05/03/24 Objectives for Potential Technical and Weather Rallies

For corn, RJO technician Dave Toth identifies the current price strength as being still only a “bear market correction” that would mark out a C-Wave on the Elliott count, but he says the alternative is for this rally to be a “dramatic 3rd-Wave of a major reversal higher.” The possibility of broader trend change needs to see July corn futures sustain a move above $4.75, which would complete a 50-percent retracement of the slide from the October high. July soybeans have to first clear their March high at $12.40 before they can reach the 50-percent retracement level at $12.81.   On the way higher, old-crop corn and soybean futures could possibly face pushback from heavier farmer selling. At $4.75, many farmers across the country are getting close to or above $4.50 cash values while a rally toward the $12.81 futures target would likely bring the average cash soybean bid near $12. It is also notable that a rally for July corn to $4.75 should be expected to poke the new-crop December contract into the $4.90’s. More farmers are expected to make their first sales or hedges for the new-crop if the December contract gets close to $5, which is not…