Joe Camp

The start of a heatwave may inject weather risk premium into the grains to open the week, assuming the commodity space also benefits from the tailwind of oil prices rallying in response to the weekend strike against Iran. In the Headlines U.S. forces used bunker-buster bombs to strike three nuclear facilities in Iran this weekend. Iranian leaders tried to downplay the effectiveness of the operation, but President Trump said the underground nuclear sites were "completely and fully obliterated." There will additional developments according to Iran's response and as U.S. officials continue to give briefings to the public. All markets should show reaction to the widening conflict, but crude oil remains the most sensitive as one possible point of retaliation includes Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, which has recently handled some 20 percent of global oil flows. Another Russian strike against the Ukrainian port city of Odesa occurred late last week. There was damage to a railroad after what Ukraine reported was an attack by 86 drones. An earlier skirmish around Odesa was thought to have contributed to sparking the 25 cent rally for wheat futures on Wednesday last week. The recent return of focus on the port…

Grains look to follow through on a firmer close from Friday, with war in the Middle East and bullishness over biofuel news being the top inputs. Upside may be limited by a favorable weather forecast. In the Headlines Back and forth missile attacks continue between Israel and Iran. Israel's strikes against Iran's nuclear assets rallied crude oil futures by nearly $5 on Friday. The U.S. government is taking a measured approach as President Trump urges Iran to accept a nuclear deal. Soybean oil futures were locked limit up for most of the Friday session in response to the government's announcement of higher than expected renewable fuel volume obligations. A substantial increase of the biomass-based diesel fuel target contributed to the total biofuel blending requirement rising from 22.33 billion gallons this year to 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held this week with the central bank making a decision on interest rates Wednesday afternoon. Market odds are showing an expectation for the fed funds rate to stay unchanged at 4.5 percent. The White House is reportedly scaling back on immigration raids for hotels, restaurants, farms, and meatpacking plants.…

Grains look toward a firmer open in follow up from a positive finish on Friday. Possible disruptions could come from any major changes in the situation with President Trump deploying the National Guard as immigration policy protests erupt in Los Angeles. Traders will otherwise have some optimism over the trade meeting with China. Positions will be prepared for the Thursday crop report. In the Headlines Trade negotiations with China resume on Monday with a meeting in London. The U.S. side will include the Treasury Secretary, Commerce Secretary, and the Trade Representative Ambassador, with China represented by its Vice Premier. This group was previously reported to have reached an impasse, but talks were advanced by a phone call between President Trump and Xi Jingping last week. Trump indicated that the phone call included Xi's assurance that imports of rare earth materials and magnets could continue. It was another record week for the cattle market last week, with futures working up toward fresh all-time highs in the cash trade again. Monday opens up the delivery period for June live cattle futures, which still have the rest of the month to converge with the price. Cash deals jumped by as much as $10…

Still much could change this afternoon, but the grains otherwise look set to follow through on last week with slightly softer corn and soybean futures, but firmer wheat. In the Headlines Weekend trade developments included President Trump announcing that steel and aluminum tariffs would be raised from 25 to 50 percent on June 4th. Trump visited U.S. Steel in Pittsburgh, a company that looks closer to being merged with Japan's Nippon Steel. It was suggested that Japan would be allowed to make a major investment in U.S. Steel but not permitted to fully acquire the company. Grain markets were already reeling heading into the weekend after reports of an impasse in trade negotiations with China. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that China was not removing any of the non-tariff trade barriers as promised last month in Geneva. On Friday morning, President Trump posted that China "HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!" U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr released a report last week that advanced his fight against ultra-processed foods, seed oils, herbicides and pesticides, and fluoride. Many were quick to call out the report for referencing fake…