08/21/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – Pre-Season Forecast Shows A Dry Start to Brazil’s 2024/25 Planting Season

The current September – November 2024 seasonal IRI forecasts show ENSO-neutral is expected to continue in Brazil for several months.  This would indicate a below normal precipitation for Brazil’s Center West growing regions heading into the early planting season next month.  Growers in Mato Grosso have been pushing for an earlier start to planting to help them get an earlier start to second crop corn.  This has worked well in previous years, but it did not work well last season.  The rainy season was slow to develop, causing drought losses of up to 10 MMT, much of which the USDA has yet to account for.  Growers may be a bit more hesitant at such an early start.  One grower said he would rather plant later, ensuring that he would have one really good soybean crop, than have two mediocre crops.   It is still early, but some farmers are known to begin planting first crop corn in RGDS by the end of the month.  The dry forecast will likely keep them from an early start.  Brazil’s first crop of corn has been on a slow and steady decline since topping out in 2007/08 at 40 MMT.  CONAB’s has pegged the…