04/12/2024 Markets Absorb Fairly “Bearish” WASDE Numbers Surprisingly Well

On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade thus far. Yesterday’s WASDE has been sliced, diced and critiqued thoroughly for being almost stunningly conservative in changes to balance sheets that produced higher than expected ending stocks in U.S. and global balance sheets, particularly in soybeans. Particularly disappointing were the modest 25 million bu. increases in corn usage for feed and for ethanol. It puts feed usage up only 214 million bu. for the year when the March stocks report alone suggested feed usage already up 300 million bu. for the year. The stingy increase for ethanol puts usage for the second half of the year only 58 million bu. higher than last year when first half usage has already been up 166 million from last year. They also inexplicably left soybean crush unchanged from last month despite crush data suggesting it should have been raised to help offset their cut in exports. Yet by end of day, board losses were relatively modest despite USDA’s conservatism, as if that “conservatism” itself had already been dialed in to some extent. Attention now shifts back to planting progress, crop condition ratings and the growing season outlook. We should see the planting pace…