07/02/2025 Shake it Off and Update on Biofuels

On the Grains
When my dogs jump into the water off the boat, retrieving a stick, the first thing they do when they get back in the boat is shake it off, which is what the row crop markets attempted to do yesterday, as there wasn’t much to trade from the quarterly stocks and acres report. Hence, the focus was on crop conditions, and we had a negative undertone to deal with. With those crop conditions, I’ve heard national yield estimates ranging from 175-185 BPA. I’m going to be conservative and say we will fall somewhere in between (HA). However, while exports for the 2025/26 crop year are lower than this year’s blistering pace, they are still high to start with. We have a dollar that has fallen to levels not seen since 2022, which we rallied to 110 that year (although it is doubtful this year will reach that level). While it’s difficult to cash that check just yet, keep an eye on it because our products are on sale, especially if you are a tributary to the export market. The lower dollar is helping us remain competitive with South America.