The Commstock Report

Grains set up for a mixed start while bids and offers stack up a little firmer for corn and weaker for soybeans. Price action will stay heavily dependent on the starting swings for equities, oil, metals, and the dollar. In the Headlines Bitcoin was selling off over the weekend to extend its 5-day loss to more than $10,000, to around $78,000. Observers are seeing a combination of selling by 'whales' holding the largest positions and by traders forced to liquidate for having too much leverage. Outflows from exchange-traded-funds were especially notable on Friday as financial markets were readjusting on news that President Trump had picked a nominee for central bank chair. Trump's Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh surprised the market because of Warsh's hawkish-leaning history covering his time as a Fed governor through the 2008 financial crisis. Part of the market response was for the dollar to strengthen while cryptocurrencies and metals corrected lower. Interest rate odds were largely unaffected for the moment so that the next cut to the Fed funds rate was still expected for June. Crude oil was in focus after prices rallied on new tensions with Iran. There was talk of resuming nuclear talks but also…

This week's average daily trading range for silver futures has been more than $18 per ounce, or $90,000 per contract. Volatility readings skyrocketed for silver, rivaled only by the massive swings for natural gas futures, with their February contract expiring on Wednesday after surging 240 percent over the previous seven sessions. More tame but still also on the rise were volatility levels in the stock market. Volatility index futures for the S&P 500 made contract lows earlier this month and have risen more than 20 percent since then. Stock traders see nervousness expressed in the dollar index, which was volatile enough to gap lower at the start of the week. Crude oil futures have recorded their highest volatility since last summer when the market dropped to $55 and then shot up to $78.   While many markets have had unprecedented doses of volatility this week, the grain and livestock trades were quiet by comparison. The January crop report rout boosted grain futures volatility ever so slightly, but price movements compressed again so that corn traded within a weekly range of less than 10 cents and soybeans less than 20. Livestock options similarly show subdued volatility expectations even after hogs have…

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.   https://youtu.be/8F_oPKKsBiw?si=RRrviZYwU2w87YQF   On the Grains   Corn and soybeans are under pressure early this morning, while the wheat markets are also starting to weaken. Wheat futures are still working on weekly gains, led by SRW contracts, while soybeans are near unchanged for the week and corn is lower.   Grain and soy markets are quiet compared to the sharp drop in gold and silver overnight, which were in part pressured by a firmer dollar as President Trump plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as his choice for next Fed chair. Warsh, who served on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and has advised Trump on economic policy, would still need Senate confirmation after being selected by Trump.   The dollar firmed overnight amid speculation Warsh may be less enthusiastic to cut rates than other candidates given his past warnings of inflation risks and more recent calls for the Fed to reduce its balance sheet. However, he has more recently echoed Trump's criticism of the Fed for being too slow to ease monetary…

What is ethane? If you guessed that it was an industrial hydrocarbon gas you would be right. More specifically, it is the feedstock from which ethylene is produced. Ethylene is an ingredient used in the manufacturing of many industrial products… plastics (polyethylene, PVC, polystyrene), antifreeze (ethylene glycol), textiles (polyester), detergents, solvents, and packaging materials like foam insulation, as well as in agriculture to ripen fruits. It's the world's most produced organic compound, essential for creating products like plastic bags, pipes, medical devices, tires, and even as a sterilizing agent for food and medical supplies. China imports a lot of it…80% of its industrial needs.  The US was the largest producer of ethane and by far the dominant exporter of ethane to China. Used to be that is. Past tense.   President Trump mistook ethane for having “rare earth mineral-like” leverage in trade with China. We had it…they needed it…sort of thing. All true. However, unlike rare earth minerals, which China controls via having 90% of global processing, there are alternative suppliers of ethane China could get what they needed from. Last May the US placed export licensing requirements on US ethane exports going to China and stopped two ships carrying ethane…

01/29/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitical Tension Heighten – Again On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat extended Wednesday’s gains during the overnight session. SRW wheat futures pushed above yesterday’s highs, while corn and soybeans remained below those levels. Crude oil firmed more than $1, while gold and silver rose to new highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions. President Trump warned Iran to make a deal on nuclear weapons, or the next U.S. attack would be far worse. “Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS - one that is good for all parties,” Trump wrote. Tehran responded with a threat to strike back against the United States, Israel and those who support them. Iran’s foreign minister said the country’s armed forces “are prepared - with their fingers on the trigger - to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression.” But he also said, “Iran has always welcomed a mutually beneficial, fair and equitable NUCLEAR DEAL - on equal footing, and free from coercion, threats, and intimidation - which ensures Iran’s rights to PEACEFUL nuclear technology and guarantees NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.” Expectations For Export Sales…

