04/28/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Biggest Chokepoint Disruption Ever Seen

Every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the balance sheet of global oil supply/demand deteriorates a little further. It has now passed the point of concern to where it is becoming a major crisis. 20% of the world’s oil/gas moved through the Strait but there are some alternatives such as pipelines that were underutilized, latent production capacity elsewhere from the Mid-East that could be brought on-line as well as reserve stocks that could fill a temporary shortage of supply that gets users by for a while before the real crunch hits. The alternative transportation routes and reserve supplies initially reduce the shortage to near 9% but that grows as strategic reserves are exhausted and the flow of commodities from the Gulf is not restored. There was an initial assumption based primarily on president Trumps assertions that the supply shortfall would be a relatively brief disruption that is now morphing into the reality that he was wrong and it is protracting. The replacement cost of barrel of oil will rise further. The supply shortfall is not evenly distributed between countries. China got 80% of its oil through the strait, Japan 93% and South Korea 70% plus 20% of its…