03/14/2025 Tacky Tariffs

On the Grains
Finally, Friday. What a week it’s been for row crop futures, as it has been a mentally exhausting market to trade. Now, we can look forward to a break this weekend. President Trump continues to hold firm on his EU tariff talks, which most ag markets didn’t appreciate. Only time will tell what develops over the weekend. Fundamentally, corn still has an underlying story for the old crop, with export sales and shipments well ahead of last year’s pace. This week, the USDA reported sales of 38.1 MBU, while slightly off the previous two weeks’ pace, it still leaves us 25% ahead of the 23/24 crop. I get the USDA slow-playing it with all the tariff news, yet I just don’t see how we don’t adjust that number higher. CONAB came out with an increase in Brazilian corn, raising yields from 122 to 122.8 MMT, which is still 3.2 MMT behind the USDA’s estimates. The point here is that they can have some great weather and still not exceed what the USDA has on the balance sheet.