11/08/23 Bear Market Is In The Making

Part 2   Typically, the economy is good during an election year. That is because the powers that be do all they can to prime the economic pump with election year goodies…fiscal stimulus. This time would appear to be different. I do not know what Biden has left in his bag of treats to hand out and his political opponents will try to tie the bag shut to take it from him. We have just seen one of the biggest exercises in fiscal stimulus in history with the government’s pandemic recovery spending as the US is also reshoring manufacturing with the largest investment in general and manufacturing investment since WWII. That too is inflationary. It surges demand for materials and labor. As consumers run out of cash and credit is cost prohibitive, demand will eventually be negatively impacted. I have been a bit surprised by the perception that has dominated the public that the economy is bad when statistically it has rarely been better. Maybe the public pessimism is only premature and not misguided. It would look to me like the fuel for stimulus will run out about the time Election Day rolls around in 2024.   There is also…