01/30/26 Long or Short Volatility?

This week’s average daily trading range for silver futures has been more than $18 per ounce, or $90,000 per contract. Volatility readings skyrocketed for silver, rivaled only by the massive swings for natural gas futures, with their February contract expiring on Wednesday after surging 240 percent over the previous seven sessions. More tame but still also on the rise were volatility levels in the stock market. Volatility index futures for the S&P 500 made contract lows earlier this month and have risen more than 20 percent since then. Stock traders see nervousness expressed in the dollar index, which was volatile enough to gap lower at the start of the week. Crude oil futures have recorded their highest volatility since last summer when the market dropped to $55 and then shot up to $78.   While many markets have had unprecedented doses of volatility this week, the grain and livestock trades were quiet by comparison. The January crop report rout boosted grain futures volatility ever so slightly, but price movements compressed again so that corn traded within a weekly range of less than 10 cents and soybeans less than 20. Livestock options similarly show subdued volatility expectations even after hogs have…