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  • 10/23/24 Afternoon Commstock Report – The First Crop of Corn Is Planted!!!
    The rainy season continues to establish itself, covering virtually every major growing region in Brazil with 2" to 3" of precipitation this week.  Planters are rolling hard, trying to make up for lost time.  The soybean crop will likely be close to 25% planted overall by the middle of this week.  We expect planting pace to continue to accelerate, to the point where they can plant close to 15% per week.  This would allow planting to catch up to its historical average by late November.  In other words, while the crop may have started late, it could still finish on time.  The state of Parana is nearly half completed already.   My family finished planting nearly 1,300 acres of first crop corn this past Monday.  All of that will go to silage.  Minas Gerais has steadily grown to become the largest first crop corn producer in Brazil.  I think the fact that it is the largest dairy production state has something to do with it.  Over 50% of the first crop corn has already been planted and is closely in line with its historical average.  The Southern states of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana will be finished soon.   Argentina corn planting is lagging its historical pace with nearly 20% planted, however, that is by choice.  Between leafhoppers and drought damage, Argentinian farmers are slowly stepping their toe into the 24/25 planting season.  Longer term weather outlooks look favorably on Argentina and most of Brazil.  The month of November shows above average rain through ...
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  • 10/23/2024 Spreads are Talking, are We Listening?
    On the Grains Flash sales again yesterday to our southern friends, Mexico purchased 395,000 MT (14 million bushels) of corn. While so much has been made of the lack of SAF direction, which we need and most likely won’t get till next spring, exports have been sneaking up on us. Weather in South America continues to dominate the trade talk and they will need to pick up the soybean planting pace or second crop corn will start to become an issue, especially as we close out October and move into November. The December corn chart looks better this morning as long as we can hold the 50% retracement at $4.09. Ideally we would be able to hold the 38% at $4.15. We are currently only ¾ of a cent above that and now it looks unlikely that it will hold through today. With the election only two weeks away polling numbers will be watched like a hawk.
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  • 10/22/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – The Election Aftermath
    Placing a bet on the Doomsday Trade   Folks have been counting down the days until our presidential election assuming that it will decide who will be the next president. Even if the vote is clear there will be no concessions and desperate efforts will be undertaken to secure a different result. Last time the final outcome was not truly decided until January 6th when an effort to take control of the Capital by a mob of protesters was put down. A significant number of members of Congress voted against certification of the election results. A large majority of MAGA Republicans have not accepted that was what happened or the electoral outcome that was consummated to this day. I think that it is more accurate to expect the outcome of this election to again be decided by events that unfold in "The Aftermath of the November 5th vote."   I do not see the MAGA movement accepting anything other than DJT becoming president. I do not think that there are any lengths that they would not go to in order to secure that. Considering the consequences of losing, I do not think that DJT will accept anything other than becoming president either, considering the outcome of losing would mean further prosecution. He has recently said that he may leave the country but given pending court cases that option would be denied to him. The democrats are hoping for a clear win in the margin. What does that look like and why would it matter to MAGA ...
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  • 10/22/2024 Spreads are Talking, Are We Listening?
    On the Grains Export sales dominated yesterday’s trade as we reported last night, which without additional sales today appear to be a one day flash in the pan. South Korea bought 130,000 MT of corn they have been absent from the market for some time now as they generally don’t come into the market place till December. Last year we did see larger purchases from them in the April/May time frame but bigger picture is that they normally buy from China due geographical location, a situation that traders will keep an eye on.    
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  • 10/21/24 Drought Turning to Rout?
    It is difficult to conceive after June/July floods here how dry we have become in this region this fall. When rains get turned on, they are on for record flooding and when they get turned off, they shut off completely.   Here is a picture of soil moisture levels across the Corn-Belt and how dry the heartland progressively has become since summer. The colors depict the 3-month change in soil moisture starting July 6th, showing the then flooded NW Corn-Belt until the end of August when most of the Eastern US had joined us in drought. In September, two Gulf hurricanes pushed the drought in the US back northwest to where it is now centered over Iowa and portions of surrounding states.   We are doing some tiling to try to improve upon weak areas discovered this summer in our drainage system this fall. The tiller says that the existing tile has run dry and soil moisture is gone. Subsoil moisture levels have been depleted. This is the time of year when the crops are no longer utilizing soil moisture when subsoil moisture levels recharge for the next season. Our soil profile can hold 11 inches of water in the ground, where it is often stored until the next summer when the crops need it again. Our level of subsoil moisture often determines the crop that we will get. There is nothing in the forecast to suggest that the current dry pattern is changing. The wind blows here to the point where it has ...
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  • 10/21/2024 Sliding into Monday Sideways
    On the Grains Fresh news is limited as we start the week. Overnight trade was positive for both corn and beans following crude oil. Over the weekend the U.S. is investigating a leak on intelligence about Israel’s plans to attack Iran is supporting crude this morning. Also out this morning was news that the U.S. military does have its THADD, Terminal High Altitude Defense system, along with 100 U.S. soldiers in place to help deter missile strike from Iran. Bottom-line, things are not cooling off and we have the threat of wide spread war still lingering.
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