01/06/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Is Corn Market A Repeat of Last Year?

I don’t see the bottom cycle in grains as being over yet.  That doesn’t mean we can’t have short term rallies, but long-term obstacles continue to linger.  Favorable weather has created an oversupply both in the US and abroad.  The US and Brazil have produced bumper crops in back-to-back years setting new production records.  Brazil’s 25/26 season is far from written, but most of the crop outlook there will be determined by the end of January.  That means we have less than 4 weeks of critical growing weather before we will have a pretty good idea on how big of a crop they will have.  Even low-end of current estimates would mean a new record in terms of Brazil’s soybean production.   For the moment, it seems like the markets are looking for a repeat of last year.  August of 2024 saw the corn market bottom before rallying in February.  August of 2025 also made a seasonal bottom, and since then has slowly been grinding higher.  The corn market is moving in an upward channel that will eventually need to break out one way or the other.  I bought ten-cent calls on this recent break looking for a gradual move…