08/14/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – Brazil Acreage Growth Prospects Are Limited

The USDA report on Monday provided no additional changes to Brazil’s 23/24 crop season. They did reduce Argentina’s soybean production by 0.5 MMT and their corn production by 2 MMT. CONAB released their August update a day after the USDA, where they reduced Brazil’s corn production estimates by 0.2 MMT placing them at 115.6 MMT compared to the USDA at 122 MMT. CONAB boosted corn acres by 250,000 but reduced production in Parana where later planted fields saw yields drop more than expected. Both agencies have plenty of yield data at this point as all the regions that really matter have wrapped up corn harvest with remaining areas to be harvested falling within the “fringe” areas. This leaves us with a 6.3 MMT gap between USDA and CONAB crop estimates which appears it will go unreconciled.   CONAB did increase their corn export predictions by 3 MMT, taking them to 36 MMT. We feel that additional increases to their exports are warranted and may eventually end up closer to 40 MMT. The second half of the year is when the bulk of Brazil corn exports take place as their corn harvested in July and August begin arriving at the port…