When we began our planning for 2025 crops, we made the assumption very early that there would be a trade war tariff related to Trump ACH paid to farmers made at some point. There was a similar payment made in Trump’s first term, funded from the CCC. The CCC funding is depleted so they will have to find a new source of funding. That will be tariff revenue. There are a lot of “ifs” but we could see that through a combination of revenue insurance (regardless of yield), Trump tariff aid ACHs, PLC/ARC payments to come later and some help from marketing that we should be able to hold our money together this year. I still think that will be the case. Basis our advice, a significant portion of that risk should still be covered by revenue insurance and hedges. The Trump tariff aid is starting to come together, reportedly close to an announcement. It will take a functioning government for USDA to be able to make the payments and they did not have the tariff aid package complete before the shut-down. They wish to fund it more directly from tariff revenue. FOX news was repeatedly telling listeners of the…
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