Joe Camp

Grain and livestock markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day. Grains will open at 7 pm as normal for the Tuesday session. There were pre-openings for Tuesday that included lower stock index futures and sharply higher metals. In the Headlines Tariffs were the talk of the weekend, with new 10 percent charges threatened by President Trump against Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and Finland, and increasing to 25 percent on June 1st, or "until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland." European leaders were reportedly considering to respond with a "trade bazooka" that has been prepared with a collection of measures blocking exports to the United States. Europe will stay in focus with this week's World Economic Forum taking place in Davos, Switzerland. President Trump is expected to attend. Conflict in the Middle East continued with weekend strikes on ISIS in Syria. The U.S. military announced it had killed an Al Qaeda leader connected to the deaths of Americans in December. In Iran, protests were not fully quelled and President Trump told reporters that "it's time to look for new leadership in Iran." Crude oil futures…

Grains are called slightly firmer at the open with direction dependent on outside financial markets before attention turns to the Monday crop report. In the Headlines Last week ended with more trade talk about Chinese soybean purchases that would now be subject for confirmation starting Monday morning. The previous week also finished with similar rumors of China business but then flash sales came out lighter than the pre-advertised totals, stoking further questioning of whether Chinese buyers were skirting the daily reporting system. U.S. soybean sales to China since the fall are thought close to the heavily scrutinized target of 12 million metric tons, but the season is also very close to when Brazilian soybeans will be ready for China to choose from. Lately holding tighter with import permits, the Chinese government will conduct a soybean auction this week. Friday was an opinion release day for the Supreme Court that was expected possible to include a ruling on President Trump's reciprocal tariff authority, but no such decision was announced. Speculation is now that the matter will be addressed in another release day coming this Wednesday. Event contract odds from Polymarket were at 26 percent for the tariffs to be upheld. More…

Grains are called to open on firmer footing as more volume returns, but strong conviction will be lacking in the lead up to the Jan. 12 crop report. In the Headlines Weekend headlines were dominated by the U.S. military's capture of Venezuela's contested president Nicolas Maduro. President Trump authorized the operation to extract Maduro and bring him to New York to stand trial on gang and drug trafficking charges. Trump was noted for saying that the U.S. would "run" Venezuela during a transition that would include the "very large U.S. oil companies" going in. To "get the oil flowing" again in Venezuela, as President Trump stated was his goal, would likely lean bearish the energy market over the long-run, although the uncertainty about what's next can provide short-term support. Venezuela, with the world's largest known oil reserves, has only been putting out about 3 million barrels per day versus the U.S. producing nearly 14 million barrels per day. Venezuela is one of the five original members of OPEC, which this weekend decided to hold its oil output targets unchanged, as expected. A new tax year is here to raise the question of how much farmer selling is set to commence.…

Grains are called to open quietly as traders wait for export sales reports on Monday morning. In the Headlines The market continues its shift into holiday mode, with grains and livestock trading a short session to 12:05 central on Christmas Eve before full closures on the next two Thursdays. Equity futures, interest rates, energy, and metals will open up on the evenings of Christmas and New Year's. President Trump issued an executive order closing federal offices on December 24th and 26th, but those days are not permanent federal holidays, as that would require legislation by Congress. Mail will be delivered as normal and most banks will stay open. USDA did announce rescheduling for some reports, including export sales. Flash sales for soybean exports were announced on four out of five days last week. Private estimates suggest Chinese soybean purchases of around 8 million metric tons to compare with the 12 mmt target that everyone has been focused on. U.S. soybean prices held firmer than Brazilian export offers last week, at $425 per ton out of the Gulf and $420 from Brazil's Port of Paranagua. On Saturday, U.S. Coast Guard personnel seized another oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast. The Panamanian-flagged…

Grains are called steady to slightly softer on a lack of fresh input that would ease the negative tone left from last week. In the Headlines There was movement on peace deal between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend. Ukraine's President Zelensky signaled being willing to give up joining NATO as part of an agreement that would still maintain security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe. Zelensky is in Berlin to meet with Trump administration officials. Russian drone attacks were being carried out over the weekend, including one allegedly launched against a Turkish ship hauling sunflower oil. Mass shootings at Brown University in Rhode Island and at Bondi Beach in Australia were dominating headlines after news from Saturday that three U.S. citizens were killed in an ISIS-linked terrorist attack in Syria, including two members of the Iowa National Guard. President Trump vowed "serious retaliation" for the attack. Chinese trade activity remains the primary point of fundamental guidance for the grains. Flash sales of soybeans to China were announced on four out of five days last week, but traders were focused on the negatives of not seeing a material impact on cash bids and having uncertainty about the timeframe for purchases.…

