04/08/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Drought Areas Seen Getting Smaller

Following the Iran ceasefire agreement, the grain market appears to be holding up relatively well all things considered.  We had been giving back war premium prior to this ceasefire and so it would make sense that when the actual ceasefire is announced, reactions were thus a bit more muted.  December corn closed at $4.70 on February 27th, the day before massive operations began against Iran and we are currently only 4 cents over that.  Undoubtedly managed money has been building a long position and may look to defend it.  There will be many details that need to be worked out related to the Iran conflict, but we expect focus will shift more towards the fundamentals, principal among those being weather.  There are reasons to be bullish, but most of them can be nullified by a positive weather outlook.   April rainfall appears to be mostly cooperative.  The earliest my soybeans have ever been planted is April 23rd, and I expect they will be planted before that this year.  Temperature outlooks lean normal to above average for approximately 80% of the Corn Belt.  We see drought risks being limited to the outer edges of the Corn Belt in the next couple…