09/03/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – History Guides us or at Least Used To

In over 5 decades of farming one occurrence repeatedly observed, based upon my past experience, is if our yield was down the price went up and vice versa. If I produced 100 bpa corn and the price was $3 bushel… then if I produced 150 bpa corn the price may be $2 bushel. While the yield and price may have varied greatly, the gross dollars per acre remained relatively stable.  While I have not given up on this relationship yet for this crop…currently both my yield and the price are down, starving the gross dollars per acre. My downside risk stops at my $955 acre corn crop insurance revenue coverage so significant crop revenue insurance indemnities are likely. Yes, the yield challenge in our region (NW IA) has not been recognized by the market. I expect that yield and price are out of line and will adjust toward a more historical relationship with the coming harvest into early 2025. We swept our bins a while ago but those with old crop left in supply deficit regions, with storage available, if finances allow, could profit from holding it at this point until early in the next marketing year. After all, end-users…