Skip to main content

02/19/2024 Monday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
The grain market is closed for President's Day but will open at 7 pm central for the Tuesday session. Early price strength may be supported by short-covering and technical bargain-buying. In the Headlines The Biden administration is reportedly planning to endorse a different standard for measuring climate emissions that will weaken the tax incentive for corn-based ethanol used for making sustainable aviation fuel. The White House previously announced that they would maintain the ethanol-friendly standard, but that there would be changes made by March. Now it seems the changes are basically a flip toward the emissions model preferred by environmentalists, but that the framework of the tax credit would still provide some benefit for farming practices deemed climate friendly. Harvest progress in Brazil is being monitored for what yield results might say about where the USDA will be heading with its crop production estimates. Differing estimates for Brazil's soybean crop from both this year and last year add up to the USDA being ahead of Conab by over 500 million bushels. The USDA forecast for Brazil's new corn crop is almost 10 percent higher than Conab, which is a difference of about 400 million bushels. Corn export sales are running…
Read More

02/11/2024 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
Grains are likely to be little changed on a quiet open while most traders are busy watching the Super Bowl. Food spending for the Super Bowl is expected to rise by about 23 percent this year as at least 110 million people will plan to watch the game. Total food costs are up about 3 percent from a year ago with items such as hamburger and eggs higher while Super Bowl staples like chicken wings, potato chips, and beer are flat or lower compared to last year. In the Headlines Tensions in the Black Sea were raised over the weekend with what Russia alleged was a failed attack by Ukraine against a commercial vessel. It was put into question whether the Russian claim would be a pretense for Russia to retaliate against Ukrainian assets in the southwestern areas of the Black Sea that are key for the passage of ag and energy exports. Friday morning produced another sub-150 million metric ton estimate for Brazil's soybean crop, with the Brazilian consultancy Safras & Mercado coming in at 149 mmt. That same firm has last year's soybean crop at 157.8 mmt. Last week's crop report saw the USDA only lower the 2024…
Read More

02/04/2024 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
A steady to slightly softer open is expected for the grains as technical weakness offsets bullish inputs including dry weather in South America and growing conflict in the Middle East. Trading volumes likely continue to be light ahead of the Thursday crop report. In the Headlines Corn and soybean futures made fresh lows last week with March corn down 3 1/2 cents over the five sessions and March beans off 20 3/4. March Chicago wheat finished lower by just 1/2-cent for the week while KC wheat futures were also just fractionally weaker. February live cattle reached toward a new three-month high on gains of $2.10 for the week. March feeders were higher by $5.10. February hogs were up by 52 cents last week. Much of Brazil and Argentina have their crops under the stress of a hot, dry forecast this week. Both countries have rain in the outlook later next week, but those chances are subject to diminish to disappear. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange just lowered its scores for Argentina's soybean crop down from 44 to 36 percent Good or Excellent. Only one daily export sales announcement was triggered last week to account for just over 200,000 metric tons…
Read More

01/28/2024 Sunday Market Preview

By The Commstock Report
A steady to slightly firmer open is expected as traders price in drier runs of the forecast for South America. There may also be support from crude oil prices if they move higher in reaction to a missile attack on an oil tanker in the Red Sea this weekend. In the Headlines Wheat prices were pressured by news of China approving imports from Argentina for the first time. Argentina is projected to export two-thirds of its wheat production this season, which the USDA estimates at 15 million metric tons versus U.S. output at 49.31 mmt. Export prices for Argentina's wheat are currently about 15 percent cheaper than U.S. hard red wheat values. For all of the bearishness about wheat demand, U.S. wheat exports are actually running quite strong and are ahead of last year's total by 3.2 percent versus a USDA target for them to drop 4.5 percent this season. China and Mexico have been among the top buyers of U.S. wheat along with strong demand from the Philippines. The forecast is turning back dry for much of Brazil over the next few weeks, which will aid progress on the soybean harvest but threaten the outlook for second-crop corn. Argentina…
Read More

Sign Up For The Commstock Report

Sign Up Now to Improve Your Marketing and Protect Your Profits

Subscribe

Already a Subscriber?
Sign In