02/28/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Stock Market Nervousness Spilling Over

It was easy to point at the USDA Outlook Forum estimates as the reason for grain futures sliding sharply on Thursday, but that was not the only point of bearish input for the market. Also conspiring against the grains were technical selling pressures, negative tariffs news, and the related risk-off sentiment prevailing over outside financial markets. That grain prices had a minor rebound overnight seemed to be a result of stock index futures making a tentative recovery while the dollar index was holding flat, but it was not all systems go for the commodity space because gold and oil were showing steep losses. Tariff worries were eventually too much ahead of the weekend and grains continued their slide lower. The big risk for commodities is going to be that a bearish shift in macroeconomic views causes hedge funds and investors to pull money out of all markets, grains and livestock included.   Today being first notice day for March grain futures was another item on the list of negative influences. The opening of the delivery period puts focus on the wide spread between the March and May contracts, which is the market’s way of saying that the grain is not…