Corn and soybeans are called to edge weaker after a poor finish on Friday and with uneasiness about President Trump's battle against high food prices. Traders will continue watching for confirmation of Chinese export purchases and for progress toward putting signatures on an official trade agreement. Tuesday is crop report day and Wednesday is the central bank meeting. In the Headlines On Saturday, President Trump issued an executive order "Addressing Security Risks from Price-fixing and Anti-competitive Behavior in the Food Supply Chain." The move aims to lower food costs by investigating "sectors including meat processing, seed, fertilizer, and farm equipment." Friday featured a flash sale for soybean exports sold to China, the first of the week after traders had expected to see quicker confirmation of the business that was rumored to have taken place over Thanksgiving. A generous estimate of activity since the trade deal announcement would cover about one-third of the 12 million metric tons of soybean exports that were previously promised for "this season," although it was clarified last week by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that his reference was to the end of the meteorological winter season in February. Chinese demand disappointment pulled January soybean futures lower for…

Corn and soybeans are called mildly stronger in follow-through of a strong finish Friday. Wheat closed mostly weaker and will wait to see if a direction is sustained for the rest of the grain market. In the Headlines USDA reported 312,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China on Friday, which was short of expectations for up to 1 million tons. More confirmation of previous business is awaited this week. Last week featured comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that Chinese ag purchases were "right on schedule," prompting renewed consideration of his previous target for 12 mmt of soybean exports by January. Both he and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins were cited for suggesting that the U.S.-China trade agreement could be officially signed by this week, if not by Thanksgiving. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling on tariffs by the end of the year. Reciprocal tariffs implemented by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were challenged and overturned this summer before the appeal was heard by the top court. Event-contract odds of the tariffs being upheld are down to around 28 percent, which increases the likelihood of refunds being required for up to…

Grains are called to open slightly lower before Monday morning's tone is guided by the possibility of flash sales to China. Holiday trading hours include grains and livestock totally closing for Thanksgiving and opening for a short session on Friday from 8:30 – 12:05 central. Currencies, equities, energy, interest rates, and metals will be open for a night session starting at 5 pm on Thanksgiving. In the Headlines The short Thanksgiving trading week has the potential to produce volatility as market participants are out of their normal routines. It will be a unique week for grain futures because first notice day for the December delivery period is on Friday. Thursday is the market holiday, so December contracts will have to be priced or rolled by Wednesday. Last year December corn futures fell before Thanksgiving but then rallied on the Black Friday session. Last week included three daily export sales announcements covering 1.584 million metric tons (58 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China. On Thursday there was also a sale of 132,000 mt of wheat to China. Traders largely shrugged off the news because totals were in line with what had already been reported, and then it was a letdown…

Grains called to edge weaker at the open with early week action set to show the extent of technical damage inflicted by the Friday crop report. Attention otherwise shifts right back to whether any Chinese export business materializes. The mood will also be influenced by financial markets either stabilizing or spiraling further into risk-off mode. In the Headlines December corn futures finished 12 cents off their high but still held a gain of 3 cents for the week. January soybeans gave back 22 cents on Friday but were left higher by 7 1/2 cents last week. Wheat futures were down slightly over the last five sessions. December live cattle dropped about $2 for the week and January feeders gained $1. November feeders jumped over $12 as they approached expiration on Thursday this week. December hogs were down 90 cents last week. Gold futures lost $100+ to close the week as interest rates were back in the spotlight. Expectations shifted in response to hawkish comments by various central bank officials, including one suggesting that lowering interest rates will not fix unemployment caused by "structural change in technology and immigration policy." Odds implied by interest rate futures dropped from 67 to 44…

Grains are called to open quietly steady unless the stock index futures are snowballing lower by that point. Last week showed cracks in the recent grain price strength as the broader financial market flipped risk-off. A late Friday recovery for stocks looks more likely to extend into temporary stability that puts the attention of grain traders back onto Chinese buying. We will discuss moving to reward the soybean price rally this week. In the Headlines Reduced flights were the latest product of government shutdown cuts, with shrunken and unpaid air traffic control teams causing the Trump administration to cancel thousands of flights. Scheduled air traffic is set to decline by 10 percent this week and up to 20 percent if the shutdown continues. A new development on shutdown affecting SNAP payments also came on Friday evening with a court order that suspended an earlier ruling requiring the government to pay full benefits. China followed through on removing certain controls against metals and other elements heavily used in the production of smart phones and other technology hardware. Export restrictions were suspended on Friday for lithium and most of the rare earth minerals, and then on Sunday for gallium, germanium, and other…