06/30/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – June Quarterly USDA Stocks and Planted Acreage Reports

One wonders with all of the DOGE disruption that has been going on at USDA if we can trust that the work was getting done. However, there were times when I didn’t trust the work before so what has changed? Corn exports have exceeded expectations but that may have been offset because chicken/livestock numbers have been down. Then again, livestock weights have been heavy to offset fewer numbers.  USDA says that corn usage has not materially depleted stocks. USDA says that we had the supply, reporting June stocks of 4.644 bln bushel, 3 mln bushels above the average trade guess. As the 2025 crop was planted early, harvest may come early as well, narrowing the window for when new crop becomes available. Despite strong exports there is no shortage. USDA estimated quarterly soybean stocks of 1.008 bln bushels, 28 mln above the average trade estimate. Soybean stocks are 38 mln bushels larger than a year ago. We will be dependent on domestic crush for soybean demand as China is further moving purchases to South America. Quarterly wheat stocks of 851 mln bushel were 15 mln bushel above the average trade estimate. There was no ray of sunshine for the bulls…