Joe Camp

“PENDING” WHEAT TARGET HIT: On 3/20/23 we recommended all producers, regardless of class, push cash sales another 10% if May KC futures hit $8.41 and still another 10% of KC May futures hit $8.58. The $8.41 target was hit on 3/21 and the second target was hit Friday 3/24. so all producers should now be 85% sold on ’22 wheat. NEW WHEAT ADVICE DAY 1: Hedge the first 10% of 2023-crop wheat in your respective new crop month at KC, MGE or CBOT when KC July hits $8.49. NOTE: At that same time, we also advise pricing the final 15% of ’22 crop wheat, regardless of class. Opening calls are mixed, but the grains have the potential to see light follow-through after a strong close on Friday. There is again likely to be an outsized influence from conditions in the outside financial markets. In the Headlines Chinese corn purchases continued last week with daily flash sales announced in 3 out of 5 days and totaling another 463,000 metric tons. Fresh export demand from China comes while total U.S. corn sales are still down 34 percent from last year but with the USDA looking for them to drop 25 percent for…

New Monday Wheat Recommendation: We’re using Fibonacci retracement theory to set targets in KC May wheat for advancing old crop sales. Regardless of class, advance old crop cash sales another 10%, to 75% sold, when KC May hits its 50% retracement objective of $8.41. Set a target at a 62% retracement to $8.58 in KC May to advance sales another 10%, to 85% sold. Opening calls are for the grains to start steady as traders sort out cues from crude oil and outside financial markets. In the Headlines Geopolitical tensions are heightened further following Vladimir Putin’s visits to Crimea and Ukraine’s occupied city of Mariupol and ahead of Putin hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Russia this week. China is attempting to support plans that would negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine while locking in new territory for Russia. Complicating the matter for China was the Friday announcement of an arrest warrant issued for Putin by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. European markets will be even more important than usual for setting the Sunday night market tone, since more turmoil with Credit Suisse and other European banks will have to be addressed on Monday. Several regional U.S. banks are…

Grains are called slightly higher to start, but bullishness over weather will have to contend with a risk-off tone that should develop across most markets because of concern about the Silicon Valley Bank drama. In the Headlines The failure of Silicon Valley Bank is going to be felt further this week as regulators decide what to do with billions of dollars of deposits that exceeded FDIC insurance. A run on the bank reportedly produced unfulfilled withdraw requests of over $42 billion last week. Part of those deposits will be counted on by companies that need the funds to make payroll this week, so major layoffs are a possibility. There will also be risk of a domino effect when more companies and individuals attempt to move deposits out of banks that they fear are similarly vulnerable. There may be additional strength in bonds as investors move their money to safer assets, and as traders bet that interest rates will have to ease. The Federal Reserve Bank announced an emergency meeting for Monday, when options for backstopping Silicon Valley Bank will be discussed. On Friday, the market quickly adjusted its odds toward expecting a 25 basis point hike on the next meeting…

Grains look set for a higher start tonight unless something changes to break up an otherwise quiet weekend of news. Another hot, dry weekend in Argentina lends support to the soy outlook while markets attempt sort out the facts about China’s recent interest in buying U.S. corn. Weather is turning friendlier for the moment as better moisture prospects in parts of the U.S. are outweighed by the likelihood of disruption during the early planting season. In the Headlines May corn futures settled 9 1/2 cents lower after rebounding 17 1/2 cents from last week’s low. May soybean futures were down just 1/2-cent for the week. May Chicago wheat fell 13 cents while May KC wheat was down 19 and Minneapolis was down 9 3/4. Russian forces were reportedly close to taking full control of Bakhmut, Ukraine, a city that is important for access into the southeastern Donetsk region. In other news, the Black Sea export deal is still being loosely negotiated. Russian officials have again claimed issue with the agreement in a bid to receive concessions on Western sanctions; however, the deal will be automatically extended if there are no formal exceptions submitted before the renewal deadline on March 18th….