11/03/2023 When Harvest Ends Off Combine Selling Ends Too, Bin Doors Likely Locked Shut For Awhile

On the Grains: Markets are steady to mixed in overnight trade thus far, with corn, soybeans and wheat all within pennies either side of unchanged. Despite rain delays here and there, the pace of harvest continues to rapidly advance overall. I expect Monday’s Crop Progress Report to show bean harvest near complete and corn harvest down to the last 15% or so. Meanwhile, national average basis continues to hold firm. Both corn and beans improved another penny yesterday. As harvest draws to a close, farmer selling will dry up while commercial buying picks up. That should jumpstart a decent post-harvest recovery through the Holiday season. News wise yesterday got off to a poor start after weekly export sales proved disappointing. Looking first at corn, the 784,000 tonnes in new sales were near the lower end of trade expectations ranging from 600K to 1.2 million. They were down 45% from the week before and down 40% from the 4-week average. Corn sagged to match its September low. For perspective, bulls take some comfort that YTD commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) are still up 26.3% from a year ago, running ahead of USDA’s forecast they’ll be up by just under 22% for the marketing year. On…