10/03/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Grain Market Outlook: Bull vs Bear

Bullish or bearish on the grains? Consider both sides of the issues and decide whether you are on one end of the extreme or somewhere closer to the middle. Nothing in the market is black and white, especially the political factors, so form your outlook based on objectivity about what you think will happen rather than what you want to happen or what you think should happen.   Bearish: The government shutdown is going to delay the crop reports from coming out to confirm lower corn and soybean yields while data may also be kept away from the public if China and other countries are busy buying U.S. grain exports. Commodity trading funds could turn long the grains without having their position changes telegraphed. Having no updates on crop progress means traders will not know when harvest activity has peaked.   Bullish: It is a good thing not have USDA slow-playing the necessary yield cuts when evidence from the farmer and the market responses from the commercial side will be enough to corroborate missed yield potential this season. Not having the grain export data is no big deal if positive headlines about China restore confidence in soybean demand for the…