Joe Camp

Grains look set for a slightly higher start, but the tone of trading could turn bearish if crude oil faces heavy selling. Market participants are sorting out fresh developments in the Middle East. In the Headlines Rebels toppled the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad over the weekend. Assad has fled the country, possibly with assistance from Russia. The rebel fighters are an Islamist group that has ties to al-Qaida and ISIS, but they have support from Turkey and oppose the Islamic factions backed by Iran. President Trump reacted to the developments on social media by saying, "The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved." The countdown continues toward a December 20 deadline for government funding. A lame duck session is expected to produce a continuing resolution that will pass the responsibility for approving federal spending bills to the next Congress. Also still expected before lawmakers leave for the holidays will be an extension of the Farm Bill. Failing to address the Farm Bill would mean a reversion to "permanent law" that brings back some of the program rules from the 1930's and 1940's. There…

Bids and offers looked to be stacking up toward a slightly firmer grain market open. Crude oil and the dollar index will again be monitored for their reactions to the latest geopolitical developments. In the Headlines Trump's tariff plans dominated headlines last week. Mexico and Canada are targeted for 25 percent tariffs while imports from China face an additional 10 percent tax on top of existing tariffs. Mexico's new president responded with a statement and later had a phone call with Trump that markets responded favorably to. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump over the weekend. Chinese officials released a statement that criticized the tariff threat, but they did not go so far as to bring up retaliatory agricultural tariffs. The Brazilian real currency fell to a new all-time low against the dollar last week. Forex traders were not impressed with the Brazilian government's plan to cut spending and raise taxes. The real is also down against the Chinese yuan by about 15 percent since the start of the year, so the result is that the terms of trade have shifted further in favor of China buying from Brazil over the U.S. Tariffs and…

Grains look set for a steady to slightly softer open as traders watch for guidance from the outside financial markets, especially the dollar index after it rallied to a new two-year high on Friday. A shortened holiday trading week includes markets closed for Thanksgiving and open for a shortened session on Friday. Interest rates, equities, energy, and metal futures will be open for trading on Thursday night. Grain futures do not have a night session on Thanksgiving; they will open at 8:30 am central on Black Friday before closing early at 12:05 pm. In the Headlines President Trump announced his selection for Secretary of Agriculture over the weekend, Brooke Rollins from Texas. Rollins was the director of the Domestic Policy Council during Trump's first term before last leading a research institute that supported Trump's 2024 campaign. She will be the voice to address how agriculture may be impacted by tariffs and changing trade policy as well as the official who would implement any changes to school lunch programs or SNAP benefits that might be pursued by the nominee for Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. All of the various farm organizations have released their estimates for the price…

Political headlines continued to dominate the weekend news cycle as fresh developments were limited in other areas. President Trump selected oil-fracking company CEO Chris Wright to be the Secretary of Energy. Conflict in the Middle East was heating up at the end of the week with reports about Israel destroying an Iranian nuclear facility, but then it looked evident that Iran was backing down from its recent promise of attack, instead supporting Lebanon to work toward a ceasefire agreement with Israel. Grain futures may face early selling pressure if crude oil kicks off the week softer like it has so often lately. In the Headlines The edible oil markets attracted extra attention again last week as reactions to both the Trump EPA head selection and the Senate leader election were considered for their future influences on biofuels policy. Soy oil futures were correcting lower along with palm oil before both markets closed better on Friday. Indonesia's government confirmed that it would implement a biodiesel program requiring palm oil blends of at least 40 percent. It also helped soy and palm oil that Chinese government officials confirmed plans to remove tax subsidies granted to exporters of used cooking oils. Traders were…

Fresh news was limited through Sunday morning, so the political stories continued to dominate. Iran's latest threat against Israel remained a heightened risk point for global security and the markets. There was also a flaring of conflict with Russia after Ukraine launched its largest-ever drone attack against Moscow over the weekend. Grains look to have a firmer open on the contingency that crude is up while the dollar index edges back lower. In the Headlines December corn futures rallied 16 1/2 cents last week. November beans gained 34 1/4 cents. December Chicago wheat futures were up 4 1/2 and Dec KC wheat futures lost 2 1/2. December live cattle were down $2.22 while November feeders finished the week lower by $1.45. December lean hogs dropped $3.65. Spurring angst over the weekend was news that President Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer to take the U.S. Trade Representative spot again. Lighthizer was the architect of Trump's trade war with China and was a lead negotiator for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Lighthizer is a deficit hawk and protectionist that has a long history of battling against China and the World Trade Organization. China was observed as a light buyer of U.S. soybeans last…

T-minus 2 days until the election. Traders are factoring in the news of Harris leading Trump 47 to 44 percent in Iowa. The forecast came as a surprise against previous predictions in a state that went for President Trump by solid margins in 2016 and 2020. The poll of Iowa voters conducted for the Des Moines Register has been known for accuracy; however, it was contrasted by an Emerson College survey that had Trump still holding a sizable lead. Chatter on the subject seemed aimed toward giving Harris advanced odds relative to last week, which could initially lean bullish for the grains by way of speculative short-covering. In the Headlines December corn futures dropped 3/4-cent last week. November beans fell 5 1/4 cents. December Chicago wheat futures lost a penny and Dec KC wheat futures gave up 5 1/4. December live cattle were down $3.77 while November feeders finished the week lower by $2.75. December lean hogs rallied $4.40. The order of events begins with the election on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 1 pm central Thursday, with the week capped off by the November crop reports at 11 am Friday. Uncertain is the timing…

Grain futures may still be stuck in the loop of starting on the defensive after closing weaker the previous Friday, which is how the last several weeks of have went. More of the strong grain export data could help spark an upside turnaround for prices if there is also support from the outside markets. Traders in all markets will have this as the last full week to adjust positions ahead of the election. In the Headlines December corn futures gained 10 1/2 cents last week. November beans rebounded by 17 3/4 cents. December Chicago wheat futures lost 3 3/4 cents and Dec KC wheat futures fell 8 3/4. December live cattle were up $1.82 while November feeders finished the week higher by 97 cents. December lean hogs held positive by $1.85. U.S. harvest pressure and better weather shaping up in Brazil are the dominant negative factors for grain futures again at the start of the week, but last week showed that buyers can surface if they have motivation on the demand side. Last week featured flash export sales on all five mornings. While daily sales announcements should be expected regularly at this time of the year, the totals are stacking…