09/22/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Harvesting Our Most Unprofitable Crop of Soybeans Ever

Combines will be rolling in earnest here this week harvesting what I believe may be a lallapalooza of a loser of a soybean crop given the price outlook. ISU extension estimates the 2025 cost of production right at $11.00 bushel. The soybean market is nowhere near the cost of production and likely to get worse before it gets better. Our local elevator basis is terrible at 75 cents under for about a $1.50 per bushel loss before today. Some soybean farmers have a much worse basis than that. High yields will, with rare exception, not push that to profitability. It takes a significant rally to reach breakeven. First, the soybean market has to bottom and there is no such thing confirmed on charts yet. The 2024 August 945 low is still technically threatened to be taken out. A big harvest and poor demand are not a great combination. We went with 70% corn on our farm this year but corn profitability will not carry the soybean crop. If the trade outlook doesn’t change, US farmers may plant fewer soybeans again next year, potentially ruining the corn market too. We are 80% hedged at an average price of 10.37. Nothing special….