09/24/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – “This rally is BULLSHIT!”

Little has changed in Brazil’s weather forecast for major growing areas since last week. The market is becoming increasingly sensitive to a potential delayed start of the rainy season. One Brazilian grain trader contact described this rally as “bullshit”. His reason was that a late start to Brazil’s soybean crop didn’t mean anything to the final size of the bean crop. He argued that it will have a greater impact on the second crop corn crop that followed. While he is correct, the market is still going to react to it. It is no different than if the planting window in the US got pushed back two weeks. It doesn’t mean the crop is a disaster as it has time to recover. But the market is still going to react.   We have spoken with local contacts that typically get an early jumpstart on planting in Mato Grosso and yet are sitting idle. Temperatures are consistently hitting triple digits. Wildfires are popping up everywhere, creating a constant haze blocking out sunlight. It is not a fun place to be right now. Based on the current forecast, there is an increasing likelihood that planting pace will fall below average. Does that…