07/03/2025 Alert the Press

On the Grains
As directed, the market shook off the news about crop conditions and traded sharply higher yesterday. News of a Vietnam trade deal did get markets fired up, yet we knew a month ago that an agreement had been reached, however, we still don’t know the specifics of it. News of President Trump having a big announcement in Iowa tonight was also tied to the sharply higher trade. If that announcement is based on actual numbers from Vietnam or, even better yet, China, we could be in for one heck of a ride after the 4th. Yet, as I am generally a glass-is-half-full type of guy, this doesn’t excite me all that much. We had a deal with China, yet they never held up their end of the agreement due to some fine print. I am taking all these stories with a grain of salt. December corn closing above the $4.28 level was critical if we want to mount some rally on weather after the 4th of July. After crop conditions were released on Monday, it was a race to the top in yield predictions, starting with a forecast of 181.5 BPA (USDA) and ending the day at 190 BPA. I believe the market finally came to its senses and realized how ridiculous that sounded on 95 million acres. I think when looking at the good-to-excellent numbers, there is a lot of “good” and limited “excellent” corn in the U.S. right now. Statistically, we are due for a trendline crop, it’s been since 2018, yet only time will tell if 2025 does it. Export sales estimates for corn are 560-1700 KMT.