05/02/2024 Weather Planting Delays Counter Disappointment over SAF Guidelines

On the Grains Grains are firmer in overnight trade with beans leading gains. USDA reported crush in March a little lower than expected but still at an all-time record for any month. It was still enough to hint USDA’s current forecast for the year is too low. Rapidly improving basis for beans in Brazil add credence to what private estimates and their own CONAB have insisted for months that their crop is much lower than what USDA has estimated. Weekly ethanol stats from EIA were supportive for corn. Production was higher and stocks lower than trade expectations. YTD data still suggests current corn usage for ethanol projected by USDA is solid and if anything, a little low. Crude oil took a big tumble, when stocks rose by 7.3 million barrels vs. expectations for a 1.5 million barrel decline. On the other hand, diesel stocks fell by 732,000 barrels and are 7% below the 5-year average. Even wheat is firmer overnight despite welcome rain forecasts for parched HRW areas because it won’t stop raining in key SRW states and could now start hurting condition ratings. The forecasts for continued rainy weather slowing planting progress are an underlying supportive factor, even though…