The Commstock Report

07/31/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rains A Wet Blanket On Corn, Soybeans On the Grains: Grain and soy futures are under pressure this morning, aside from soymeal which is modestly firmer. After filling the July 20 gap yesterday, December corn futures are making for-the-move lows. November soybeans and the wheat markets are holding above their recent lows for now. A broad swath of rain is moving across the western Corn Belt and will push into the eastern Belt later this morning, providing timely moisture for developing corn and soybeans. However, amounts were light in the driest areas of the western Corn Belt and limited rainfall is expected in these areas through Monday. China’s Soybean Buys Continue New-crop soybean sales to China as of July 23 increased to 2.781 MMT – the most for the date since 2022-23. If you add in daily sales since July 23, China’s new-crop commitments are just over 3 MMT. That’s 12% of the 25 MMT the U.S. says China pledged to buy. There’s another 2.829 MMT of new-crop soybean sales on the books to unknown destinations, which is likely China. The combined 5.6 MMT would be 22.4% of the pledged…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/30/2026 The End of the World Order as We Knew It PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I am on vacation this week meeting our family in Brazil. After drinking Matthew and Carol's coffee, I am looking forward to seeing the trees it comes from in Minas Gerais. The Seibt family, Matthew's in-laws there, expanded their coffee production a few years ago and his wife Carol and Matthew began importing it into the US. I'm leaving you with this report which was derived from Ian Bremmer's TED Talk adapted into a structured article format. Ian is considered to be the worlds foremost geopoliticist taking nothing away from Peter Zeihan. The Three New World Orders: Who Really Runs the Planet? For decades, answering the question "Who runs the world?" was simple. If you grew up during the Cold War, you lived in a bipolar world dominated by two superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the global order shifted into a unipolar world, with the United States acting as the sole global superpower—exerting raw power and dominating global…

07/30/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Today’s Grain Market Focus: Geopolitics On the Grains: Wheat futures surged overnight as Ukrainian drones ​attacked a major grain ‌export terminal at Russia's Taman port on the Kerch ​Strait linking the ​Black Sea and the Sea ⁠of Azov, inflicting “significant ​damage.” Three of Russia's biggest Black Sea grain terminals, including ZTKT at Taman, had already restricted grain deliveries arriving by truck. As loadings and shipments from the Black and Azov seas slow, Russia is expected to lean harder on its Baltic ports, though they handle only a small fraction of Russian grain exports and the longer route is both time consuming and more costly. With a smaller Russian crop being harvested and July shipments already trimmed, the logistics tax on the world’s biggest wheat supplier is rising. Corn and soybeans, which faced heavy selling on pressure from an improved weather outlook on Wednesday, mildly rebounded on the coattails of wheat’s surge. Weather models continue to show widespread rains over a large area of the Corn Belt during the next week, including some of the driest areas. Weather models haven’t changed… market focus and leadership has. With several major volatile factors driving…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/29/2026 August Weather Outlook Improving/Brazil Expansion Pausing PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Not surprisingly, oppressive heat over the weekend chipped away at crop condition ratings with some regions reaching triple digits temps. While extreme heat continues to linger in North Dakota, the worst appears to be behind us as temperatures fall back within normal ranges. We keep hearing that crops look better than expected but will need a rain soon. The forecast does show a strong chance of widespread showers this next week bringing relief of 1" or more in many areas. This rain won't be enough to get us to the finish line, but it will be an extremely important rain as time has run out. Figure 1: Rainfall Forecast Through August 2nd Stress Degree Days are quickly accumulating, surpassing the 140-point day threshold, generally considered to be detrimental to yield in many areas in the Western Corn Belt. Follow the red line in the image below. Most of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and large portions of South Dakota are well past the threshold. There are regions in South Central South Dakota…

