02/13/2025 River Levels, Ratios

Above you will find today’s installment of Morning Market Talk. Corn Jumping on the Struggle Bus You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning’s episode. On the Grains Corn acres continue to be the trade talk as we head into the back half of February and towards the USDA outlook forum. Make no mistake, the market is telling us to plant corn, the November/December ratio is currently at 2.20. A few factors that will play into that yet are fertilizer prices. Urea was up 7% at $525/TN compared with last month, and UAN was up 6% vs last month at $388/TN. Six of the eight major categories were higher, with MAP and Potash slightly lower. If you look back at last year, potash is a buy at $436/TN vs. last year at $508/TN, now, how the possible 25% tariff plays out, we don’t know yet. The University of Illinois reported that they expect that a 25% tariff would increase prices by more than $100 per ton. If history repeats, years with similar ratios had bearish corn acres in perspective planting reports. For example, in 2012, they rose by almost 6%, putting us nearing 95 million…