01/09/2025 The Day After Today

On the Grains
The day before the January USDA report, here we go with the average trade estimates coming in on corn being .4 of a bushel less than the last report. Estimates are for 182.7 BPA on corn. We won’t go through the items line-by-line, but I did post them below. The ending stock numbers, both domestically and globally, are the numbers to keep an eye on, demand for corn has been outstanding. EIA reported yesterday that ethanol production was down slightly at 324 million gallons per week vs. last week’s 327 million gallons. There is nothing to be concerned about at all, as over the last 4 weeks, ethanol production was up 3.2% vs. the same time frame last year as well as exports of ethanol are rebounding. The question remains, will the soybean numbers be too bearish to overcome in the corn pit? At-the-money March weekly corn puts that expire next Friday (1/17/2025) are trading at 6 cents this morning. While you are not getting much time, you are protecting a massive washout on unpriced inventories.