11/09/23 Higher Yield Estimates Gifted to Bearish Speculators

Higher than expected corn and soybean yield estimates were the focal point of a bearish crop report, but relative strength for the outlook on demand kept selling in check. Technical influences will remain important for speculative decision making as the fundamental focus returns to weather in South America. December corn futures broke under the key low from September and have initial risk down to the continuous chart low at $4.55 3/4. January soybeans were still holding their recent uptrend and will have a test of support from the 100-day moving average to finish the week. Wheat futures were working with some room ahead of their recent low, but need a quick turnaround to keep momentum from turning negative again. Daily export sales announcements like the large soybean deals reported this morning will be watched for as a signal of attractive price levels and growing worry about conditions in Brazil.   Given the elevated acreage total this season, a higher corn yield helped produce a record high production total of 15.2 billion bushels. At 174.9 for the national average, corn yield was well above the average trade guess of 173.4 bushels per acre, which was also the yield average from last…