09/27/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – Choosing the Right Mix of Selling, Holding, and Hedging Grain

Fall started this week and seemed to leave the speculators buying into what is usually known to be a more bullish seasonal period just ahead for grain futures. For speculators to continue covering short positions is one thing, but is expected that sustained strength for grain prices would rely on the commodity trading funds eventually building significant bullish bets again. “A bull market always needs to be fed,” so the direction of the managed money position will itself depend on a steady flow of friendly news and data.   The next test for sentiment begins on Monday already, with USDA issuing the Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports. This is the update that can include the yield and acreage revisions for the previous crops. The average trade guesses slightly favor seeing reductions to last year’s corn and soybean production estimates. The ranges of the ending stocks estimates show the extreme alternatives of corn stocks being as low as 1.655 billion bushels with the most bearish view for the 2024 carryout to rise back above 2 billion. Soybean stocks are currently pegged in the area of 350 million bushels, with a range extending up to almost 450 mbu, after measuring…