11/26/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – What does Brazil and Kazakhstan Have In Common?

Brazil’s rainfall pattern this week did not appear to materialize as far South as originally predicted. Most of Mato Grosso, Goiás and MABITOBA received 1″ to 4″ this week but Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and parts of Minas Gerais were left with nothing. The forecast continues to show that this dry pattern is short term, bringing heavy volumes of precipitation to start out the month of December. RGDS will be the only state that appears void of precipitation to start the month along with neighboring Argentina. These regions have been well saturated and so this will provide a strong buffer going into a potential “veranico”. Our concern is that these regions will now accelerate planting, with limited rainfall on the horizon to help seeds germinate.   As predicted, planting pace seems to have accelerated last week, reaching 82% overall. A big portion of the areas that remain to be planted are those in RGDS which are shifting drier. This brings planting pace back closer to its historical pace. We don’t see planting pace as being a material issue as farmers have time to replant. It does however shorten the window (and yield potential) for second crop corn that follows….