11/20/24 Brazil’s Soybean Production Area Could Be Overstated

Much of Brazil’s Center West region is on the home stretch, looking to wrap up planting this week while many farmers have been done for some time. Planting pace continues to stay ahead of the historical average, surpassing 80% complete overall this week. RGDS is typically the last state to finish planting, and it is already approaching the halfway mark. Planting pace is now beginning to slow down as we reach the finish line. There will likely be less than 10% left to plant as we reach December 1st. But what matters most to the market is that the bulk of the soybeans appear to be going in on time and without any significant issues.   Last year, it was the week of November 20th when the market topped out following a dry spell in Mato Grosso. It then began a slow and steady descent over a 90-day period, giving up nearly $3/bushel, finally finding a bottom in late February. Could history repeat itself? Last year Brazil lost 10 MMT to drought and the market still moved significantly lower. So far this year we don’t currently see any major weather issues propping up the market and so it is hard to…