Joe Camp

A lot of weekend still left to go in terms of what could yet pop up into the first session of the new market week, but rising Middle East pressures were poised to give crude oil futures a fifth straight higher Sunday night opening. Grains looked set up toward a slightly stronger start, but again vulnerable to selling off along with crude oil like what happened going into the last several Mondays. Trading sentiment could be tested by expected follow-through on stock prices selling off. In the Headlines The weekend was marked by further escalation of fighting in the Middle East, now with the Houthi rebels in Yemen having rejoined the fray with attacks launched against Israel. The Houthi's involvement worsens the threat against another key energy chokepoint in the Bab al-Mandab Strait that comes out of the Red Sea. Energy infrastructure continued to be targeted by all sides, but there had not yet been a confirmed move by the U.S. to take over the Strait of Hormuz or Kharg Island. It was reported that the USS Tripoli arrived to the region late last week with 2,500 U.S. Marines. Diplomatic negotiations with Iran are reportedly relying on mediation from Pakistan,…

Grains look vulnerable to following through on weaker finishes from last week unless a significant crude oil rally is sustained, which is in question after that the last two weeks saw crude oil making highs to start off and coming down from there. Attacks on Israel continued Sunday by Iran from the south and Hezbollah in the north. Attention was on an Iranian ultimatum from President Trump. In the Headlines Last week ended with the stocks at new lows, for the S&P futures to be down 330 points for the month to date. Nearby crude oil futures finished the week just under $100 to hold a gain of $31 so far for the month. In aftermath of the Fed meeting, the 2-year Treasury yield rose to a new 8-month high of 3.9 percent. May soybean futures closed last week with a loss of 64 cents while May corn rebounded to just 1 3/4 lower. Cattle aligned with the stock market every day until Friday, with April live holding up $3.15 last week while April hogs were down $2.17. President Trump posted a few newsworthy comments on his Truth Social page this weekend, including one with another reference to 'winding down'…

Grains were positioned for a softer start as wider profit-taking was expected following a relative lacking of escalation in the Middle East. In the Headlines New developments with Iran were limited to this point of the weekend, with focus on six U.S. airmen killed in a plane crash in Iraq and on comments from President Trump calling for other countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz to send ships to the help reopen the shipping passage. Trump also threatened additional strikes on Kharg Island that Iran uses as a terminal for 90 percent of its oil shipments. Fresh attacks with drones and missiles were being launched by Iran in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, which included the targeting of ports that did not host U.S. assets. Aside from something with the war popping up to drive crude oil sharply higher, the grains could also get a lift if positive reports are produced by trade talks between the U.S. and China that started on Sunday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were meeting with the Chinese Vice Premier in Paris. Both sides are expected to be searching for points of agreement that…

Grains were set to start on firmer footing after closing last week strong, but most commodities join oil in looking vulnerable to corrective action as there are lulls in the news about Iran. In the Headlines Daylight saving time kicks in today to spring the clock forward. The 2026 spring equinox will occur on March 20th. Weekend developments in the Middle East included Israeli attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, with major fuel storage facilities hit. Iran carried out strikes in Bahrain and Kuwait. The Islamic council of Iran announced it had chosen a new supreme leader but did not announce who it was. The Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen made new threats about entering the war, with observers watching the possibility for the Houthi to target vessels in the Red Sea and to launch attacks against Saudi Arabia. Many headlines addressed the conflict's impact on fuel prices, noting a more than 10 percent jump in the national gasoline average last week and an even bigger move for diesel. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has crimped flows of oil so that stockpiles are swelling for countries like Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar. Kuwait's state oil company declared a force majeure…

Grains would find support from crude oil's response to the conflict with Iran, but a strong bid has yet to reveal itself as traders otherwise watch out for the possibility of a buy-the-rumor/ sell-the-fact reaction. In the Headlines The U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran that continues on Sunday morning. Initial strikes killed top leaders including Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's Islamic government has appointed interim leadership and carried out retaliatory strikes in Israel and on U.S. assets in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. This week will show the depth of control maintained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard fighters that may have encouragement to defect if promised immunity. The coming days will also include debate in Congress over war powers. President Trump said on Sunday morning that the operation was going "very well" and moving "ahead of schedule," but it was later reported that three U.S. troops were killed and at least 5 others injured. Three oil tankers have reportedly been attacked in the Persian Gulf. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which sees roughly a quarter of global shipments of crude oil and natural gas. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels…