10/16/25 Grain Yield Reality Check: Harvest Disappoints USDA Targets

10/16/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grain Yield Reality Check: Harvest Disappoints USDA Targets On the Grains Good morning, David Shively in for Brian today. Harvest continues pace. There are spots where we are hearing of record/near record yields, but these areas seem to be few and far between. Northeast Missouri might have raised their best corn ever (or at least right up there) but their beans, while above average, were damaged by the August/September dry spell, and aren’t setting any records. Iowa corn has suffered under disease (southern rust) pressure, Illinois crops are good, but generally not as good as last year. A producer in Oklahoma told me his irrigated corn was exceptional, but he expects to be disappointed in his beans. There were dry spots out east, variability in the west… At the end of the day to reach the ridiculously high USDA target yield for corn, we were going to need record or near record yields throughout most of the corn belt. At this point I feel fairly confident telling you that record yields in Northeast Missouri don’t make up for non-record yields in the I-states. While there is still a lot of…