09/24/25 Harvest Pressure Will Challenge Market Rally

Thoughts on US corn crop size continue to slide lower, but are still seen as a record, especially when considering planted area reaching nearly 99 million acres. One could become a bit more positive on the short-term outlook if it were not for the fact that we are at the early stages of harvesting a potential 16.8 billion bushels. This is roughly 1.5 billion bushels more than the previous record in 2023. Grain bins are reportedly in hot demand as farmers look for a place to put it all. Last year saw prices recede some 30 cents during the October/November harvest season before they began a long recovery higher. Considering we are in uncharted territory when it comes to record production, it would make sense for the market to want to see additional yield confirmation before any significant rally can occur.   Rainfall seems concentrated in the Eastern Corn Belt this week, bringing 2″ – 3″ to some of the driest areas of MO, IN and OH. In terms of helping crops, it will be too little, too late. We spoke with growers in Southern Ontario, Canada (North of Ohio) and they said yields on good soil were off 50…