08/05/24 This Looks Serious!

From July 15th, this was an excerpt from the CommStock Report. “Creighton University Economist Ernie Goss is bearish…just about everything. Consumer spending drives US economic growth and Goss believes that we have reached a tipping point where US consumer spending is beginning a contraction. The $trillions in fiscal stimulus of Covid Aid and Inflation Reduction Act has about run its course. He said that after being adjusted for inflation that spending growth was not as strong as it appeared. He tracks a 10 State Main Street and Ag economic bankers, small business and manufacturing survey that we regularly share in this report and he sees the regional economy slowing. He thinks that growth for the rest of the country is slowing too and that a recession lies ahead. He is not in the camp for a soft landing. Commercial real estate is in recession. Goss says that falling home prices in Florida and other bellwether real estate markets are showing weakness that will expand to the general home real estate market soon. He says that in this key bell-whether market, home offerings are increasing and prices are weakening (15%). Goss says that it was taking 40-45% of consumer incomes to…