11/15/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – Gut Check Time for Grain Bulls

Friday felt like a last stand for the grain bulls after a week full of negative news and several key technical failings. Corn, wheat, and soybean futures fell four sessions in a row to test the next round of chart points thought to be significant to quantitative-based trading funds. Other discretionary funds had been selling commodities this week on the input from outside financial markets, particularly from the sharply higher dollar. Grains did finish the week on a positive note, although it was by no means a convincing victory for the bulls.   It is important to appreciate that there is still a considerable army of bullish grain traders willing to play defense against their positions. Coming into the week, it was the first time that the managed money funds had turned net-long in corn futures and options since the summer of 2023. The large speculators held over 273,000 contracts long to oppose other similar funds who remained short by about 251,000 contracts. Fund positions held just moderately net-short in soybeans and wheat; however, futures prices were not far from recent lows, so speculators could turn reluctant to rebuild shorts at much lower price levels than what they had sold…