01/06/2025 Cattle March Higher, Time Marches On

On the Grains
The billion-dollar question remains: what will happen to the Ag markets after January 20th? We all know that markets generally do not like uncertainty, especially after building a long position. Friday’s selling wasn’t much more than profit-taking, and with the current forecast in Argentina and Southern Brazil, it would lead us to believe that we still have a few weeks to add some additional risk premium to the market. As the crop is 93% planted in Argentina, which is 4% ahead of average, it’s all about the forecast now. Exports continue to impress as sales run 30% above 2023, and USDA only projects an 8% year-over-year. We should be on target to meet, if not exceed, those projections even though Friday’s numbers were on the low side of estimates. The January 10th report will be our final yield numbers for 2024. I will be waiting for and posting the average trade guesses this week. Overnight energies are playing a part in supporting the row crops. Crude oil is up 30 cents at $74.30, while natural gas, on the back of a wild weekend storm, is up 28 cents vs January.