07/08/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Will The Heat Rob Our Yield?

The move this week confirmed a key reversal bottom that was well telegraphed.  What we don’t yet know is whether it is a short term low or something more permanent.  What has changed?  Above average heat appears to linger longer than previously estimated….through July and perhaps well into August.  South Dakota (and parts of North Dakota and Minnesota) look to catch the brunt of it with temperatures reaching 10 degrees above average before pulling back slightly later this month.  Coincidentally, those same areas experienced below average precipitation to start the season adding additional stress to crops.  The majority of the Corn Belt will experience 5 to 6 degrees above average.  While it may not be extreme heat, water demand by crops will increase.   The market response following the holiday weekend would indicate that significant yield was lost this week.   One private analyst has already announced they are trimming the national corn yield by 2 bpa.  While that is still possible, I do not yet believe that to be the case yet.  While not true everywhere, much of Iowa is well positioned for heat with a full water table.  I drove through large portions of Central Iowa and NW Iowa…