12/16/2024 Row Crop Recovery

On the Grains
Good morning, welcome to the last full week of trading for the year. The NOPA report is out today with traders expecting 196.7 million bushels (MB), the trading range is 191-207 vs the October final at 200 MB. The average trade guess would be 4.1% above last year’s 189 MB. The market needs to see increased crushing numbers as the Nov-Aug balance-of-year needs to average 5.1% above the previous year if we’re going to hit that 2.41 billion-bushel estimate, a number that feels attainable. The NOPA number could be enough to get the soybeans out of the range-bound trade we have seen the last 6 weeks, but the number would have to be sizable, surprising traders on either side. Technical support on soybeans hasn’t changed as the contract low of $9.73 ½ remains support and resistance of $10.01 ½, although $10.00 sociological resistance is probably just as much of a player as anything else. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center came out late last week with a 59% chance of a weak La Nina by the end of January, while it is early and no soybeans are at risk yet, it at least isn’t a bearish price headline.