy weather slowing planting progress are an underlying supportive factor, even though…
Read More

05/01/2024 New SAF Guidelines Verify Worries They’d Be More Restrictive than Current GREET Model

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Markets are mostly weaker in overnight trade. The weather outlook keeps getting wetter for much of the Corn Belt over the next couple weeks, so the planting pace "lead" compared to normal we have at present is likely to rapidly shrink and could even fall behind if the forecasts verify. Yesterday was a blitz of negatives for the grain market rooted in outside markets going into "risk off" mode ahead of this week's Fed meetings that end today. They're expected to stay hawkish on rates in their comments, more than hinting not to expect any cuts in the foreseeable future due to stubborn inflation despite slowing in GDP growth – the very definition of "stagflation" at time that stocks have only recently hit record highs. The DJIA took such a beating yesterday that we had the first lower monthly close after five straight monthly increases. They're down again overnight. The monthly DJIA chart also shows the brief poke above 40,000 was the upper Bollinger band and the Stochastics oscillator in the "overbought" zone since last fall was turning down. It spilled into the grains because the dollar made a new high on prospects for interest to stay…
Read More

04/30/2024 Argentine Woes Have SBM the Unlikely Leader for Soy Complex

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains and soybeans are steady to weak in overnight trade with soybean meal a notable exception. It's up again and punched through some chart resistance overnight. It was up strongly yesterday on news from Argentina. They ship most of their crop as soybean meal and not only is their harvest far behind normal (25% vs. 48%) their oilseed crushers union has gone on strike. Even though rain moved into many areas Thursday and through the weekend, yesterday's Crop Progress Report showed corn planted 27%, pretty much what the trade expected and still ahead of last year's 23% and the 5-year average of 22%. On a state-by-state basis, Missouri, Arkansas and Kansas have the biggest leads over last year and average but Minnesota and Iowa have big leads as well and these 5 states account for a big part of the national lead. As for "laggards", CO, IN, KY, and AL are the only states that are several points behind normal and the rest are all either on track with normal or a few points ahead. Next week, we expect to see the lead shrink back closer to normal with widespread rain through last weekend lingering as it…
Read More

04/29/2024 A Stormy Weekend Will Bog Planting Progress in Much of Midwest but Missed Important HRW Areas in S. Plains

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are steady-to-mixed in overnight trade to start the week. It was a very stormy weekend with over 100 tornadoes, frequent hail and widespread rain over much of the Midwest and Delta, that will slow planting considerably. Yet the pace was brisk through the early part of last week so today’s planting progress report should still show planting on pace with normal because we were a little ahead of normal the prior week.   Wheat was the clear leader in the grains last week on the unexpectedly sharp drop in wheat condition for HRW that more than offset the best ratings for SRW in decades. We’ll likely see further declines in today’s report, the rains have missed up to 40% of HRW wheat in western KS, the OK panhandle and W. Texas. Globally, conditions for wheat continue to deteriorate in southern Russia, eastern Ukraine and parts of western and southern Australia. This content is for members only.Log In Register
Read More

Sign Up For The Commstock Report

Sign Up Now to Improve Your Marketing and Protect Your Profits

Subscribe

Already a Subscriber?
Sign In