11/08/2023 Big Surge in Soybean Sales to China Amidst Worsening Brazil Weather Woes

NEW SOYBEAN RECCO DAY 2: Yesterday we advised using the Brazilian weather scare market to sell the first 20% of stored ’23 beans when January futures hit 1374. They hit and exceeded that price in morning trade but couldn’t hold it, but then hit it again in overnight trade. We trust you got the sale made. On the Grains: All the grains are rebounding in overnight trade with soybeans again in the lead with double-digit gains as this goes to press. China booked 600,000 tonnes of U.S. beans yesterday, its biggest 1-day purchases in months. Soybean meal made new contract highs yesterday and matched them again overnight. Soybean oil continues to languish despite tight supplies on the slump in crude oil. Geopolitical threats still threaten the supply outlook for crude, but it’s outweighed for now by pessimistic views of global demand. Tomorrow we get the November WASDE. Based on average pre-release expectations, traders have “dialed in” a slight increase for corn yields and a steady to slightly lower soybean yield. (I’ll have updated pre-report expectations in tomorrow’s AM report ahead of the 11 a.m. release.) Soybeans are leading overnight gains on further evidence that adverse weather is already impacting yield expectations in…