10/02/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – Brazil’s Forecasts Sees Rain After October 10th

Brazil’s Central growing region remains dry this week, but next week’s forecast finally sees some precipitation trickling in. Volumes remain low, but most regions should see between 0.5″ to 1.5″. While this is not sufficient to build any soil moisture, it may encourage producers to accelerate planting with the hope that more will be on the way. The northwest corner of Mato Grosso continues to be the sweet spot receiving the bulk of the rains as well as in RGDS. But pretty much everything in between remains below average. The 30-day weather outlook for October shows improvement but it all appears to be back ended. We don’t see much of the rainfall starting to build until October 10th.   Our research suggests we are still in the very early stages of Brazil’s planting window. Historically Brazil has had roughly 10% of their crop planted around October 6th. They will likely fall short of that this year. 70% of their crop should be planted by November 23rd. November was our primary planting season on our farm in Bahia. The point is that while Brazil is arguably a week behind on their planting, there is still plenty of time to catch up…