04/11/2024 Room for Surprises in Range of Trade Estimates for Key WASDE Metrics Due at 11am

On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade, a few cents either side of unchanged. The DJIA is down further after yesterday’s big plunge after the March CPI data. It came in higher than expected for the fourth straight month. Back in December, pundits were suggesting up to 6 rate cuts for 2024, then pared to 3 in January and just 2 last month. Yesterday’s news has some pundits now doubting any cuts at all and some thinking there might be another increase in store before yearend instead. That kind of thinking caused a spike in the US Dollar Index that wiped out the slide we’d seen so far this month and made a new high for the year and a gut punch for export prospects. At 7:30, we get weekly export sales, which could set the tone for grains ahead of the 11 am release of the WASDE numbers. Here are the ranges of expectations: Corn 750K to 1.3 MMT, Soybeans 200-600K, and Wheat -100K (due to net cancellations) to 250K. The key WASDE metrics are changes in U.S. ending stocks and the trade is looking for modest cuts for corn and soybeans, and a slight increase for…