01/06/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Corn/Soybeans Markets from 50,000 Foot View

Let’s start the New Year by standing back and taking a big picture view of these markets. The corn market outperformed the soybean market in 2024 ending the year with a significant recovery from its August low with the March contract that we are working with now having recovered 57 cents to a recent high near 460 where weekly chart resistance begins. The initial rally was 3 waves up from that August low which is corrective suggesting the recovery is part of a major correction in what is still a bear market. There is as yet no confirmation that the correction has climaxed.   While corn production scored a record high yield in 2024, it was not the record that the trade once thought it was, being trimmed by USDA late season. The same could be said for soybeans which were impacted by the late season drought more than corn. My corn yield was 19% under my APH, impacted by flooding, and generated a revenue insurance claim. In the case of corn demand, it was underestimated during the demand season in all categories: exports, feed and ethanol usage. There was a significant regional disparity where corn west of I-35 saw…