04/08/2024 Wide Ranging Estimates for Key Metrics in Thursday WASDE Report

On the Grains Grains were steady to mixed in overnight trade. We’ll get weekly export inspections at 10am but the weekly Crop Progress Report showing the pace of planting and trend in wheat crop ratings won’t be out until after markets close. Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that through last Tuesday Funds were only increasing their net short positions in corn, soybeans, SBM and spring wheat while finally beginning to lighten up on net shorts in Chicago and KC wheat and adding sharply to a new net long position in soybean oil. We also learned over the weekend that the long-awaited subsidy model for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) probably won’t come until mid-May. It’s expected to require that corn used for SAF be grown using one of three “sustainable” methods including efficient tilling, cover crops or efficient fertilizer application. Key to how restrictive that will be depends on how they define “efficient” tilling or fertilizer application. Today’s focus will largely be on the range of trade estimates for the April WASDE due on Thursday. As for U.S. ending stocks, the trade is looking for corn to decline 70 million bu. from March on average, but once again ranging widely…