07/29/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wetter Forecast Pressures Beans; China Buying Opportunity? On the Grains After a firmer start, soybeans turned lower overnight and are posting double-digit losses early this morning. November soybeans have dropped below Tuesday’s lows and bears are now targeting the bottom of the July 20 gap at $12.04. Corn and wheat futures are drifting lower on spillover from soybeans. Near-term weather forecasts continue to call for above-normal temperatures to persist over at least the next two weeks, though oppressive heat isn’t expected. Traders’ greater weather focus is forecasts calling for multiple rainfall chances, including in the dry areas of the western and northern Corn Belt, during that timeframe to provide relief from recent crop stress. The European model continues to show more rainfall than the U.S. model, but even the American model signals relatively widespread rains through Aug. 5. China state stockpiler Sinograin will auction 503,694 MT of soybean reserves procurred from 2022 to 2025 to the domestic market on Friday. This is the first soybean auction of state reserves since Jan. 13. Key will be the volumem purchased and the average sales price. Regular weekly sales of around 500,000 MT…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/28/2026 No Good Exit from the Escalation PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Exchanged threats from combatants have gone unheeded in Trumps Middle East war. Trump vows that if Iran attacks any vessel in the region that the US will destroy a bridge, power plant or some other infrastructure target in Iran. Iran's response is that then they will do likewise in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE or Qatar. The disruption of shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf is being extended to the Red Sea. That shuts off an alternate oil export route the Saudis were using via pipeline. Iran also has more missiles left than we do interceptors so US air forces are moving some assets to bases in Israel for dome protection. One could read that as "we are tactically retreating". That said, the airstrikes on Iran continue and some new assets are continually arriving in theater that will bolster US forces there. A military solution has not shown promise to date and Iran shows no interest in a political one to date. These threats are exchanged, then made good upon,…

07/28/2026 New Reco Day 3: Reward the soybean rally by setting a sales target of 10% of November 2027 soybeans at $12. We are already well advanced on 2026 sales. If you are behind, we advise catching up on those sales. While we believe there is still long-term upside potential, the market is perceived to be overbought and susceptible to eventual corrections. Call your broker for short-dated option ideas that may help add value to your sales. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Split Focus Leads to Quieter Overnight Trade On the Grains Corn futures are trying to cling to mild corrective gains after the sharp decline in crop condition ratings. Weakness in the soybean and wheat markets is limiting buyer interest. November soybeans entered the July 20 chart gap but haven’t fill it, leaving a target for bears at $12.04. Overnight price action signals corn crop deterioration has a little of traders’ attention, though forecasts calling for moderating though still above-normal temperatures and multiple rainfall chances are limiting…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/27/2026 Too Hot Too Long PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update You have your full yield potential until you don't. We started out with it nationally this year which is not the case every year. Planting went great and conditions were favorable until post 4rth of July when the heat dome arrived. If I were looking only in my own backyard, we still likely have full yield potential. Given forecast temps, by the end of this week that may no longer be the case. Up until last week favorable crop condition still stood a chance of producing a record US yield. So much for a cool/wet El Nino summer. It was not drought so much as the heat that is the problem. We have enough subsoil moisture, that if temps had been average, we would have made the crop. Crops are drawing hard on that subsoil moisture where it exists. Rain now would be timely. Our farms are now at the 140 thresholds for cumulative SDDs but SD, ND, NE, MN and even IA are now taking damage getting cooked that will…

07/27/2026 Grains Exhibiting Newton’s Law New Reco Day 2: Reward the soybean rally by setting a sales target of 10% of November 2027 soybeans at $12. We are already well advanced on 2026 sales. If you are behind, we advise catching up on those sales. While we believe there is still long-term upside potential, the market is perceived to be overbought and susceptible to eventual corrections. Call your broker for short-dated option ideas that may help add value to your sales. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical issues. On the Grains Grain and soy markets are under heavy pressure to open the week. Most of the markets have erased a good portion of last week’s strong gains. Soyoil and SRW wheat are trading below their July 17 closes. Grain markets are proving what goes up must come down – and the only certainty in the current market environment is extreme volatility. Geopolitics: Middle East tensions have eased for now as the U.S.…

Grains were expected to develop a firmer tone on rising war risk premium, both involving Iran and Russia/Ukraine. Weather remained threatening but the present heat was balanced against a wetter forecast for the week ahead. In the Headlines Ukraine struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea this weekend, linking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that Russia was providing satellite data to help Iran's attacks in the Middle East. Ukraine also continued to launch drones against power infrastructure on the Crimean Peninsula and Russia responded with strikes near Ukraine's capital of Kiev. The latest hostilities dampened the likelihood of the tacit agreement returning for Russia and Ukraine not to disrupt exports. Tariffs led the headlines at the end of the week as President Trump issued new levies on over 80 countries covering 99 percent of U.S. trade volume. The tariffs are structured under an alternative Section 301 authority. Two small businesses became the first to fight against the new order with a suit filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade. Only one flash sale was announced listing China as the buyer of U.S. soybeans last week, with an unknown destination attached with two more cargos of soybeans on…