01/28/2026 Screwed Again and Again but we Vote for them Anyway PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The US House passed a spending bill that did not include either additional farm aid or nationwide year-around E-15. I was not surprised about the lack of additional aid payments. While representatives of both parties proposed competing additional spending proposals, the powers that be oppose it. We get our $12 bln bridge aid and there will be farm program ARC/PLC payments coming later in October. That will be all that we can count on. However, it is an election year so they still may try to buy votes with additional aid, but it will likely come later in the year on their time schedule rather than when it is needed. The AFBF did a good job of explaining that there are substantive uncovered losses in all crops by these payments, but farmers are likely going to have to eat them. Some argue that if the government covers all of the losses, then the market doesn’t work.  Low prices signal overproduction and a need to reduce acres. That will not happen if losses from low…

01/28/2026 Trump Pledges Year-Round E15 Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical issues. On the Grains Soybeans led overnight gains and are around a dime higher early this morning, extending to the highest levels since late December. Corn and wheat also strengthened during overnight trade. President Trump used an appearance Tuesday in Clive, Iowa (suburb of Des Moines), to declare that the U.S. has staged “the most dramatic one-year turnaround of any country in history,” while making an explicit play to lock down a politically pivotal biofuels promise: year-round E15. Trump said he had held off on announcing the move until he could do it “in person” in Iowa, and told the crowd he is “trusting Speaker Mike Johnson… and Leader John Thune” to broker a deal that works for “farmers, consumers and refiners, including small and mid-sized refineries.” His wording mattered. Trump did not describe an immediate executive action; instead, he noted a path through Congress — and his own role as the closer who will sign the bill. He suggested the timeline would be fast, saying a bill would reach his desk “very quickly” and that he would sign…

01/27/2026 The ICE Man Cometh for Livestock Producers PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Feed costs are favorable, but a number of major challenges are contributing to cost inflation in the pork and other livestock industries. We all know that hog barns, feedlots, and dairies use a strong component of undocumented immigrants in their labor force. Super-charged Immigration enforcement is no longer a potential threat that is coming…ICE is here and it is having an impact on the labor force used by livestock producers in this region. Workers are gone…disappeared. For example, ICE was reportedly waiting outside the school in Sibley Iowa for the parents to come pick up their kids so they could move on them. Many other cities and counties are reporting visits by ICE with one report of ICE visiting a county jail which is actually where they ought to be checking (Cerro Gordo County). They had none…just American criminals. That is dominantly the case. Hog producers tell me that workers they typically hired to wash barns are gone. Regular employees are absent and replacements are nowhere to be found. There is a critical labor shortage in livestock barns developing in…

01/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Switches to Non-U.S. Oilseeds On the Grains Corn, soybeans and SRW wheat have rebounded from earlier weakness to mildly favor the upside early this morning. Fresh news remains limited, though the broader marketplace is focused on happenings in Washington, as odds of a partial government shutdown are elevated due to an impasse on funding for the Department of Homeland Security amid the ICE situation in Minneapolis. President Trump travels to Iowa today where he is expected to give a short speech in Clive and then head short distance to tour an ethanol facility. Trump is expected to emphasize his administration’s support for agriculture and renewable fuels, while casting his broader economic agenda as a push to make food, fuel and household goods more affordable. No major announcements regarding E15 or biofuels policy is expected. After completing purchases of the first 12 MMT of U.S. soybean commitments, Chinese buyers have booked at least 25 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for March to April delivery, Bloomberg reported, driven by price economics. Brazilian soybeans for late winter/early spring delivery are much cheaper than U.S. supplies. Chinese buyers also recently booked up to 10…

I made the paper (Des Moines Register) recently and it was not for being arrested or showing up in the obituaries. I did participate in a demonstration, so to speak, at the Iowa State Capitol.  I joined ethanol and CO2 pipeline supporters who were lobbying against an Iowa House Bill that would bar use of eminent domain for virtually anything. That was overkill. It was no surprise that the bill passed in the House, however it is not going further from there and is like the bill that Governor Reynolds vetoed last session. There was a strong show of opposition from the ethanol industry to the bill personified in the group I joined at the capital. House members who voted for this bill should not receive the endorsement of the Iowa Corn Growers Association or Iowa Farm Bureau Federation next election. Last fall I traveled to Washington DC with a Carbon Board group who lobbied for 45Z. I had never participated in lobbying the Iowa legislature before. I wanted the experience.   The Iowa Legislature is dealing with eminent domain. There is at least one in every bushel so you will not be able to plan a route for a…