11/20/2023 Changes in Weather for Brazil and Politics for Argentina at Cross Currents for Markets This Morning

On the Grains:
Grains are mixed in overnight trade as this goes to press, with corn barely steady, beans steady-to-firm and wheat on the soft side again. The forecasts for rain in northern Brazil that hit soybeans hard last week were spotty at best through the weekend, with more widespread rains not starting until today. Further, amounts to fall into late week have been trimmed back to 1.5-2.5″ from 2.5-4.5″ and it’s expected to then turn warm and dry again into December. Similarly, the respite from excessively wet weather in Southern Brazil will be brief and generally persist longer-term.
 
The biggest weekend news was in the geopolitical arena. Though polls had the two candidates for president in Argentina neck-and-neck, the right-leaning political outsider Javier Milei beat the establishment’s center-left Economy Minister Sergio Massa handily in a 56-44% lopsided vote. The surprising margin was best described as “showing the depth of despair in a country suffering 140% inflation and 40% of the population living below the official poverty level.”